10 year paper.

[Stu Gotz]

6% by mid term elections. Over/under.

[Benny Profane]

Why?

[Stu Gotz]

Increased spending. Lower taxes. Bond vigilantes no likey.

See Bill Clintons first two years in office.

[Benny Profane]

Times were better.

[Viva]

6% by mid term elections.

What is it currently? Was around 2.0% last I checked.

[DJSapp]

Under. And yes Viva, it's hovering around 2% but trending up since election day.

You're overestimating Trump's ability to get things done by decree. Congress is going to be like a deer in headlights and not know what to do with itself. After his first 10 executive actions of his are suspended pending litigation from the ACLU, he may realize that following the system of processes may be a better way of getting stuff done.

[4matic]

Dollar very strong. TY yield hit 2.3% last night. Housing gonna take a pause.

[TahoeJ]

Under. BTW, the big plan to boost the economy by basically destroying EPA regulations is going to hit major roadblocks on the state level. It's going to be a good couple of years to be a litigator.

[neufox47]

Under. If it goes over we are fucked. Change the interest rate to 7% on your mortgage and see what that does to your monthly payment.

[Stu Gotz]

Dear Stanley Druckenmiller - get your own investment thesis.

Sincerely - Stu

[Edgnar]

Under. BTW, the big plan to boost the economy by basically destroying EPA regulations is going to hit major roadblocks on the state level. It's going to be a good couple of years to be a litigator.

Also ignores market forces on Coal, oil & gas front. More gas = less coal. More gas brings the price per mmBTU down even further, decreasing use of coal further. Also reduces carbon, other air pollutants. Oil might be interesting. OPEC wants to cut production, but US producers are talking about drilling again as prices rise. Which probably means prices stay about the same, or even fall if more US production comes back online. If prices fall, drilling activity will decrease again. Bottom line- Trump doesn't understand energy markets at all.

[4matic]

I suspect we fill the gap on the weekly chart at 2.12% TY

[RootSkier]

.
UNLEADED TO 99 CENTS!

[Bromontana]

Under. BTW, the big plan to boost the economy by basically destroying EPA regulations is going to hit major roadblocks on the state level. It's going to be a good couple of years to be a litigator.

Shit, maintaining the status quo for domestic energy will allow it to push several countries into bankruptcy. Maybe expand market share further in oil/ng. Trump doesn't need to do much to let O&G industry thrive, it's already one of the bright spots post-crisis.

Over under that high for ust 10yr? Jeebus what a trend.

[LightRanger]

Also ignores market forces on Coal, oil & gas front. More gas = less coal. More gas brings the price per mmBTU down even further, decreasing use of coal further. Also reduces carbon, other air pollutants. Oil might be interesting. OPEC wants to cut production, but US producers are talking about drilling again as prices rise. Which probably means prices stay about the same, or even fall if more US production comes back online. If prices fall, drilling activity will decrease again. Bottom line- Trump doesn't understand energy markets at all.

Yep. Such a glaring and obvious hole in his rhetoric this year (among many many such holes). He was simultaneously saying he'd push for more hydrocarbon leasing for horizontal drilling and fracked wells, but also claiming he'd bring back the coal industry--despite its decline predating Obama, having almost nothing to do with increased regulations, and accelerating with cheap shale gas and decreased Chinese demand. Ridiculously stupid to anybody paying attention.

I take the under on Stu's bet, but I'm not a bond expert in the slightest.

[mc089a]

No way it'll go that high. It would kill the real estate market.

[Bromontana]

No way it'll go that high. It would kill the real estate market.

And?

[dunfree]

And?

You kill the job market too. Construction and Health Care, the two productivity improvement free sectors of the economy. Also two big employers of relatively low skill/education/wage labor.

[Bromontana]

Point is, markets cycle. Not disputing the downside of a RE crash, just noting that UST sellers don't care if housing crashes.

People overestimate the ability of central planning to eliminate cycles. The deeper you get into central planning, the more reluctant planners are to let cycles happen, extending the period between cycles but also making the troughs/recessions worse.

[shroom]

healthcare bode well the last go around.

[dunfree]

Point is, markets cycle.

No shit. My point was El Trumperor promised jobs to the left behinds. The left behinds have been getting jobs in healthcare and/or construction, so if he kills that, he's killing his base. Or he's developing them somewhere else (likely impossible). Which leads to a short term rise.

[Bromontana]

This isn't a polyass thread meng.

[DBdude]

us paper

under

the demand for us treasuries will keep it lower than six

[Alaskan Rover]

You kill ther job market too. Construction and Healthra Care, the two productivity improvement free sectors of the economy. Also two big employers of relatively low skill/education/wage labor.

I don't get how you figure health care is low skill, low education and low wage, even on a relative basis. Sure, if you're pushing gurneys around the hallways, I could see all three being low, but the majority of health care workers are anything from moderately skilled/educated/paid (various med technologists) to extremely skilled/educated/paid (neurosurgeon).

The low skill/education/wage sector would be a small portion of the medical/health care field, me thinks.

[4matic]

Most growth since the GR has been result of wealth affect from monetary policy. I have my doubts about a switch to organic growth from fiscal stimulus.

If rates accelerate prior to fed decision I'd like to see 1/2 point before the new year. Especially if this Friday jobs picture is strong.

The weekly chart would be very bullish 10y rates if we gap up on Friday.