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  1. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    2,653
    Just a teasing jab.

  2. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    WAshington
    Posts
    1,569
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat
    "Pay your nickel and take your chances"
    "they don't groom Alpental, they just move shit around."

  3. #53
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    pdx
    Posts
    7,681
    Quote Originally Posted by pipedream View Post
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat

    or at Heather Canyon at Mt Hood Meadows

  4. #54
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    256
    Quote Originally Posted by pipedream View Post
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat
    WRF says it will, but it will be cooling off during the day

  5. #55
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    989
    Click image for larger version. 

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    FX came out 2 degrees below measured for Heather Meadows during the warm-up. Over the last week the Standard Deviation between FX and actual was 1.89 F for that location, meaning ~95% of forecasts were within 3.8 F. In other words the FX is almost always within 1000' of the actual freezing level at any given hour. At that high temporal resolution I'm happy with those results.

    More importantly, the wind forecast was spot on for Sunday based on field observations:
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

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  6. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    WAshington
    Posts
    1,569
    Regardless, by the time we got to Heather Meadows on Sat. morning the rain had turned back into, albeit heavy & wet, snow. That was dramatically different from what NOAA/NWS was calling for up to first forecast update on Sat.

    The wind forecast was spot-on, high winds in the wee hours of the morning diminishing quickly as the front passed thru with a rapidly lowering freezing level following. Still, it was enough action to initiate a substantial wet slab cycle in at-and-above treeline terrain and keep the Pan Dome side of the resort shuttered for the day.
    "Pay your nickel and take your chances"
    "they don't groom Alpental, they just move shit around."

  7. #57
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    pdx
    Posts
    7,681
    bump to see if this site has died off


    cmor, how's your back recovery been?

  8. #58
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    vernon
    Posts
    1,980
    Its still working.
    www.skevikskis.com Check em out!

  9. #59
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    pdx
    Posts
    7,681
    I see station data, but no forecasting
    and, while I saved a link to the page for my local hill, I don't see anything in the base site but crystal

  10. #60
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Powder Mountain
    Posts
    682
    what are the 4 high points on the baker-shuksan profile?

  11. #61
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    989
    It is not dead, although I almost am. My back healed well and I was strong. Unfortunately I took a bad fall a couple months ago and broke my pelvis, back, femur, scapulae, ribs, and skull. I've been fighting back and have made significant improvements to the forecasting project from the nursing home. A lot of it's in the back end, the system produced over 100 terabytes of data last year which took some innovative thinking to handle. On the front end the immediate change you're seeing is it's Crystal only for the Viz page and the new brass tacks page. Crystal is funding all of the work and the output reflects that If you've bookmarked pages you're still getting some scraps, but I'm not sure if it's accurate. These urls will be gone soon. The maps and cross sections are still publicly available, and this innately includes all of the PNW. There has been upgrades to the maps as well, they are now much easier on the eyes.

    I have a recap of the performance of forecasts across all areas from last year, and comparisons to other sources. I am confident that these are the most accurate mountain weather forecasts available. Once I have a minute to put it together in a web friendly format I will share and am open to feedback.

    I would like the system to keep growing, and tried to get a consortium of ski areas and NWAC to fund the work this winter as a public service. This did not materialize for a number of reasons, and me spending a significant time in the ICU this fall did not help the cause, but the feedback from the avalanche community has been positive. Crystal funded all of the work for everyone last year, and are still keeping it going this year. Give them a thanks if you're using it.

  12. #62
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    NCW
    Posts
    894
    Shit dude. Take care.

    Iím not sure if youíre looking for volunteers to support the site, but Iím a meteorologist out of work and would be willing to contribute if I can. Pm me if interested.

  13. #63
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Posts
    2,806
    cmor,
    Sounds like you've had a hell of a few years. I just clicked through the site, not sure exactly what is missing or not up-to-date compared to in the past, but it looks pretty damn good to me. I'll definitely let Crystal know my positive thoughts when I get a chance. A crowdfunding push would be perfect for this project. Keep us up do date.
    dt

  14. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    north aspect
    Posts
    32,578
    Quote Originally Posted by alto View Post
    cmor,
    A crowdfunding push would be perfect for this project. Keep us up do date.
    dt
    word

    do do keep us up to date and here’s hoping for a full recovery, C.
    bF
    Alpental Indigenous

  15. #65
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    X=Z-BO
    Posts
    3,150
    Damn. Get better dude. Thanks again for this.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app
    god created man. winchester and baseball bats made them equal - evel kenievel

  16. #66
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Cascades
    Posts
    429
    I would totally support a crowdfund, especially to bring back functionality at multiple locations. This is the best site around.
    Take care and heal up cmor, sending good vibes.

  17. #67
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Methow Valley
    Posts
    464
    +1 for money is you end up crowdfunding. Super cool website, good luck healing up.

  18. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Summit North
    Posts
    4,398
    What others have said RE crowd funding - and - get well wishes.
    Alpental Indigenous

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