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  1. #1
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    Feb 2008
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    La Niña Welcome Back - 12 Places to find great snow this winter


    I took some time to put together a list of 12 places you will find great snow this winter. NOAA's latest ENCSO report came out on Sep 16, 2017.
    Recent La Niña years include 2016-2017; 2011-2012; 2010-2011; 2007-2008; and 2000-2001
    Some fun images and graphs as well.

    https://mtnweekly.com/sports/snowboa...hat-is-la-nina

  2. #2
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    Feb 2008
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    it's a happening - NOAA Forecast "U.S. Winter Outlook: NOAA forecasters predict cooler, wetter North and warmer, drier South"

    http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us...er-drier-south

  3. #3
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    Feb 2008
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    Early winter outlook is 'cold and snowy'
    "Mountain Weather / By Jim Woodmencey Oct 25, 2017

    Jim Woodmencey is the chief meteorologist at MountainWeather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for more than 20 years.

    First things first: Don’t quote me on any of this.

    I’m going to share the latest outlooks for the coming winter, but it’s important to keep in mind that these are prognostications that extend well into the future. They are opinions from different sources, so please take them with that proverbial grain of salt.

    Second, I am merely the messenger. These are not my forecasts. You may interpret the information however you see fit. I’ve noticed people often pick the outlook they like best and run with that, spreading it as if it were gospel.


    Reliable predictions?

    A friend recently forwarded me an email advertisement from a heli-skiing business in Canada to see if I agreed with the message.

    “NOAA La Nina Forecast: La Nina 2018 Stronger than 2017!” the ad announced.

    It went on to say that because last winter was a weak La Nina and the powder was epic, this year’s stronger La Nina will make 2018 even more epic.

    Whoa, slow down a minute. Let’s analyze what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration actually reported and review last winter’s weather.

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, is the official term for describing which phase the Equatorial Pacific is in, temperature-wise. El Nino, the warmer phase, generally brings warmer and drier conditions across the northern Rockies during winter. La Nina, the cooler phase, typically brings cooler and wetter conditions over the northern Rockies.

    We began last winter in a neutral phase, or “No Nino.” That was followed by a weak La Nina for a couple of months, and then it went back to neutral in February.

    As if you could forget, Jackson Hole had an epic winter.

    The previous winter, 2015-16, was dubbed the “Super El Nino” winter, and Jackson Hole ended at or just above average snowfall. California and the Sierra Nevada mountains, which usually do well with snowfall during an El Nino, were in a drought that El Nino.

    The Sierras are usually warmer and drier during a La Nina, and they broke some all-time snowfall records last winter.

    Both of the past two winters fell outside what you would usually expect with these phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, making the ENSO a less reliable predictor of big snowfall.

    Here is the official word from NOAA on the current state of the ENSO:

    “The atmosphere over the tropical Pacific was La Nina-like in September, but the required cooling of the ocean surface was interrupted in the second half of the month. However, the deeper waters in the east cooled further, and forecasters say the odds of at least a weak La Nina by late fall or winter are 55 to 65 percent.”

    To be clear, I will repeat that last part: The odds of a weak La Nina are 55 to 65 percent. That’s a better-than-a-coin-flip chance that we might see at least a weak La Nina this winter. Maybe we’ll even see a somewhat stronger, yet still weak, La Nina than we did last year. I guess to one Canadian ad writer’s interpretation that means definitely more powder.

    Little better than 50-50


    Let’s see what NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has to say. I prefer to use its “experimental” and “unofficial” two-class outlooks.

    Here is how you interpret the maps above, as explained on the Climate Prediction Center’s website: “The contours on the map show the total probability (in percent) of two categories, above, indicated by the letter A, and below, indicated by the letter B. At any point on the map the sum of the probabilities of these two categories is 100 percent.

    “For any particular location and season these two categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981 to 2010. The coldest or driest half (15 years) define the B category, the warmest or wettest half (15 years) defines the A category.

    “When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above A, is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 50 percent to that category. This means that the chance of the opposite category is the remaining part of the total (100 percent).

    “In regions where the forecasters have no indications favoring either A or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 50 percent each, and the region is labeled ‘EC,’ which stands for equal chances.”

    Say what?

    Simply put: What it looks like to me is that we have a little better than a 50-50 chance of being warmer than normal for December, January and February over western Wyoming. And a little better than a 60 percent probability of being wetter than normal. During the winter that could translate to snowier than normal.

    What the Old Farmer’s Almanac says

    Last, but certainly not least, the 2018 edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac shows all of the northern and central Rockies solidly painted on its winter outlook map under “Cold and Snowy.”

    There. Done. Let’s run with that forecast for this winter."

    Say it ain't so. Exciting to see the more established weather guys talking a big winter too. Get stoked

    http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/opinio...61eb72bba.html

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    A LSD Steakhouse somewhere in the Wasatch
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    Click baits u r anal cakes
    Spam bump
    "When the child was a child it waited patiently for the first snow and it still does"- Van "The Man" Morrison
    "I find I have already had my reward, in the doing of the thing" - Buzz Holmstrom
    "THIS IS WHAT WE DO"-AML -
    ski on in eternal peace

  5. #5
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    Eburg
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    will
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  6. #6
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    Apr 2006
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    Spokane/Schweitzer
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    I noted that you have Schweitzer in your listing, which is probably a good as La Nina years are typically off the charts. One point, though, is that you stated that the open gate policy provides access to 200 acres of back country.... A whopping 200 acres? Wow...

    Actually, you can access virtually limitless acreage out of the gates. You might want to restate that.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    The High 12 Hill
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldMember View Post
    I noted that you have Schweitzer in your listing, which is probably a good as La Nina years are typically off the charts. One point, though, is that you stated that the open gate policy provides access to 200 acres of back country.... A whopping 200 acres? Wow...

    Actually, you can access virtually limitless acreage out of the gates. You might want to restate that.
    Better yet. Stop clicking that shitbag's links.

  8. #8
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    Do not click Spammy McSpamface's link above. It might give you herpes.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Tons of snow in the Tetons


    this winter will be one for the record books.

    Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center: http://www.jhavalanche.org/viewOther?area=tog

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    La Nina moves in for the winter

    November 9, 2017 According to NOAA - This is a what a typical winter La Nina pattern looks like as it affects the United States.
    A La Nina climate pattern has arrived and is likely to persist through the winter, according to an advisory issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today. Scientists say there is a greater than 50-percent chance La Nina will also be in place February through April 2018.

    This is the second winter in a row with a La Nina, and like last year, forecasters expect this one to be weak. Last year, this weather phenomenon extended from July 2016 to January 2017 before a return to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

    La Nina: What it is, and what can we expect
    La Nina (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator, the opposite of El Nino (“little boy”).

    Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above-average precipitation and colder-than-average temperatures along the northern tier of the U.S. and below-normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South. NOAA’s 2017 Winter Outlook anticipated that a weak La Nina was likely to develop. Therefore, significant changes are not expected when the Winter Outlook is updated on November 16.

    http://www.noaa.gov/news/la-nina-moves-in-for-winter

    now pay attention to the resorts listed in the article at the top of this thread. No excuses to not me balls / nipple deep in powder all winter long

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    According to the National Weather Service on September 17, 2017 there was increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. As of November 16, 2017 that has now be changed to a (~65%-75% chance) of a La Niña winter.


    Grand Targhee Opening Day

    It is currently warm, which is a good thing. Winter will return like a LION..

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