Results 51 to 57 of 57
-
03-25-2017, 02:51 AM #51
Excellent thread.
I agree that it's not possible to claim that climate change as such is the driver of the changes we have seen the last few years, but I'd say that in Norway the last few years have been very different from when I started skiing and freeskiing/touring as such became normal in Norway. The last 5-ish years have had more extreme weather; as in longer dry spells, bigger storms when they come, colder and warmer periods during the winter etc. This leads to more complex layering in the snow, more scarcity and bigger local variations. When this is added to the already somewhat funky geography of Norway, where you can go from a costal climate to a more "continental" climate within an hour, I'm surprised we haven't seen the same tendency as in the Alps regarding avy deaths.
Anyhow, the norwegian forecasting site varsom.no has tried to put more information in the headline section this year. http://www.varsom.no/snoskredvarslin...7-03-25http://
On the left it lists the regions with links to the region forecasts. It then lists the avalanche problems in the regions before the actual danger ratings (In the Indre Sogn region in actually lists a deep persistent weak layer). On some of the ratings you can see an exclamation mark suggestion that there is something specific to be aware of in addition to the normal hazards for a given rating.
-
03-27-2017, 11:14 AM #52
I like the concepts above ^^ that sf describes.
Since the munter method is based on statistics, wouldn't statistics need to drive a change to the risk reduction methodology? are the statistics being updated with a goal of updating the method? (apologies if this has already been discussed upthread) Is there quality data from 2 more decades of touring and avi incidents in the sample region that could allow for a meaningful update? Some of the data may be skewed because of the use of the munter method during that timeframe, but I would think that could be accounted for in the number crunching.
the very recent incident in japan with those kids (RIP ) made me wonder if there's a similar risk reduction tool in japan; however, i think it would have been mentioned here if that was the case.
-
03-27-2017, 01:28 PM #53Registered User
- Join Date
- Mar 2017
- Posts
- 12
dunno
-
03-27-2017, 06:34 PM #54
-
04-01-2017, 04:57 PM #55Galibier Designcrafting technology in service of music
-
04-03-2017, 09:12 AM #56Registered User
- Join Date
- Oct 2003
- Posts
- 1,037
I mean the stats are not based on "selecting a slope at random", but they are applied that way. I was defining historical rate as incidents/# of tests, and we don't know the # of tests. For example it's likely there are more tests on northern exposures than southern exposures.
-
04-18-2017, 01:40 AM #57
Big slide in the Hautes-Alpes in France on Sunday, one ski tourer seriously injured, again due to the PWL that has been there since the start of the winter. The frontier area has been the scene of a number of big slides this season, such as this one in the Ecrins: http://www.data-avalanche.org/listAv.../1492276335389 - a "stable" snowpack that went on a PWL that was possibly reactivated with the spring weather - the area is in the shadow during the winter months.
Bookmarks