Trump and your 401k: what to sell and when?

**4matic** · 01-27-2017, 02:31 PM

I've raised cash this week. Gone from zero to 8%. Also cut margin debt in my taxable account by 80%.

I'm in forced change the next few months so that is my reason more than change of opinion.

**WTF is dat** · 01-29-2017, 09:45 PM

I have been putting a lot of my admittedly small assets into cash

**Benny Profane** · 02-04-2017, 08:48 AM

Ask questions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...m-donald-trump

**old goat** · 02-05-2017, 11:43 PM

Definitely sell your stock in Invanka's fashion business.

Edit--Unless she starts selling jock straps and wife beaters.

**m964rsa** · 02-06-2017, 12:20 AM

Anyone know about these guys? Thinking about going in balls deep.

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**GeezerSteve** · 02-07-2017, 07:38 PM

NYT: A Quiet Giant of Investing Weighs In on Trump

**Benny Profane** · 02-07-2017, 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by DIYSteve

NYT: A Quiet Giant of Investing Weighs In on Trump

Yeah, very interesting. My argument, too, about tariffs and protectionism. All the infrastructure spending in the world can't fix what sorrow that would bring, especially in today's world. GM just reported a very shaky quarter, with China slowing down, and he's going to essentially raise their production costs dramatically with his little brown people hate? Idiot.

**Sirshredalot** · 02-07-2017, 08:07 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Yeah, very interesting. My argument, too, about tariffs and protectionism. All the infrastructure spending in the world can't fix what sorrow that would bring, especially in today's world. GM just reported a very shaky quarter, with China slowing down, and he's going to essentially raise their production costs dramatically with his little brown people hate? Idiot.

We also aren't going to get real infrastructure spending. If anything, we will get a boondoggle chucking tax subsidies at businesses cozy with the administration and we will get no actual new infrastructure built. It will be rife with corruption.

**Bobby Finstock** · 07-12-2019, 09:15 AM

Originally Posted by cloud cult

Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

Anyone else in the same boat?

**Marmot or Fox** · 07-12-2019, 12:48 PM

I am still 80% invested but I don't trust any of the house of cards built through tweets and manipulation. With current interest rates what choices do you really have to accumulate wealth or at least conserve it against our "low" inflation? I plan to retire in 5 years and need what is in my IRA to maintain my amazing standard of living.

**m964rsa** · 07-12-2019, 01:05 PM

"number go up"

**406** · 07-12-2019, 01:45 PM

S&P was down 4.4% in 2018 and we are only a little over halfway into 2019.

Seems like a good time to sell stocks. I'm guessing when the crash comes in the next year or two it is going to be a long recovery. Cutting interest rates and taxes might be off the table. Record deficit despite "booming" economy. With "Full employment" and record market seems crazy they are cutting rates again, major inflation & bubbles seem very likely. Although if you look at price of housing, food, fuel inflation already happening?

**Benny Profane** · 07-12-2019, 02:44 PM

Where else will you put your money? Loan sharking?

**406** · 07-12-2019, 03:11 PM

Yeah, that is the problem. I have been selling FXAIX and buying FIKFX,FBKWX, and stable value (2%). Still have ~50% of portfolio in FSMDX & FSSNX, plus some in FXAIX & RNWGX...

**Bobby Finstock** · 11-18-2019, 06:15 AM

Originally Posted by cloud cult

Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

Anyone else in the same boat?

DJIA 28,000!

**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 09:05 AM

**VTeton** · 11-18-2019, 02:06 PM

How'd that work out?

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**fastfred** · 11-18-2019, 02:13 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I disagree

temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done

**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 02:26 PM

Originally Posted by fastfred

I disagree

temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done

Not sure the statistic includes Home Depot pickups.

**mcove** · 11-18-2019, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Maybe 3.5% unemployment rate? 150k new jobs a month means less Temp position?

Not sure I see labor market weakness. Cute chart though.

**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by mcove

Maybe 3.5% unemployment rate? 150k new jobs a month means less Temp position?

Not sure I see labor market weakness. Cute chart though.

The caution would be if temp hires has gone negative f/t hiring might start slowing and perhaps force reductions.

December is one if the biggest months for permanent force reduction and temp hiring also peaks this time of year.

It’s just one data point but with GDP forecasts well below 2% it’s reason for caution on labor:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning's retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.

**Harry** · 11-18-2019, 07:10 PM

Originally Posted by Bobby Finstock

DJIA 28,000!

And it would be over 30,000 if Obama were still in office.

Proof = from Inauguration Day until November 15th of year 3:

Obama = DJIA up 51 percent
Trump = DJIA up 42 percent

THANKS OBAMA !

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**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 07:24 PM

Stock market can continue higher even if or especially if economy and employment slows. Easy to justify force reductions and cost cutting to maintain earnings

**406** · 11-21-2019, 09:29 AM

I'm guessing another 5% bump up between now and June 2020 as long as "consumer confidence" numbers don't drop. Trump has to sign trade deal with Chine prior to June and sounds like China is setting all the terms including signing location. But also think it is almost as likely that the house of cards comes down.