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  1. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Highyak
    Posts
    592
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat

  2. #52
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    inpdx
    Posts
    20,197
    Quote Originally Posted by pipedream View Post
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat

    or at Heather Canyon at Mt Hood Meadows

  3. #53
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    486
    Quote Originally Posted by pipedream View Post
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat
    WRF says it will, but it will be cooling off during the day

  4. #54
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,037
    Click image for larger version. 

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    FX came out 2 degrees below measured for Heather Meadows during the warm-up. Over the last week the Standard Deviation between FX and actual was 1.89 F for that location, meaning ~95% of forecasts were within 3.8 F. In other words the FX is almost always within 1000' of the actual freezing level at any given hour. At that high temporal resolution I'm happy with those results.

    More importantly, the wind forecast was spot on for Sunday based on field observations:
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

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  5. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Highyak
    Posts
    592
    Regardless, by the time we got to Heather Meadows on Sat. morning the rain had turned back into, albeit heavy & wet, snow. That was dramatically different from what NOAA/NWS was calling for up to first forecast update on Sat.

    The wind forecast was spot-on, high winds in the wee hours of the morning diminishing quickly as the front passed thru with a rapidly lowering freezing level following. Still, it was enough action to initiate a substantial wet slab cycle in at-and-above treeline terrain and keep the Pan Dome side of the resort shuttered for the day.

  6. #56
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    inpdx
    Posts
    20,197
    bump to see if this site has died off


    cmor, how's your back recovery been?

  7. #57
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    vernon
    Posts
    2,977
    Its still working.
    www.skevikskis.com Check em out!

  8. #58
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    inpdx
    Posts
    20,197
    I see station data, but no forecasting
    and, while I saved a link to the page for my local hill, I don't see anything in the base site but crystal

  9. #59
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Powder Mountain
    Posts
    841
    what are the 4 high points on the baker-shuksan profile?

  10. #60
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,037
    It is not dead, although I almost am. My back healed well and I was strong. Unfortunately I took a bad fall a couple months ago and broke my pelvis, back, femur, scapulae, ribs, and skull. I've been fighting back and have made significant improvements to the forecasting project from the nursing home. A lot of it's in the back end, the system produced over 100 terabytes of data last year which took some innovative thinking to handle. On the front end the immediate change you're seeing is it's Crystal only for the Viz page and the new brass tacks page. Crystal is funding all of the work and the output reflects that If you've bookmarked pages you're still getting some scraps, but I'm not sure if it's accurate. These urls will be gone soon. The maps and cross sections are still publicly available, and this innately includes all of the PNW. There has been upgrades to the maps as well, they are now much easier on the eyes.

    I have a recap of the performance of forecasts across all areas from last year, and comparisons to other sources. I am confident that these are the most accurate mountain weather forecasts available. Once I have a minute to put it together in a web friendly format I will share and am open to feedback.

    I would like the system to keep growing, and tried to get a consortium of ski areas and NWAC to fund the work this winter as a public service. This did not materialize for a number of reasons, and me spending a significant time in the ICU this fall did not help the cause, but the feedback from the avalanche community has been positive. Crystal funded all of the work for everyone last year, and are still keeping it going this year. Give them a thanks if you're using it.

  11. #61
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    NCW
    Posts
    4,577
    Shit dude. Take care.

    I’m not sure if you’re looking for volunteers to support the site, but I’m a meteorologist out of work and would be willing to contribute if I can. Pm me if interested.

  12. #62
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Posts
    2,787
    cmor,
    Sounds like you've had a hell of a few years. I just clicked through the site, not sure exactly what is missing or not up-to-date compared to in the past, but it looks pretty damn good to me. I'll definitely let Crystal know my positive thoughts when I get a chance. A crowdfunding push would be perfect for this project. Keep us up do date.
    dt

  13. #63
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    X=Z-BO
    Posts
    3,455
    Damn. Get better dude. Thanks again for this.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app
    god created man. winchester and baseball bats made them equal - evel kenievel

  14. #64
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Cascades
    Posts
    666
    I would totally support a crowdfund, especially to bring back functionality at multiple locations. This is the best site around.
    Take care and heal up cmor, sending good vibes.

  15. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    2,620
    +1 for money is you end up crowdfunding. Super cool website, good luck healing up.

  16. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    In a parallel universe
    Posts
    4,755
    What others have said RE crowd funding - and - get well wishes.

  17. #67
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    NCW
    Posts
    4,577
    cmor - I really enjoy your site. What would it take to get a marker for some of the smaller hills like Mission or White on the maps? It would be very helpful for many of the maps that completey obscure the geographic layer.

  18. #68
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    X=Z-BO
    Posts
    3,455
    Hey mags! We need to get this thing back up and running. It's an amazing forecasting tool. Let's get some crowd funding going so cmor can get this back in action

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app
    god created man. winchester and baseball bats made them equal - evel kenievel

  19. #69
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Before
    Posts
    27,908
    Hear, hear.
    Great detail, granularity, clarity, plus.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
    >>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<

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