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  1. #201
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,976
    I've raised cash this week. Gone from zero to 8%. Also cut margin debt in my taxable account by 80%.

    I'm in forced change the next few months so that is my reason more than change of opinion.

  2. #202
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    BROulder
    Posts
    2,887
    I have been putting a lot of my admittedly small assets into cash

  3. #203
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,779

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  4. #204
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    11,110
    Definitely sell your stock in Invanka's fashion business.

    Edit--Unless she starts selling jock straps and wife beaters.
    Last edited by old goat; 02-06-2017 at 07:14 PM.

  5. #205
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Posts
    5,157
    Anyone know about these guys? Thinking about going in balls deep.

    Name:  Lincoln.jpeg
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  6. #206
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Eburg
    Posts
    12,909

  7. #207
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,779
    Yeah, very interesting. My argument, too, about tariffs and protectionism. All the infrastructure spending in the world can't fix what sorrow that would bring, especially in today's world. GM just reported a very shaky quarter, with China slowing down, and he's going to essentially raise their production costs dramatically with his little brown people hate? Idiot.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  8. #208
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Wasatch
    Posts
    5,864
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Yeah, very interesting. My argument, too, about tariffs and protectionism. All the infrastructure spending in the world can't fix what sorrow that would bring, especially in today's world. GM just reported a very shaky quarter, with China slowing down, and he's going to essentially raise their production costs dramatically with his little brown people hate? Idiot.
    We also aren't going to get real infrastructure spending. If anything, we will get a boondoggle chucking tax subsidies at businesses cozy with the administration and we will get no actual new infrastructure built. It will be rife with corruption.

  9. #209
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    711
    Quote Originally Posted by cloud cult View Post
    Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

    Anyone else in the same boat?

  10. #210
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    12,318
    I am still 80% invested but I don't trust any of the house of cards built through tweets and manipulation. With current interest rates what choices do you really have to accumulate wealth or at least conserve it against our "low" inflation? I plan to retire in 5 years and need what is in my IRA to maintain my amazing standard of living.

  11. #211
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Posts
    5,157
    "number go up"

  12. #212
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    2,341
    S&P was down 4.4% in 2018 and we are only a little over halfway into 2019.

    Seems like a good time to sell stocks. I'm guessing when the crash comes in the next year or two it is going to be a long recovery. Cutting interest rates and taxes might be off the table. Record deficit despite "booming" economy. With "Full employment" and record market seems crazy they are cutting rates again, major inflation & bubbles seem very likely. Although if you look at price of housing, food, fuel inflation already happening?

  13. #213
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,779
    Where else will you put your money? Loan sharking?

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  14. #214
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    2,341
    Yeah, that is the problem. I have been selling FXAIX and buying FIKFX,FBKWX, and stable value (2%). Still have ~50% of portfolio in FSMDX & FSSNX, plus some in FXAIX & RNWGX...

  15. #215
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    711
    Quote Originally Posted by cloud cult View Post
    Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

    Anyone else in the same boat?


    DJIA 28,000!

  16. #216
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,976

  17. #217
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    455
    How'd that work out?

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

  18. #218
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    your vacation
    Posts
    1,785
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I disagree

    temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done

  19. #219
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,976
    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    I disagree

    temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done
    Not sure the statistic includes Home Depot pickups.

  20. #220
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    RF Valley
    Posts
    27
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Maybe 3.5% unemployment rate? 150k new jobs a month means less Temp position?

    Not sure I see labor market weakness. Cute chart though.

  21. #221
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,976
    Quote Originally Posted by mcove View Post
    Maybe 3.5% unemployment rate? 150k new jobs a month means less Temp position?

    Not sure I see labor market weakness. Cute chart though.
    The caution would be if temp hires has gone negative f/t hiring might start slowing and perhaps force reductions.

    December is one if the biggest months for permanent force reduction and temp hiring also peaks this time of year.

    Itís just one data point but with GDP forecasts well below 2% itís reason for caution on labor:

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning's retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.

  22. #222
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Big Sky/Moonlight Basin
    Posts
    9,762
    Quote Originally Posted by Bobby Finstock View Post
    DJIA 28,000!
    And it would be over 30,000 if Obama were still in office.

    Proof = from Inauguration Day until November 15th of year 3:

    Obama = DJIA up 51 percent
    Trump = DJIA up 42 percent

    THANKS OBAMA !


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    "Zee damn fat skis are ruining zee piste !" -Oscar Schevlin

    "Hike up your skirt and grow a dick you fucking crybaby" -what Bunion said to Harry at the top of The Headwaters

  23. #223
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,976

    Trump and your 401k: what to sell and when?

    Stock market can continue higher even if or especially if economy and employment slows. Easy to justify force reductions and cost cutting to maintain earnings

  24. #224
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    2,341
    I'm guessing another 5% bump up between now and June 2020 as long as "consumer confidence" numbers don't drop. Trump has to sign trade deal with Chine prior to June and sounds like China is setting all the terms including signing location. But also think it is almost as likely that the house of cards comes down.

  25. #225
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    6,000
    Lot of guessing.

    Who is selling risk now who is buying. Simple question. Put your nuts on the table.
    Decisions Decisions

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