If I buy a brand new gas car today, will I be able to sell it in 10 years?

[TyWebb]

Discuss

[digitaldeath]

will it still work in 10 years?

[Danno]

will there still be "gas stations"?

[AK47bp]

If Amazon allows it to be sold.

[skaredshtles]

You'll be able to sell it.

You won't get shit for it, but it'll sell.

[TAFKALVS]

I wouldn't buy a new car.

[El Chupacabra]

Magic 8 ball says "non!"

http://jalopnik.com/france-plans-to-...icl-1796677036

[DBdude]

yeah, i think you will

we will see how quickly infrastructure for electric and hydrogen cars is created and how good battery technology gets

with the trumpster running things can only extend the life of all gas auto. heaven help us if he get's a second term (pretty unlikely, that he got elected at all is quite the mind fuck)

[TAFKALVS]

Electric cars are a great idea if you live in a city and don't drive anywhere far.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> and how good battery technology gets

This is absolutely the crux of ALL of this. Fortunately, there are extremely bright minds working feverishly all over the world to crack this nut.

Because current battery technology is woefully inadequate and antiquated.

[DBdude]

having to plug your car in, another thing I can forget and that will make me late

[Sirshredalot]

Electric cars are a great idea if you live in a city and don't drive anywhere far.

Or if you can use a lot of torque. Or if you care about total cost per mile driven and plan to drive many miles.

[plugboots]

Electric cars are a great idea if you live in a city and don't drive anywhere far.

I know. We keep looking at this, and it never works out. We went down this path with run flat tires and the manufacturers not supplying spares. 50 miles gets you shit.

[neufox47]

I think so. Can't imagine that gas cars are extinct in 10 years.

[Bromontana]

Or if you can use a lot of torque. Or if you care about total cost per mile driven and plan to drive many miles.

Say I wanna do 1,000 miles this weekend. Vegas & back plus a trip up to Charleston. What are the logistics for electric in current options?

I hear you long term but can't see the utility for long distance remote travel at the moment. Maybe I'm wrong though.

[frorider]

On a related note, sorta---there's an increasingly common advice lately to make sure any new car you get has driver assists like adaptive cruise control...i.e. The models without that e-shit might save you, say, $800 today but will have much worse resale value 7-10 yrs from now than equipped version. Our autonomous and semi-Autonomous future.

[jackattack]

leasing is the only safe option

[XXX-er]

it all boils down to money, it will eventualy cost more to burn gas but I can't see fossil fule going away cuz there are places you will still need to burn

[SB]

Depends, has DDs mom been in it?

[nickwm21]

Volvo announced this week that they are no longer going to develop any petrol only vehicles...

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[TAFKALVS]

I know. We keep looking at this, and it never works out. We went down this path with run flat tires and the manufacturers not supplying spares. 50 miles gets you shit.

If I lived in a city and only drove in the city an electric car would be great. But 50 miles is 2 trips to work.

And what happens if you drive to a trailhead or something and run out of juice?

[stfu&gbtw]

I'd think it all depends on whether it's a vehicle that could be replaced with an electric substitute... Larger vehicles - real SUVs, trucks, etc - they're not getting an electric alternative any time soon. I'd think that enthusiast vehicles would become more highly sought after for a period of time. Especially durable gas powered cars might also do okay once people get a taste of replacing the battery arrays in aging cars. But your run of the mill econo-shitbox might be hard to move.

However, the two major hurdles that no one's really discussing yet are that the limited popularity of electric cars today only exists because they are so heavily subsidized, and that no one's had to deal with the volume of hazardous material that will be created if we start manufacturing and disposing of electric cars in larger volume. About 95,000,000 new vehicles (consumer and commercial) were manufactured in 2016. Of those, about 750,000 were some sort of HEV - hybrid, plug in electric, etc. That's about 0.7% of the market. At this level of production, the real costs of manufacture and disposal are buried in government subsidies for the industry and consumers. In the US alone, the government has put ~$6B into subsidizing electric vehicles, either through tax credits for buyers, or funding for grants and incentives for manufacturers... But we know the market is intolerant of higher prices - when the state of Georgia turned off their $5K tax credit for HEVs, sales fell by 90%. We also have no idea what the real costs will be in dealing with the environmental disaster we'll create by manufacturing batteries to power even 30% of new vehicles. Hazmat disposal is not something that becomes more economical as volume increases.

The fact is that HEVs are actually more expensive to manufacture, purchase, maintain, repair, and dispose of than their gas powered counterparts. On average, hybrids achieve only slightly better fuel economy than their gas equivalents, and hardly any better efficiency than similar diesel vehicles, and while they produce less CO2 during operation, producing the electricity to charge them overnight produces and enormous amount of CO2. The Atlantic published an article about a study done in 2015 to map the real pollution created by gas vs. electric vehicles. Here's the map:



Hopefully, one day, we'll produce more clean energy in the US, and charging your HEV will become less harmful to the environment than driving a gasoline car. But even then, when we stop funding the industry with tax payer dollars and costs are shouldered entirely by the market, demand is going to fall off a cliff. And the cars that are on the road aren't quite old enough to require new batteries en mass... Tesla is already struggling with a shortage of batteries. No idea what the plans are to ramp up battery production to account for existing demand for new vehicles, replacement demand for existing vehicles, and any increase in future demand. Without a new source of supply, and once the real costs of manufacture and disposal (in places that don't employ 7 year olds, and dump toxic waste into nearby rivers) are baked in, the cost of the batteries alone is going to skyrocket. If you doubt the economics, consider the real costs of shipping chinese-made batteries around the globe as we do today... Even with the existing levels of subsidy, that's still the cheaper alternative to making them locally.

"Investing" in HEVs is a terrible idea compared to other things we could do with the money... For every economy we might find, there are already known fixed costs that outpace them. If we want to invest in something to make small scale electric more feasible, every dollar should go into collection and storage technology R&D. When we find a solution, then we'll be ready to invest in bringing its applications to market.

[DBdude]

^ I agree

i hope the batteries can be recycled

[Timberridge]

As long as industry, long haul truckers, ships and airplanes need hc fuels you'll have hc fuels.

[bagtagley]

I think it'll depend heavily on gas prices in 10 years.