Trump and your 401k: what to sell and when?

[cloud cult]

Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

Anyone else in the same boat?

[Danno]

If you're a buy and hold guy, then hold. Any "loss" would almost surely be made up over time. If, however, you're trying to make money on the whole thing by selling off and then buying after the downslide, I don't have a clue what the proper strategy is.

[GeezerSteve]

I can't stop thinking about it. I sold a bit a couple months ago, staying put with most of my retirement money. NYT Upshot and PredictWise have HRC over DJT 84/16. Princeton has it 99/1. 538 has it 69/31, but roughly half of DJT's 31 is the manifestation of Nate Silver building in the possibility of systemic polling flaws. HRC has the superior ground game in FL and NC. DJT's path to 270 is not impossible but very narrow.

If HRC wins as predicted I plan to rush in Wednesday morning and buy some more low cost broad market ETFs.

[shroom]

i got out when this shit show started to heat up. now if i could buy vix..

[Timberridge]

If y'all are the smart money, who'll be buying...the dumb money?

[jono]

If y'all are the smart money, who'll be buying...the dumb money?

Today? People who think their candidate is going to win. Scratch that, people who Know their candidate is going to win.

[Cono Este]

You never know whats going to happen. But If Trumps wins and he trys to do half of what he's promised Id say the mkt drops at least 25-40%.

If Hillary wins its business as usual until we eventually fall into the abyss some yrs. down the rd.

[assman]

The market is due for a correction no matter who is sleeping in the White House. Plan accordingly

[k2skier112]

The market is due for a correction no matter who is sleeping in the White House. Plan accordingly

wait, what!?!?! you actually had a coherent sentence that was fear mongering partisan hack propaganda. didja concede finally that your guy is a loser?

[Sirshredalot]

If you're a buy and hold guy, then hold. Any "loss" would almost surely be made up over time. If, however, you're trying to make money on the whole thing by selling off and then buying after the downslide, I don't have a clue what the proper strategy is.

Not necessarily. If a Trump presidency means a real loss of economic activity (and it probably would), then the s and p never catches back up to where it would have been in the alternate universe where President Trump never occurs.

[GeezerSteve]

If HRC wins the market will bump up. Likely Fed prime increase in December will temper that but per today's job and compensation numbers and foreign money's confidence in HRC, the market will continue up heading into Obama's de facto third term.

If DJT wins the market will dive and begin a downward spiral for several reasons, e.g., foreign investors pulling out money ASAP, general anxiety of a narcissistic uninformed hair-trigger would-be strongman in the White House, fear of kneejerk trade retaliation without considering the consequences, etc., etc. How much it will go down and how long the bear market might is anybody's guess but the consensus is that a Trump presidency will be a hyooge gut punch on securities markets.

[SkiCougar]

Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

Anyone else in the same boat?

selling based purely on an election for the short term, which is what I would call a 7 to 12% drop is a terrifically bad idea.

you might remember there were many calls that brexit would cause serious drops in the mkts, I believe the drop lasted less than 3 days.

much better is to devlop a strategy and stick to it partially based on your age or follow someone's strategy that has been good for decades.

[GeezerSteve]

Well, although I concur that nearly all lay investors are foolish to try to time the market, the reality is that a steady increase in international trade is one reason -- perhaps the biggest reason -- long-term broad securities hold strategies have worked for decades. Trump in the White House could throw a big fat turd in the punch bowl.

[Timberridge]

much better is to devlop a strategy and stick to it partially based on your age or follow someone's strategy that has been good for decades.

Please. This is no time for levelheadedness.

[Danno]

Not necessarily. If a Trump presidency means a real loss of economic activity (and it probably would), then the s and p never catches back up to where it would have been in the alternate universe where President Trump never occurs.

Never catches up to some alternate reality? So you're saying that if your holdings are 1000 today, a Trump presidency could mean a loss so Yuge that your holdings will never grow to be bigger than 1000? Or are you just saying that it will never do as well as it would have with President Clinton? Because if the former, I disagree. If the latter, perhaps true, but what does that have to do with deciding what to do to protect and grow your existing 1000 (other than voting for Clinton)?

If HRC wins the market will bump up. Likely Fed prime increase in December will temper that but per today's job and compensation numbers and foreign money's confidence in HRC, the market will continue up heading into Obama's de facto third term.

If DJT wins the market will dive and begin a downward spiral for several reasons, e.g., foreign investors pulling out money ASAP, general anxiety of a narcissistic uninformed hair-trigger would-be strongman in the White House, fear of kneejerk trade retaliation without considering the consequences, etc., etc. How much it will go down and how long the bear market might is anybody's guess but the consensus is that a Trump presidency will be a hyooge gut punch on securities markets.

I agree with all of this. And if you're retired or retiring soon this is a Yuge concern. But if your horizon is 10, 15, 20 years, then holding is still the best bet, UNLESS you are trying to make some extra cash and time the market. In which case, I have no advice.

[GeezerSteve]

And if you're retired or retiring soon this is a Yuge concern.

That'd be me and why I got #majorleague election anxiety.

[Timberridge]

Just chase yield Big Steve...live like a King.

[TahoeJ]

2012 GOP post election analysis: we need to appeal to Latino voters or we're screwed. Trump calls Mexicans rapists, etc. and they nominate him. Florida's Latino population has only increased in the past 4 years. I'm not too worried.

[GeezerSteve]

Just chase yield Big Steve...live like a King.

LOLz. With age I've become more of a chickenshit at all things, e.g., skiing, mountaineering, investing

2012 GOP post election analysis: we need to appeal to Latino voters or we're screwed. Trump calls Mexicans rapists, etc. and they nominate him. Florida's Latino population has only increased in the past 4 years. I'm not too worried.

Notwithstanding the 2012 GOP autopsy DJT decided to make a last ditch effort at tapping into latent white nationalist sentiment before the demographics make that impossible. I acknowledge that if there's a systemic polling error, against long odds he could pull it off and, if he does, it would likely be HRC winning the popular vote and DJT eeking by 270. Hoping like hell against it, rooting for HRC's ground game in FL and NC.

[old goat]

You guys are assuming that if Trump wins he would actually do what he says he'll do. You seem to forget that he's a (bankrupt) billionaire who isn't going to throw himself and his ilk under a bus. He'd just keep throwing red meat to his voters--by trying to throw Hillary in jail (unsuccessfully) while blaming all he can't get done on the Democrats who will be happy to accept the credit. Or figure this--the hedge against Trump winning is already accounted for in the market. If you're thinking about hedging your bets you're way too late. Or too put it a third way--economic collapse is generally caused by things most people didn't see coming (someone is always predicting doom but even a stopped clock is right twice a day), and we've seen Trump coming for 15 months. Given that concern about Trump as president has kept stocks lower than they might have been and given the odds on Hillary winning if you sell now you're likely selling low.

[Danno]

You guys are assuming that if Trump wins he would actually do what he says he'll do. You seem to forget that he's a (bankrupt) billionaire who isn't going to throw himself and his ilk under a bus. He'd just keep throwing red meat to his voters--by trying to throw Hillary in jail (unsuccessfully) while blaming all he can't get done on the Democrats who will be happy to accept the credit. Or figure this--the hedge against Trump winning is already accounted for in the market. If you're thinking about hedging your bets you're way too late. Or too put it a third way--economic collapse is generally caused by things most people didn't see coming (someone is always predicting doom but even a stopped clock is right twice a day), and we've seen Trump coming for 15 months. Given that concern about Trump as president has kept stocks lower than they might have been and given the odds on Hillary winning if you sell now you're likely selling low.

on your latter point, I mostly agree, though markets are funny things. On your first point, well, it's not just President Trump I fear, it's Acting President Pence.

[GeezerSteve]

I hear ya old goat but the anxiety of a Trump win alone is likely to be a huge shock to the markets.

[Pegleg]

Yeah, I have to agree that although the markets have been aware of the possibility of a DJT presidency for the last year or so, the working assumption has been that it's not actually going to happen. If it did, then I think the shock would be pretty severe.

I just got off the phone with a Canadian colleague who said they're all watching us with great trepidation. As nervous as I am, I think the international markets are even more so.

[mcsquared]

i got out when this shit show started to heat up. now if i could buy vix..

You can. Kind of. VXX is short term VIX futures. I am up 25%. Probably sell on Monday.

[mall walker]

Somewhat off topic but if there were a way to buy some sort of financial product that bet against the continued valuation of companies like uber and airbnb I would be very interested in that product.