Trump and your 401k: what to sell and when?

**Bobby Finstock** · 07-12-2019, 08:15 AM

Originally Posted by cloud cult

Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

Anyone else in the same boat?

**Bunion 2020** · 07-12-2019, 11:48 AM

I am still 80% invested but I don't trust any of the house of cards built through tweets and manipulation. With current interest rates what choices do you really have to accumulate wealth or at least conserve it against our "low" inflation? I plan to retire in 5 years and need what is in my IRA to maintain my amazing standard of living.

**406** · 07-12-2019, 12:45 PM

S&P was down 4.4% in 2018 and we are only a little over halfway into 2019.

Seems like a good time to sell stocks. I'm guessing when the crash comes in the next year or two it is going to be a long recovery. Cutting interest rates and taxes might be off the table. Record deficit despite "booming" economy. With "Full employment" and record market seems crazy they are cutting rates again, major inflation & bubbles seem very likely. Although if you look at price of housing, food, fuel inflation already happening?

**Benny Profane** · 07-12-2019, 01:44 PM

Where else will you put your money? Loan sharking?

**406** · 07-12-2019, 02:11 PM

Yeah, that is the problem. I have been selling FXAIX and buying FIKFX,FBKWX, and stable value (2%). Still have ~50% of portfolio in FSMDX & FSSNX, plus some in FXAIX & RNWGX...

**Bobby Finstock** · 11-18-2019, 06:15 AM

Originally Posted by cloud cult

Estimates are that stocks would fall 7-12 percent if Trump wins. I'm generally a buy-and-hold type and a 12 percent loss would not spell financial ruin for us, but still wondering what sorts of reasonable proactive measures I can take in the event of a Trump win.

Anyone else in the same boat?

DJIA 28,000!

**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 09:05 AM

**VTeton** · 11-18-2019, 02:06 PM

How'd that work out?

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**fastfred** · 11-18-2019, 02:13 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I disagree

temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done

**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 02:26 PM

Originally Posted by fastfred

I disagree

temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done

Not sure the statistic includes Home Depot pickups.

**CovertM** · 11-18-2019, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Maybe 3.5% unemployment rate? 150k new jobs a month means less Temp position?

Not sure I see labor market weakness. Cute chart though.

**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by mcove

Maybe 3.5% unemployment rate? 150k new jobs a month means less Temp position?

Not sure I see labor market weakness. Cute chart though.

The caution would be if temp hires has gone negative f/t hiring might start slowing and perhaps force reductions.

December is one if the biggest months for permanent force reduction and temp hiring also peaks this time of year.

It’s just one data point but with GDP forecasts well below 2% it’s reason for caution on labor:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning's retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.

**Harry** · 11-18-2019, 07:10 PM

Originally Posted by Bobby Finstock

DJIA 28,000!

And it would be over 30,000 if Obama were still in office.

Proof = from Inauguration Day until November 15th of year 3:

Obama = DJIA up 51 percent
Trump = DJIA up 42 percent

THANKS OBAMA !

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**4matic** · 11-18-2019, 07:24 PM

Stock market can continue higher even if or especially if economy and employment slows. Easy to justify force reductions and cost cutting to maintain earnings

**406** · 11-21-2019, 09:29 AM

I'm guessing another 5% bump up between now and June 2020 as long as "consumer confidence" numbers don't drop. Trump has to sign trade deal with Chine prior to June and sounds like China is setting all the terms including signing location. But also think it is almost as likely that the house of cards comes down.

**Brock Landers** · 11-21-2019, 10:00 PM

Lot of guessing.

Who is selling risk now who is buying. Simple question. Put your nuts on the table.

**Bobby Finstock** · 11-22-2019, 08:00 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Put your nuts on the table.

**mcphee** · 11-22-2019, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Put your nuts on the table.

Then bang them shits with a spiked fucking bat

**VTeton** · 11-23-2019, 06:27 AM

Originally Posted by Harry

And it would be over 30,000 if Obama were still in office.

Proof = from Inauguration Day until November 15th of year 3:

Obama = DJIA up 51 percent
Trump = DJIA up 42 percent

THANKS OBAMA !

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Obama took office while stock market was at historic lows, no where to go but up

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**Peruvian** · 11-23-2019, 06:57 AM

Since when is the stock market an indicator of the overall economy.

I’m glad my Apple stock is doing well, but that hardly means mom and pop businesses are booming.

**Lindahl** · 11-23-2019, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by VTeton

Obama took office while stock market was at historic lows, no where to go but up

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Who put it there?

**SkiCougar** · 11-23-2019, 09:16 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Lot of guessing.

Who is selling risk now who is buying. Simple question. Put your nuts on the table.

ok,

1'm majority leveraged longs, so if thing fall apart on something turning bad quiclk like china trade or a war kicks off somewhere; i'm getting hurt; but as it seems the market doesn't see anything serious from the trump impeachment given it wnet no where during the whole thing and trump is likely to be re-elected at this point and time and the world FEDs are pumping markets; i'm leveraged long.

hard to say the upside between here and election day, but my wild ass guess is at least 5% and a pop of at least 3% after the election to close 2020 if trump is re-elected.

(if warren or Bernie or most any democrat wins, i'm going leveraged short post election)

**splat** · 11-23-2019, 09:36 AM

Originally Posted by fastfred

I disagree

temp labor, especially in the trades/ construction, skilled and unskilled is plan stupid, the people provided are worthless, alot of employers, myself included have just given up on hiring because the pool of eligible help is such poor quality, if you ask them to put just alittle effort into working and thinking your met with a huge resistance this is young and old, most of these people are not only lazy but they have drug and alcohol issues as well as boarder line untreated mental issues, you'll pay x amount for 8 hrs and only get 3-4 hours of actual completed work done

You should hire a temp to spellcheck and make sentences out of your run-on rants.

**warthog** · 11-23-2019, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Lot of guessing.

Who is selling risk now who is buying. Simple question. Put your nuts on the table.

Where does doing nothing factor in? My brilliant investment strategy has always been to pump a set amount into my 401k, and not worry about it until I am 10 years away from retirement. The way I see it, I have bought a shitload more shares when the market was down. I will slowly move some of it into less risky shit once I hit 50 I think.

I don't get paid to think about this shit all day long though, so maybe my take is a bit amateur?

**El Chupacabra** · 11-23-2019, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by warthog

Where does doing nothing factor in? My brilliant investment strategy has always been to pump a set amount into my 401k, and not worry about it until I am 10 years away from retirement. The way I see it, I have bought a shitload more shares when the market was down. I will slowly move some of it into less risky shit once I hit 50 I think.

I don't get paid to think about this shit all day long though, so maybe my take is a bit amateur?

Nope, that is ideal. Pick your long term strategy and stick with it. Constant trading and chasing trends will cost you IMHO.