Snow in the PNW 17-18: Dropping!

[Greydon Clark]

Mt. Catherine isn’t Yodlin South, it is farily steep. Also, some of the approach is overgrown, so you need some snow.

Speaking of overgrown, can someone drop some napalm on Kendal Stump?

[thebrucemac]

Anybody here heard anything credible recently as to how long this hp ridge off the coast is expected to last?

[PNWbrit]

Anybody here heard anything credible recently as to how long this hp ridge off the coast is expected to last?

Latest from NWS

.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Differences have developed
between the GFS and ECWMF regarding the strength of the ridge next
week. The new GFS now more closely mirrors the ECMWF in tracking
a weak upper low just off the coast around late Monday. This could
induce some onshore flow or it may not have any surface
reflection in the form of a front or stronger flow to break up
inversions. Stuck with the inherited forecast and kept dry weather
in the forecast for the next 7 day. There are some hints by
models that a gradual weakening of the ridge could allow for a
pattern change beyond day 7, beyond the forecast period.

[GeezerSteve]

i.e., plan on no new snow and prolonged HP for at least a week, and don't expect a reliable update re when it might end until Tuesday at the earliest. In other words, at this time Godzilla HP remains intact with no end in sight per forecast with any meaningful degree of confidence.

This happens nearly every year, although usually in Jan or Feb. When the drought breaks, it often breaks suddenly with a few days advance notice, e.g., BBI17 Friday night.

[PNWbrit]

i.e., plan on no new snow and prolonged HP for at least a week, and don't expect a reliable update re when it might end until Tuesday at the earliest. In other words, at this time Godzilla HP remains intact with no end in sight per forecast with any meaningful degree of confidence.

This happens nearly every year, although usually in Jan or Feb. When the drought breaks, it often breaks suddenly with a few days advance notice, e.g., BBI17 Friday night.

Also it is widely predicted that these ridging events will become more common and persistent in the future. Actually I understand that some local ski businesses most trusted sources are predicting exactly that for for this winter.

[Zeedashbo]

Yeah, sick shot. Cept I think skier is Jeff Rich

In wickstads defense, Jeff rich is mostly girl. Also the skier is Josh Hummel, but I still stand by the Jeff rich comments.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app

[Ale_capone]

Heh.. Jeff is in the video I posted.. front flip fail!

[thebrucemac]

Latest from NWS

i.e., plan on no new snow and prolonged HP for at least a week, and don't expect a reliable update re when it might end until Tuesday at the earliest. In other words, at this time Godzilla HP remains intact with no end in sight per forecast with any meaningful degree of confidence.

This happens nearly every year, although usually in Jan or Feb. When the drought breaks, it often breaks suddenly with a few days advance notice, e.g., BBI17 Friday night.

Thanks fellas. At least there's something to slide on and it's not raining. Just anxious for some big storms and hoping last half of December delivers.

[The AD]

My prediction for next precipitation is Saturday, December 16th.

Air quality is going to turn to shit in the lowlands. I'm sort of amazed it has held up this long.

[pipedream]

Air quality is going to turn to shit in the lowlands. I'm sort of amazed it has held up this long.

You'd be less surprised if you were outside in it every day. There's been a cold north breeze all week...

[NW_SKIER]

You'd be less surprised if you were outside in it every day. There's been a cold north breeze all week...

You say that like you work outside. Don't you sit behind a computer?

[pipedream]

Yeah, but I've been biking to work all week and around town (if you are traffic and traffic sucks, well...). Every morning's been riding into a cold headwind. My water bottle has yet to freeze during the day while locked-up outside the office, but I rode the long way home last night and the mouthpiece froze right before I ate shit on a patch of black ice lurking in the shadows of the trail detour in View Ridge.

[ACH]

right before I ate shit on a patch of black ice lurking in the shadows of the trail detour in View Ridge.

Ouch!

[pipedream]

... fortunately I was pretty well padded in layers and wearing gloves. Nothing more than a scrape on the leg from a pedal and a good bruise

[abraham]

Do you bike with a blue (POC?) helmet? I think I saw you a while ago on the 520 bike trail as I was driving up the hill

[pipedream]

It's a mostly blue but also a little bit green Giro helmet. You've probably seen me in & around Montlake a few times, abraham. I can't wait to ride past the abomination that is 520 WB evening traffic when 520 opens to bikes in ~2 weeks.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

i.e., plan on no new snow and prolonged HP for at least a week, and don't expect a reliable update re when it might end until Tuesday at the earliest. In other words, at this time Godzilla HP remains intact with no end in sight per forecast with any meaningful degree of confidence.

This happens nearly every year, although usually in Jan or Feb. When the drought breaks, it often breaks suddenly with a few days advance notice, e.g., BBI17 Friday night.

It seems the norm is that after some early season snow there is a ridge of high pressure from sometime after Thanksgiving for a week or two and then sometime before Xmas there will be some good cold snow that gradually transitions to a warm pineapple express until New Year, sometimes ending with a good cold front and nice snow. Then there will be 4-6 weeks plus of rex block high pressure gradually transitioning to a more active weather pattern around mid February bringing copious moisture through March with a return of SW-W flow and destabilization due to increase sun. Sound right?

[steveski]

It seems the norm is that after some early season snow there is a ridge of high pressure from sometime after Thanksgiving for a week or two and then sometime before Xmas there will be some good cold snow that gradually transitions to a warm pineapple express until New Year, sometimes ending with a good cold front and nice snow. Then there will be 4-6 weeks plus of rex block high pressure gradually transitioning to a more active weather pattern around mid February bringing copious moisture through March with a return of SW-W flow and destabilization due to increase sun. Sound right?

Unfortunately sounds pretty normal. Last year bucked the trend and hoping this year will also dispell more cold moisture than high pressure.

[snoqpass]

The state climatologist at NSAW said la nina will happen after December

[TAFKALVS]

It seems the norm is that after some early season snow there is a ridge of high pressure from sometime after Thanksgiving for a week or two and then sometime before Xmas there will be some good cold snow that gradually transitions to a warm pineapple express until New Year, sometimes ending with a good cold front and nice snow. Then there will be 4-6 weeks plus of rex block high pressure gradually transitioning to a more active weather pattern around mid February bringing copious moisture through March with a return of SW-W flow and destabilization due to increase sun. Sound right?

Yep. La Nina seems to mean cold and clear during the January ridge. El Nino = warm and slightly soggy. I remember one El Nino at Stevens where I worked in light rain for 6 consecutive weekends.

The "good years" seem to be the ones where the ridge only happens briefly, but I think that has to be a strong La Nina.

[pipedream]

Well, if "November is the new December" than it stands to reason that December is the new January. We almost always dry-out after the holidays with some ridging (typically starting on New Year's Day... because fuck yo hangover) and that lasts for a few weeks. So I guess if you believe ski area marketing, you should move along as there's nothing usual to see here

[PNWbrit]

Afternoon update.

.LONG TERM...Dry weather will continue through at least Thursday
as the ridge begins to weaken. By Friday, showers return as the
flow aloft turns more zonal. Showers will continue into the
weekend with moist west to northwest flow over the area.
Temperatures are trending close to normal over this period.

[bfree]

Moist west to northwest flow. My favorite words.

[steveski]

The state climatologist at NSAW said la nina will happen after December

But in his eloquent: 'I really have no idea what will actually occur', way.

After hearing him year after year it makes me chuckle every time.

[pipedream]

As someone who's on vacation until Jan after next week, this is exactly the kind of 10-day forecast model result I want to see:
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/98068:4:US