2018 Wildfire Season

[SumJongGuy]

I’m not getting into this with you. You seem intent on prattling on with no idea of the realities and complexities involved, so it’ll be better (for me) if I just ignore you.

Seems complex, yes, but people pushed out of the cities to build in high risk zones and are getting killed. Perhaps I'm not the only one who doesn't understand the complexities and in intent on "prattling on". I'd think with your experience, decades of fire management, you'd have sage advice for everyone to share here on this topic. Sitting back and listening... and this is how you respond. OK then..

[BCMtnHound]

Seems complex, yes, but people pushed out of the cities to build in high risk zones and are getting killed. Perhaps I'm not the only one who doesn't understand the complexities and in intent on "prattling on". I'd think with your experience, decades of fire management, you'd have sage advice for everyone to share here on this topic. Sitting back and listening... and this is how you respond. OK then..

Forest ecology is extremely complex across the landscape. The politics on how people have moved and set up shop within that landscape is equally complex. There is no silver bullet, and there will be big losers within any strategy that is proposed.
The discussions in BC are similar after a couple bad fire years in a row, and we have only a 10th of the population that California has (with the vast majority of that population in the relatively fire resistant lower fraser valley). I am not envious in any way of the policy-makers down there in California that are being tasked to meet the immediate threat that has increased by many magnitudes over the past decade.

[hutash]

There may be no silver bullet, but a silver rake will solve all our problems.


California has always had wild fires, and lost houses in them, but rarely while neighborhoods, and never a whole community. These are not your grand dad's fites. These devastating fires are a direct result of the worst drought California has experienced in modern times, plus unusually strong winds. Whether this is a direct result on anthropogenic climate change can be discussed, but our house was 60 years old, others in the neighborhood were closer to 80, and never had even a close call or real threat of fire, and we have been through a few of them, so it wasn't even hundreds of years of fuel accumulation, or lack of racking. Hell, we had quite a few fire fighters living in the 'hood, and many lost homes, so it wasn't lack of awareness.

[BCMtnHound]

The compounding of the various factors is almost paralyzing. Average annual temps are rising. Precip is a huge unknown in the models, where, when and amounts that will fall are painfully difficult in our modeling up here right now. Most likely need to prepare for both extremes in rainfall, in most locations.
Our forest management definitely plays a role, noble objectives like sustained yield did not mesh well with natural forest mosaics, further compounded by management practices in the late 19 and early 20th centuries, followed by a provincial level bark beetle epidemic.
Our investments in the interface have risen massively in the past 2 or 3 decades, and a greater % of those investments are insured. Building codes have not kept up, and retrofitting is extremely slow. Interface fuel management is prohibitively expensive, and again almost nonexistent across most private holdings. Local and regional water tables, already stressed by changes in precip patterns, are further drawn down by increased domestic and industrial demand.
And let’s not forget the politics and money supply. Lots of money being generated out there, but it is concentrated and being funnelled out of the public sphere. Everyone wants less taxes, and other social pressures like healthcare and education have already been allocated the lion share of the govt revenue.
And and and..

We’re fucked until we learn somehow to work better, and better together.

[XXX-er]

More than 80 people dead so instead of shutting the fuck up and breaking out the checkbook trump is acting like the asshole that he is and blaming the victims ... don't beat yourself up man

Suffice to say Trump knows nothing about the subject of forest ecology or firefighting or drought or anything at all

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-...ires-1.4910804

Finland's president isn't sure where U.S. President Donald Trump got the idea that raking is part of his country's routine for managing its substantial forests.

[XXX-er]

" Interface fuel management is prohibitively expensive, and again almost nonexistent across most private holdings. Local and regional water tables, already stressed by changes in precip patterns, are further drawn down by increased domestic and industrial demand.
And let’s not forget the politics and money supply. "

everybody seems to think its ^^ a good idea but they talk about it having no idea how much dead fuel is out there and when it comes to sparking up a controlled burn they whine and bitch at the first sign of smoke and they are against building the pellet plant even tho it makes way less pollution by ordere of magnitude than the fibre board plant it replaced

[neckdeep]

Finland's president isn't sure where U.S. President Donald Trump got the idea that raking is part of his country's routine for managing its substantial forests.

Its obvious. He is a confused old man being forced to deal with shit he doesn't understand. His briefings on the fire turn to word soup in his addled mind. Trump was probably told the in-town fire was more intense because there was a lot of light fuels (brush, landscaping, leaves, pine needles, etc.) lying around the yards. That is true. Raking up the leaves in the yard is good fire prevention. So, that basic, easy to grasp fact gets conflated with his bizarre need to throw blame and bash California and forest management. Add to that his deep seated urge to always act like he knows what he is talking about and, next thing you know, he is spouting laughable nonsense about taking rakes into the forest. Like Trump has ever used a rake! The man's concept of nature is a golf course manicured by servants.

Yeah, great idea, Trumpy! All we will need is zillions of plastic lawn bags, a few million spare dump trucks and wood chippers and a landfill the size of Nevada. Each year, every citizen will be conscripted, assigned 25 acres of forest and will spend the months of October and November out tidying up the woods.

Seriously, someone could tell him there would be less fires if the Democrats would just let us wash, wax and polish the trees more often and he would repeat it.

[SkiBall]

Trump knows nothing about forests and such considering how he grew up. Concrete jungle, casinos and golf courses are all he really knows probably. Only dry brush he deals with is golf turf going dormant. Hell, he even got rid of Ivana before she "expired".

[hutash]

Hell, he even got rid of Ivana before she "expired".

Well then, he does something about getting rid of old bush.

[SkiBall]

Well then, he does something about getting rid of old bush.

I stand corrected.

[Rideski]

In one of the news stories I was reading they were talking about the forensics of identifying bone ash from wood ash. If it rains, isn't that potential lost?

[SkiBall]

In one of the news stories I was reading they were talking about the forensics of identifying bone ash from wood ash. If it rains, isn't that potential lost?

They have already stated that they will likely not identify everyone.

[Meadow Skipper]

...These are not your grand dad's fites...

^Truth. That fire that ripped into Santa Rosa CA last year was a pivotal moment. It showed how bad the fire regime has gotten. That fucker burned blocks of houses in town, it burned the K-Mart for crissakes! And Redding this year. The way things have been is not the way things are or are going to be.

And Trump...absolute fucking moron.

[DougW]

Got a question from looking at the coverage. You see burned out houses but still trees near them. It seems that the houses are more likely to burn than trees?? Yes some trees are burned not seems like a lot ate not including softwood.

[Meanfruit]

There's an article circulating around right now explaining that very question. I can't recall where, though. Sorry

[SkiBall]

Got a question from looking at the coverage. You see burned out houses but still trees near them. It seems that the houses are more likely to burn than trees?? Yes some trees are burned not seems like a lot ate not including softwood.

Interesting article using natures survival tools for us. Also possible fire-resistant polymer building material or even paint on to existing. And then goes into underground hobbit holes.
With this years fire, I think it may be a bigger turning point for adapting and preparing for the inevitable like hurricanes, tornadoes, and tsunamis.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/...t-to-wildfires

[old goat]

I see what you did there.


As for the giant fire breaks, clearing big sections of terrain in the mountains opens up the landscape to mudslides. The tree root structure is what's holding everything together. Get rid of the trees and everything washes downward when the rains come.

^Truth. That fire that ripped into Santa Rosa CA last year was a pivotal moment. It showed how bad the fire regime has gotten. That fucker burned blocks of houses in town, it burned the K-Mart for crissakes! And Redding this year. The way things have been is not the way things are or are going to be.

And Trump...absolute fucking moron.

Denuding mountain slopes to create firebreaks is obviously out of the question, which means the sites where protected communities can be built are limited.

Actually, after seeing pictures of the kinds of neighborhoods that burned last year and this I'm not sure any kind of firebreak would help. More fire resistant housing is a good place to start but won't do anything for existing stock and building in CA is already prohibitively expensive.

I predict some building code changes, no new money for thinning and brush clearing, more insurance cancellations, higher electric rates, more big fires, more homeless people.

[SumJongGuy]

The likely death toll is beyond horrific. Even if people were awake and knew the danger was coming the roads didn't facilitate evacuation possibilities for many. This is a disaster on the level of the 9th Ward after Katrina when the levies broke, maybe worse.

Tough to decide what to do in the aftermath.. like the 9th, property is way more affordable there... due to the risks no doubt so people will return unless given other affordable alternatives. And it will happen again and again. Makes my super depressed to look at this as reality.

[Meadow Skipper]

Denuding mountain slopes to create firebreaks is obviously out of the question, which means the sites where protected communities can be built are limited.

Firebreaks, at least the kind I worked on in SoCal in the 70s, aren’t designed or intended to passively stop fires but rather to provide strategic locations for burning out or backfiring. Which requires skilled crews to get in place and fairly favorable conditions. You’re correct that they won’t stop a rolling fire.

I predict some building code changes, no new money for thinning and brush clearing, more insurance cancellations, higher electric rates, more big fires, more homeless people.

I think you’re probably right, except it looks like there might be some proactive raking according to some highly placed politicians.

[neufox47]

Got a question from looking at the coverage. You see burned out houses but still trees near them. It seems that the houses are more likely to burn than trees?? Yes some trees are burned not seems like a lot ate not including softwood.

Trees, if watered, are pretty fire resistant. Houses, not so much. Your house, and especially these; which were in low humidity for 7 months, is a kiln dried pile interspersed with petroleum products. Most / many fires start by embers going into attic vents. The trees will / may go out on their own, once the house starts burning, it goes.

[bodywhomper]

^^add fences for fires to burn along, leaf/needle litter getting blown up against structures from winds generated by the fire, people leaving windows open as they flee/evacuate, no resistant roof material, flammable other debris (Eg firewood) leaning against homes or under decks, and leaves/needles in gutters.

[neckdeep]

Ok, Donny, tell us how you really feel about fire awareness and forest management...is there maybe some written record about that?

Oooops....

Who is paying for that tedious Smokey Bear commercial that is on all the time - enough already!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2015

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

[old goat]

Trees, if watered, are pretty fire resistant. Houses, not so much. Your house, and especially these; which were in low humidity for 7 months, is a kiln dried pile interspersed with petroleum products. Most / many fires start by embers going into attic vents. The trees will / may go out on their own, once the house starts burning, it goes.

This ^^^^ Try burning fresh-sawn doug fir in your wood stove or a ponderosa log with intact bark. Although a lot of those standing trees won't survive.

^^add fences for fires to burn along, leaf/needle litter getting blown up against structures from winds generated by the fire, people leaving windows open as they flee/evacuate, no resistant roof material, flammable other debris (Eg firewood) leaning against homes or under decks, and leaves/needles in gutters.

Good reason to have a Class A rated deck.

[muted]

it will be difficult with the emotional stress
but the community of Paradise will rebuild.

I dunno man, they are stuck in a Walmart parking lot with no money, no insurance, nothing, and hundreds of people burnt to death back where they lived. It won't be abandoned completely but I don't see it really becoming anything close to what I'd call 'rebuilt'

[hutash]

All true. We had a wind break of Monterrey pines (well watered) which came through the fire scorched but survived, the house not so much. Our problem was not the brush fire, I was still at the house for that, but the sting of houses up wind that went up first. Being down wind (winds gusts of 70-80mph, sustained in the 50mph range) from a burning house is not a good place to be. Of all those risk factors mention above the only ones we had was a small amount of fire wood near the house, but in a somewhat protected are. We just put on a new fire resistant roof with modern vents, the rain gutter where in place for about two weeks, and haven't even gotten wet yet. No much/wood chips near the house, etc. Hours of 4,000F heat blowing right at the house was a bit too much. Sometimes you can do everything right and still lose. I even racked the yard.