Results 51 to 69 of 69
Thread: Winter Science in the PNW
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03-15-2017, 01:59 PM #51Banned
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
- Location
- Highyak
- Posts
- 592
Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat
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03-15-2017, 02:48 PM #52
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03-15-2017, 07:05 PM #53Registered User
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
- Posts
- 486
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03-20-2017, 10:39 AM #54Registered User
- Join Date
- Oct 2003
- Posts
- 1,037
FX came out 2 degrees below measured for Heather Meadows during the warm-up. Over the last week the Standard Deviation between FX and actual was 1.89 F for that location, meaning ~95% of forecasts were within 3.8 F. In other words the FX is almost always within 1000' of the actual freezing level at any given hour. At that high temporal resolution I'm happy with those results.
More importantly, the wind forecast was spot on for Sunday based on field observations:
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03-20-2017, 12:41 PM #55Banned
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
- Location
- Highyak
- Posts
- 592
Regardless, by the time we got to Heather Meadows on Sat. morning the rain had turned back into, albeit heavy & wet, snow. That was dramatically different from what NOAA/NWS was calling for up to first forecast update on Sat.
The wind forecast was spot-on, high winds in the wee hours of the morning diminishing quickly as the front passed thru with a rapidly lowering freezing level following. Still, it was enough action to initiate a substantial wet slab cycle in at-and-above treeline terrain and keep the Pan Dome side of the resort shuttered for the day.
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11-10-2017, 01:02 PM #56
bump to see if this site has died off
cmor, how's your back recovery been?
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11-10-2017, 01:07 PM #57
Its still working.
www.skevikskis.com Check em out!
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11-10-2017, 01:30 PM #58
I see station data, but no forecasting
and, while I saved a link to the page for my local hill, I don't see anything in the base site but crystal
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11-10-2017, 02:16 PM #59
what are the 4 high points on the baker-shuksan profile?
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11-10-2017, 04:09 PM #60Registered User
- Join Date
- Oct 2003
- Posts
- 1,037
It is not dead, although I almost am. My back healed well and I was strong. Unfortunately I took a bad fall a couple months ago and broke my pelvis, back, femur, scapulae, ribs, and skull. I've been fighting back and have made significant improvements to the forecasting project from the nursing home. A lot of it's in the back end, the system produced over 100 terabytes of data last year which took some innovative thinking to handle. On the front end the immediate change you're seeing is it's Crystal only for the Viz page and the new brass tacks page. Crystal is funding all of the work and the output reflects that If you've bookmarked pages you're still getting some scraps, but I'm not sure if it's accurate. These urls will be gone soon. The maps and cross sections are still publicly available, and this innately includes all of the PNW. There has been upgrades to the maps as well, they are now much easier on the eyes.
I have a recap of the performance of forecasts across all areas from last year, and comparisons to other sources. I am confident that these are the most accurate mountain weather forecasts available. Once I have a minute to put it together in a web friendly format I will share and am open to feedback.
I would like the system to keep growing, and tried to get a consortium of ski areas and NWAC to fund the work this winter as a public service. This did not materialize for a number of reasons, and me spending a significant time in the ICU this fall did not help the cause, but the feedback from the avalanche community has been positive. Crystal funded all of the work for everyone last year, and are still keeping it going this year. Give them a thanks if you're using it.
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11-10-2017, 05:20 PM #61
Shit dude. Take care.
I’m not sure if you’re looking for volunteers to support the site, but I’m a meteorologist out of work and would be willing to contribute if I can. Pm me if interested.
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11-13-2017, 08:06 AM #62
cmor,
Sounds like you've had a hell of a few years. I just clicked through the site, not sure exactly what is missing or not up-to-date compared to in the past, but it looks pretty damn good to me. I'll definitely let Crystal know my positive thoughts when I get a chance. A crowdfunding push would be perfect for this project. Keep us up do date.
dt
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11-13-2017, 10:41 AM #63
Damn. Get better dude. Thanks again for this.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile appgod created man. winchester and baseball bats made them equal - evel kenievel
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11-13-2017, 06:49 PM #64
I would totally support a crowdfund, especially to bring back functionality at multiple locations. This is the best site around.
Take care and heal up cmor, sending good vibes.
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11-13-2017, 07:51 PM #65
+1 for money is you end up crowdfunding. Super cool website, good luck healing up.
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11-13-2017, 07:53 PM #66
What others have said RE crowd funding - and - get well wishes.
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01-27-2018, 04:27 PM #67
cmor - I really enjoy your site. What would it take to get a marker for some of the smaller hills like Mission or White on the maps? It would be very helpful for many of the maps that completey obscure the geographic layer.
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12-01-2019, 11:53 AM #68
Hey mags! We need to get this thing back up and running. It's an amazing forecasting tool. Let's get some crowd funding going so cmor can get this back in action
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile appgod created man. winchester and baseball bats made them equal - evel kenievel
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12-01-2019, 11:55 AM #69
Hear, hear.
Great detail, granularity, clarity, plus.Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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