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Thread: El Nino ?

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    So maybe good news for Mammoth and Tahoe this season?

    There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018
    (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.
    Attachment 247545
    Pray to Ullr we dont have a Modoki El Nino


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  2. #27
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    Aug 2007
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    The water is super warm in San Diego, so I hope it is just a standard El Nino pattern.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlpineKevin View Post
    Dry drought years still mean 400" for PNW and UT. So it is really everyone else who has to do the weather worrying every year.
    That is not true. A bad year in the PNW means its too warm to keep the resorts open and you get more rain than snow.

    Utah has a 400 inch guarantee? Don't make me laugh. Utah has terrible years all the time, Kev.

    FYI, you doof, Alta has been below 400 inches five out of the last ten years. Five of the last seven years have been below 400 inches with two abysmal sub-300 years. Utah is the schizo of snowfall. Incredible snow one year, mediocrity the next.
    Last edited by neckdeep; 10-10-2018 at 10:37 AM.

  4. #29
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    An average year would be ok in Missoula, I guess. The problem runs into when we have above average temps. Missoula is not very high. That can mean icy in town, like usual when it defrosts during the day and freezing at nice, but it can also mean that + rain at our local ski hills.
    No longer stuck.

    Quote Originally Posted by stuckathuntermtn View Post
    Just an uneducated guess.

  5. #30
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
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    22
    My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

    https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot...emisphere.html

    An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.
    "So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."

  6. #31
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    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...y/ensodisc.pdf


    ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

    Synopsis:El Niñois favored to form in the next couple of months andcontinue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75%chance).

    ENSO-neutral continued during September, but withincreasingly more widespread regions of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across theequatorial PacificOcean (Fig. 1). Over the last month, all four Niño index values increased, with the latest weekly values in each region near +0.7C(Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also increased during the last month(Fig. 3), due to the expansion and strengtheningofabove-average temperaturesat depthacrossthe equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4).Convection was increasingly suppressed over Indonesia and around theDate Line (Fig. 5). Low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the western and east-central Pacific,with some of the strongest anomalies occurring over the eastern Pacific duringthe past week. Upper-level wind anomalieswere easterly over the east-central Pacific. Overall, the oceanic and atmosphericconditionsreflected ENSO-neutral, but withrecent trends indicative of a developing El Niño. The majority of models in theIRI/CPC plume predict El Niñoto formduring the fall and continuethrough the winter(Fig. 6). The official forecastfavorsthe formation of a weak El Niño, consistent withthe recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance;click CPC/IRI consensus forecastfor the chance of each outcome for each 3-monthperiod). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forumof CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8November2018. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

    Climate Prediction CenterNational Centers for Environmental PredictionNOAA/National Weather ServiceCollege Park, MD 20740
    Quote Originally Posted by The SnowShow View Post
    Keystone is the new Snowbird

  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by neckdeep View Post
    That is not true. A bad year in the PNW means its too warm to keep the resorts open and you get more rain than snow.

    Utah has a 400 inch guarantee? Don't make me laugh. Utah has terrible years all the time, Kev.

    FYI, you doof, Alta has been below 400 inches five out of the last ten years. Five of the last seven years have been below 400 inches with two abysmal sub-300 years. Utah is the schizo of snowfall. Incredible snow one year, mediocrity the next.
    Mt. Baker has had only one season in its history below 400". Other than that, yeah pretty much.
    Living vicariously through myself.

  8. #33
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    Name:  noaa-winter-outlook-precipitationjpg-50bd7b5a80bc9598.jpg
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    Name:  NOAA Winter outlook temperature.jpg
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  9. #34
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    23

    Finally precipitating

    El Nino or? Not sure what that means anymore. I'm just glad it finally started raining in the PNW!

  10. #35
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    May 2009
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    pdx
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    Those are grim maps

    GRIM MAPS!

    GRIM MAPS, I SAY!

  11. #36
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    Dec 2010
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    CO
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    Winter 2018: Taos gets wet

  12. #37
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    Sep 2014
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    40°39'32.94"N 111°35'45.68"W
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    Quote Originally Posted by homebrewd View Post
    Winter 2018: Taos gets wet
    After last year, Taos deserves to get wet

  13. #38
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Posts
    54
    I was worried about this before but things seem off to a good start

  14. #39
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    22
    Quote Originally Posted by Jellybeans1000 View Post
    My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

    https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot...emisphere.html

    An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.
    "So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."
    And my final one is now available:https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/11/north-american-winter-outlook-2018-19.html


    Extract:

    • I forecast California to have an above average snowfall season.
    • I forecast Colorado/Utah/NM/AZ to have an average, maybe even slightly above average snowfall season
    • I forecast the PNW and BC to have a below average snowfall season.
    • I forecast the Eastern US (New England and Mid Atlantic) to have a moderately-strongly above average snowfall season, particularly in December and February



  15. #40
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    9
    Quote Originally Posted by Jellybeans1000 View Post
    And my final one is now available:https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/11/north-american-winter-outlook-2018-19.html


    Extract:

    • I forecast California to have an above average snowfall season.
    • I forecast Colorado/Utah/NM/AZ to have an average, maybe even slightly above average snowfall season
    • I forecast the PNW and BC to have a below average snowfall season.
    • I forecast the Eastern US (New England and Mid Atlantic) to have a moderately-strongly above average snowfall season, particularly in December and February


    I hate wishing that people are wrong when they've done the hard work, but I hope you're wrong about the PNW/BC. If you're right.... Thank God my home mountain is Baker.

  16. #41
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
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    152
    Quote Originally Posted by Betelgeuse View Post
    Pray to Ullr we dont have a Modoki El Nino


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Unanswered. Modoki here we come...

    https://weather.com/forecast/nationa...eather-company

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