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Thread: Snow in the PNW 17-18: Dropping!
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12-08-2017, 12:42 PM #351
Mt. Catherine isn’t Yodlin South, it is farily steep. Also, some of the approach is overgrown, so you need some snow.
Speaking of overgrown, can someone drop some napalm on Kendal Stump?The trumpet scatters its awful sound Over the graves of all lands Summoning all before the throne
Death and mankind shall be stunned When Nature arises To give account before the Judge
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12-08-2017, 01:03 PM #352
Anybody here heard anything credible recently as to how long this hp ridge off the coast is expected to last?
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12-08-2017, 01:18 PM #353
Latest from NWS
.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Differences have developed
between the GFS and ECWMF regarding the strength of the ridge next
week. The new GFS now more closely mirrors the ECMWF in tracking
a weak upper low just off the coast around late Monday. This could
induce some onshore flow or it may not have any surface
reflection in the form of a front or stronger flow to break up
inversions. Stuck with the inherited forecast and kept dry weather
in the forecast for the next 7 day. There are some hints by
models that a gradual weakening of the ridge could allow for a
pattern change beyond day 7, beyond the forecast period.
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12-08-2017, 01:26 PM #354
i.e., plan on no new snow and prolonged HP for at least a week, and don't expect a reliable update re when it might end until Tuesday at the earliest. In other words, at this time Godzilla HP remains intact with no end in sight per forecast with any meaningful degree of confidence.
This happens nearly every year, although usually in Jan or Feb. When the drought breaks, it often breaks suddenly with a few days advance notice, e.g., BBI17 Friday night.
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12-08-2017, 01:33 PM #355
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12-08-2017, 01:39 PM #356
In wickstads defense, Jeff rich is mostly girl. Also the skier is Josh Hummel, but I still stand by the Jeff rich comments.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile appgod created man. winchester and baseball bats made them equal - evel kenievel
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12-08-2017, 01:48 PM #357Registered User
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Heh.. Jeff is in the video I posted.. front flip fail!
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12-08-2017, 02:02 PM #358
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12-08-2017, 02:13 PM #359
My prediction for next precipitation is Saturday, December 16th.
Air quality is going to turn to shit in the lowlands. I'm sort of amazed it has held up this long.
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12-08-2017, 02:59 PM #360Banned
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12-08-2017, 03:05 PM #361
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12-08-2017, 03:23 PM #362Banned
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Yeah, but I've been biking to work all week and around town (if you are traffic and traffic sucks, well...). Every morning's been riding into a cold headwind. My water bottle has yet to freeze during the day while locked-up outside the office, but I rode the long way home last night and the mouthpiece froze right before I ate shit on a patch of black ice lurking in the shadows of the trail detour in View Ridge.
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12-08-2017, 03:33 PM #363
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12-08-2017, 04:25 PM #364Banned
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... fortunately I was pretty well padded in layers and wearing gloves. Nothing more than a scrape on the leg from a pedal and a good bruise
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12-08-2017, 04:31 PM #365
Do you bike with a blue (POC?) helmet? I think I saw you a while ago on the 520 bike trail as I was driving up the hill
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12-08-2017, 05:09 PM #366Banned
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It's a mostly blue but also a little bit green Giro helmet. You've probably seen me in & around Montlake a few times, abraham. I can't wait to ride past the abomination that is 520 WB evening traffic when 520 opens to bikes in ~2 weeks.
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12-08-2017, 05:20 PM #367
It seems the norm is that after some early season snow there is a ridge of high pressure from sometime after Thanksgiving for a week or two and then sometime before Xmas there will be some good cold snow that gradually transitions to a warm pineapple express until New Year, sometimes ending with a good cold front and nice snow. Then there will be 4-6 weeks plus of rex block high pressure gradually transitioning to a more active weather pattern around mid February bringing copious moisture through March with a return of SW-W flow and destabilization due to increase sun. Sound right?
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12-08-2017, 05:26 PM #368
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12-08-2017, 05:41 PM #369
The state climatologist at NSAW said la nina will happen after December
“I have a responsibility to not be intimidated and bullied by low life losers who abuse what little power is granted to them as ski patrollers.”
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12-08-2017, 05:54 PM #370
Yep. La Nina seems to mean cold and clear during the January ridge. El Nino = warm and slightly soggy. I remember one El Nino at Stevens where I worked in light rain for 6 consecutive weekends.
The "good years" seem to be the ones where the ridge only happens briefly, but I think that has to be a strong La Nina.
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12-08-2017, 05:55 PM #371Banned
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Well, if "November is the new December" than it stands to reason that December is the new January. We almost always dry-out after the holidays with some ridging (typically starting on New Year's Day... because fuck yo hangover) and that lasts for a few weeks. So I guess if you believe ski area marketing, you should move along as there's nothing usual to see here
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12-08-2017, 05:56 PM #372
Afternoon update.
.LONG TERM...Dry weather will continue through at least Thursday
as the ridge begins to weaken. By Friday, showers return as the
flow aloft turns more zonal. Showers will continue into the
weekend with moist west to northwest flow over the area.
Temperatures are trending close to normal over this period.
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12-08-2017, 05:58 PM #373
Moist west to northwest flow. My favorite words.
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12-08-2017, 07:30 PM #374
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12-08-2017, 08:02 PM #375Banned
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As someone who's on vacation until Jan after next week, this is exactly the kind of 10-day forecast model result I want to see:
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/98068:4:US
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