2018 Wildfire Season

[LightRanger]

Another option to look at is where you can get to and survive that is close. WFF call these safety zones. You should be able to stand there and watch the fire go around you.

Word. The exits from our neighborhood and adjacent ones would get congested. Would be better if they reversed the lane on the road out, but still. But there's a huge lake about a third of a mile from my house, with multiple giant parking lots, boat ramps, and even driveable beaches at the time any fire would potentially hit. Need to chat with my spouse about this stuff in case something happened when I'm not home.

[Rip'nStick]

This article does a pretty good job of explains the issues facing civilians and firefighters at the Camp Fire. The weather for one thing was so extreme that the fire overran town in minutes.

As far as warnings, no more than 30% of the residents signed up for the warning system. And warnings are one thing, but the fire spread so fast and, this is critical, the road infrastructure was so inadequate, that there was no chance once the fire started.
https://www.latimes.com/local/califo...118-story.html

Terrible situation, what a horrific tragedy.

Skipper, during wind events, why dont utilities turn of power grid?

[SumJongGuy]

Terrible situation, what a horrific tragedy.

Skipper, during wind events, why dont utilities turn of power grid?

Not everyone has UPS battery back up for their routers. modems, cell phone chargers, etc.. How can they warn people about these looming disasters if the people who need to be warned have no electricity??

[Meathelmet]

Terrible situation, what a horrific tragedy.

Skipper, during wind events, why dont utilities turn of power grid?

Somewhere in the interwebs there is a blog that went through why/where the event started.
PE, winds, wind sensors, valley wind choke points, etc. Cant remember if it was in this thread as well.
Interesting, yet sobering thing to read.

[bodywhomper]

Another option to look at is where you can get to and survive that is close. WFF call these safety zones. You should be able to stand there and watch the fire go around you.


I personally think it is insane that they were evacuting hospitals. Those should be safe zones with big fire buffers, on site power backup and easily defended.

Schools and their play fields come to mind as well.

The Australians get it - there is a certain point in fire progression where evacuting is riskier than staying in a defensible location.

Jesus Christ that LA Times story is crazy. I can't even imagine being in that.

that LA times story sounds like firefighters tried to use a (relative) safety zone with some evacuating people early in the fire at a creek and 8 of the people died, but most survived.

use of schools and playfields? i think it depends. the new yorker article about Victoria's "black saturday" incident mentioned that towns people sheltered in a big football arena. i don't remember the article going into details about the actual facility. i know that the high school in middletown, ca had damage to most structures along the perimeter of their big play field. the field abutted a vegetated (wild) riparian corridor that burned. i don't know if the grass of the field was burned. there as a high school that burned down in the santa rosa fire. i'm not sure if the play fields were affected.

in my particular neighborhood, the summer camps all surround a reservoir that is used for recreation during camp season; there's the river, which is calm and warm in the summer; there's a 2-3 acre meadow along the main road; and there is an abandoned dirt airport. the meadow and airport properties could be maintained differently to improve better shelter in-place survival.

i agree about the hospital, but as mentioned , the new kmart in santa rosa melted. my understanding is that the k mart was surrounded by a parking lot.

the australian policy is "stay and defend," right? that implies early planning by the government, community, and individuals and active defense when decision time comes. I thought that the AUS government (or at least Victoria) were re-examining that policy after the tragedy of "black Saturday" where 173 people were killed.

in the WUI of northern California, something that complicates receiving evacuation notices or other information and the ability to actively defend your home (and life) is that PG&E now has a policy to de-energize circuits if there is a red-flag warning and wind gusts in the circuit approach 30mph. Of course, it currently sounds like Paradise and the surrounding communities could be standing now unharmed if PG&E actually executed this policy two weeks ago during that wind event. They de-energize circuits during the red flag warning prior that one.

I believe PG&E's longer term plan will be to remove all trees (regardless of health) that could fall on their transmission or distribution lines, regardless of ownership of whether the trees. For property owners that will not allow the trees to be removed, PG&E will have the owner accept all liability of the tree falls on PG&E's infrastructure and causes a wildfire.

Where I live, one of the other great great wildfire concerns is the use of fire during the summer by people squatting on the private property in-holdings along the river or in the state park. These small fires are often used for cooking. The 49'er fire was started by one of these people burning his toilet paper after taking a shit. i imagine it's an activity he performed several times a day w/o previous problems.

it's raining now on the Camp Fire. over 3" forecasted by Friday with more rain forecasted next week. Disaster #2 is about to happen up there....

[hutash]

I believe PG&E (and all utilities) already is required to remove all trees that can potentially impact high power lines. I know SCE takes it pretty seriously in my neighborhood. The problem has been lack of proper maintenance by several utilities. Not maintaining trees, not maintaining proper tension in lines so that they can sway in high winds and touch, or get close enough to arch, order transformers which blow, etc.

I feel for them to a certain degree. They need to shut down these lines, plants, equipment when winds get high, but that pisses people off and they catch hell for powering down parts of the grid. Maybe after this people will not complain if power is shut off, but I doubt it. Their ice cream is more important then a whole down and 80+ lives.

[Meadow Skipper]

Skipper, during wind events, why dont utilities turn of power grid?

I don't know anything about that stuff.

[hutash]

Back in the Thomas fire, the wind event lasted many days. I can't imagine the shit storm if SCE shut down power to a large portion of southern California for days, let alone hours. A few more multi-billion dollar lawsuits, and they likely will tell the customers to fuck off and shut down large parts of the grid.

Just so those who don't appreciate these events here in California, we get them every fall to varying degrees, some last a few hours others several days. Winds can be 30-40 mph, with higher gusts, or 50+ sustained with 80+ gusts. These are just any wind either. The relative humidity can be 3-4%, and blow over vegetation that hasn't see rain in 10 months. Not to mention, that vegetation has evolved to burn. It wants to burn every decade or so. Add all this up, and through in some mountains and canyons to channel and funnel these winds and you have life in southern California as we know it.

[Meadow Skipper]

Back in the Thomas fire, the wind event lasted many days. I can't imagine the shit storm if SCE shut down power to a large portion of southern California for days, let alone hours. A few more multi-billion dollar lawsuits, and they likely will tell the customers to fuck off and shut down large parts of the grid.

Just so those who don't appreciate these events here in California, we get them every fall to varying degrees, some last a few hours others several days. Winds can be 30-40 mph, with higher gusts, or 50+ sustained with 80+ gusts. These are just any wind either. The relative humidity can be 3-4%, and blow over vegetation that hasn't see rain in 10 months. Not to mention, that vegetation has evolved to burn. It wants to burn every decade or so. Add all this up, and through in some mountains and canyons to channel and funnel these winds and you have life in southern California as we know it.

Exactly. And that is why we’re going to have to try to learn to live with fire. Not just in SoCal.

[bodywhomper]

The utility policy that I mention is brand new and not fully vetted. Pge have been doing existing condition analyses. Helicopters and ground crews have been cruising many areas daily. There’s been a temporary copter base set up at a large vacant field nearby for a few months. I believe they have to provide their plan to the CPUC in February 2019.

This would only eliminate their “problem.” But of course will provide plenty of other issues that they need to deal with, like what to do with all the lumber and slash.

[bodywhomper]

When pge shut down power in October, it took a few days for them to re-energize after the wind event ended. That was the only implementation of their new policy. About 50k residents, schools, and businesses were without power in Napa, Sonoma, lake, and el dorado counties as a result.

SCE adopted the same policy and practice this fire season, too. During that same red flag warning, SCE sent out notifications to residents in the areas that they might de-energize.

On pg&e website, you can plug in your address to see if you are in a circuit that could loose power because part of the circuit goes through wild lands/wui. In the Bay Area, it includes developed and built out areas.

I posted about this far up thread back in the late spring when pge broke the news of the de-energizing policy.

[ACH]

serious? the only natural disaster here is a rising snow line and smoke from canuck wildfires. if you’re worried about Rainier blowing her top, see ya.

Well, and that whole Cascadia Subduction Zone thing...

[hutash]

It's not like fire is a bad thing, unless of course you lose a house or life, but it is just a reset button. The rains will come, grasses grow to feed the deer who have been eating twigs and can now move about freely. Seeds will germinate in the fertile soil after their seed coats are burnt off. Big and small cats will feed on the fat prey as will owls and Raptors. Wildflowers not seen in years will bloom and shrubs will sprout from roots buried below the singed soil, and it will all start again. I look forward to hikes and see Calocortus, Fucia, Clarckia Mimmulus blooms, and maybe a few I have never seen before.

[splat]

just saw a post from a fire captain who said the Camp Fire moved at a rate of 80 football fields a minute.

[Flyoverland Captive]

just saw a post from a fire captain who said the Camp Fire moved at a rate of 80 football fields a minute.

That's a lot of ground to rake.

[Meadow Skipper]

just saw a post from a fire captain who said the Camp Fire moved at a rate of 80 football fields a minute.

Yep, basically an acre a second.

[bodywhomper]

Article on future evacuation planning in western Nevada County
https://yubanet.com/regional/dr-jo-a...r-and-quicker/

Sent from my SPH-L710 using TGR Forums mobile app

[splat]

https://dms.licdn.com/playback/C4D05...it4uuXkA1DYUqw

[old goat]

Article on future evacuation planning in western Nevada County
https://yubanet.com/regional/dr-jo-a...r-and-quicker/

Sent from my SPH-L710 using TGR Forums mobile app

I seriously doubt that any amount of traffic engineering and evacuation planning will allow a safe, orderly, rapid evacuation in the face of a fire like the Camp fire. Better to create communities or at least nearby fire-hardened sites where people can shelter in place or in the immediate vicinity. For example--people shelter at the local school with firemen with hoses defending the building. All trees and flammable materials cleared for a considerable distance. Carpooling with the flames bearing down? Seriously?

https://dms.licdn.com/playback/C4D05...it4uuXkA1DYUqw

so instead of helicopters and bombers we fly fighters over the fire at supersonic speed.

[skaredshtles]

I seriously doubt that any amount of traffic engineering and evacuation planning will allow a safe, orderly, rapid evacuation in the face of a fire like the Camp fire. Better to create communities or at least nearby fire-hardened sites where people can shelter in place or in the immediate vicinity. For example--people shelter at the local school with firemen with hoses defending the building. All trees and flammable materials cleared for a considerable distance. Carpooling with the flames bearing down? Seriously?

This - it's the only way to attempt to address a fire like the Camp. Underground shelter might even be better - basically a bunker?

[bodywhomper]

Yes. Imo, there needs to be multiple solutions that are implemented. But the status quo needs to be changed.

[hutash]

Code upgrades will make a big difference. They are going to cost a lot, and at some point might need to be required to retrofit houses. Not only are windows required to be double pane, most not must be tempered glass, and we have to have ours built with duel pane tempered glass. I might just make my curtains out of nomex as well.

Our attic is required to be built as conditioned space, just like the house itself, so no regular vents and has to be vented like the rest of the house. No wood siding, all stucco or in our case "Hardy Board". All exposed wood has to be big, and therefore hard to ignite, I believe it has to be 4x6 or larger. Of course all new construction in our area requires indoor sprinklers, (add 40+K to the building cost).

To name just of few of the new code (some not so new) since our house was built in the late 50s.

[splat]

What's new code on attic/soffit vents, hutash? Those things can rage with convective heat out roof vents as heat blast comes through, sucking embers into attics.

[hutash]

I am not sure exactly what the new code is in our area. Just that the architect said there are no attic vents and that the attic is now consider conditioned space. I suspect that means fresh air will be drawn I. from under the house and into the main house and attic. I am curious exactly how this works and will be getting g more i do as the project progresses. Unfortunately our architect had so.e serious health set backs at the end of the design phase, so we havent been able to met with her lately.

[old goat]

Code upgrades will make a big difference. They are going to cost a lot, and at some point might need to be required to retrofit houses. Not only are windows required to be double pane, most not must be tempered glass, and we have to have ours built with duel pane tempered glass. I might just make my curtains out of nomex as well.

Our attic is required to be built as conditioned space, just like the house itself, so no regular vents and has to be vented like the rest of the house. No wood siding, all stucco or in our case "Hardy Board". All exposed wood has to be big, and therefore hard to ignite, I believe it has to be 4x6 or larger. Of course all new construction in our area requires indoor sprinklers, (add 40+K to the building cost).

To name just of few of the new code (some not so new) since our house was built in the late 50s.

None of that has reached truckee yet. Still building with wood siding, wood decks, vented attics. New construction does require sprinklers but those aren't going to do anything about a wildfire, obviously.