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  1. #101
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    Wow. I wouldn't be so quick to buy low later in the week... could be a continued tumble for a bit depending on how Trump conducts himself. Markets like stability and if he comes off like his usual self the rebound may not happen for a bit.

  2. #102
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    Stock futures are less than .5% below the Friday close right now.

  3. #103
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    Stump now elected??? I'd say sell ALL of the 401k and put it into bunker necessities: canned tuna, water, crackers.....hearing protectors.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alaskan Rover View Post
    Stump now elected??? I'd say sell ALL of the 401k and put it into bunker necessities: canned tuna, water, crackers.....hearing protectors.
    SP futures back above 2100. Maybe sell TSLA.

  5. #105
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    In my inbox this morning, from T Rowe Price:

    2016 U.S. Elections and the Markets
    Uncertain Investment Outlook Comes With President-Elect Trump
    November 9, 2016
    With Donald J. Trump’s election as president, T. Rowe Price investment managers are braced for heightened uncertainty amid concerns about the efficacy of his sweeping proposals to stimulate jobs, improve growth, and reduce the deficit.
    Key Points

    With the surprising election of Donald J. Trump as president, T. Rowe Price investment managers are braced for an uncertain investment environment.
    During his campaign, Mr. Trump offered sweeping proposals that would represent significant changes in U.S. fiscal, trade, immigration, and tax policies.
    The firm’s experts say that his plans are unlikely to stimulate jobs and economic growth while reducing deficit spending as promised.
    They see the next president as a wild card that could initially create investor fears and a downturn in global markets.
    In the long term, however, investors may settle into managing the shock given the U.S. system of checks and balances.
    With the surprising election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States, T. Rowe Price investment managers are braced for a highly uncertain investment environment.

    During his campaign for the presidency, Mr. Trump offered sweeping proposals that would represent abrupt, significant changes in U.S. fiscal, trade, immigration, and tax policies. If carried out, they could have a potentially strong impact on U.S. and international economies and investments in a wide range of global equity and fixed income sectors.

    Several major caveats are important. Mr. Trump has no track record governing. His campaign proposals at times seemed vague and inconsistent, even contradictory. Moreover, there historically have been big gaps between presidents’ campaign promises and ultimate actions. Finally and most importantly, investment returns can be affected by many other factors: central banks’ actions, commodity price movements, and corporate fundamentals, among them.
    The unpredictability of the impending Trump presidency likely creates investor apprehensions that could negatively impact global financial markets, T. Rowe Price economists and investment professionals say.

  6. #106
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    CAMPAIGN PROMISES
    That said, President-elect Trump has proposed big individual and corporate tax cuts without sufficient offsets from greater revenue—resulting in projections of large deficits that, he predicts, will be made up by faster economic growth.

    He has proposed a sharp pivot toward protectionism, by renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), not signing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, declaring China a currency manipulator, and even possibly withdrawing from the World Trade Organization. He also has vowed to curtail immigration to the United States and deport millions of illegal immigrants.

    Altogether, Mr. Trump has claimed, these and his other proposals would create 25 million new jobs over the next decade, reduce the annual federal deficit, and raise the U.S. gross domestic product annual growth rate to 3.5% from around 2.0% currently.

    However, the consensus among T. Rowe Price economic and investment experts is that the very opposite outcomes may occur if the new president is able to carry out these campaign proposals.

    Mr. Trump’s plans could drive up annual U.S. budget deficits and its long-term debt and significantly diminish international trade, with negative economic effects here and abroad. They also could slow U.S. job growth, lower the U.S. economic growth rate, and put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. Ultimately, they threaten to undermine global faith in the independence of the Federal Reserve and the geopolitical standing of the United States.

    The unpredictability of the impending Trump presidency likely creates investor apprehensions that could negatively impact global financial markets, T. Rowe Price economists and investment professionals say. “Overall, financial markets may not react well to the outcome of this election,” says Alan Levenson, T. Rowe Price chief U.S. economist. “The risk to U.S. growth in the near term is to the downside.”

    Adds Jeff Rottinghaus, manager of the U.S. Large-Cap Core Equity Strategy: “Markets could go down materially because Trump is such a wild card.”

    In the short term, says Andrew McCormick, head of the U.S. taxable bond team, the election outcome is a big, surprising event that the bond market had not fully priced in. “Initially,” he says, “U.S. interest rates may go lower as investors flee riskier assets, and credit spreads (the yield premium of lower-rated bonds over Treasuries) may widen.”

    Mr. Trump’s election comes at a critical time when U.S. fiscal policies have become more important as the Fed moves away from easing, European banks remain very fragile, and some nations are jockeying for geopolitical positioning versus the United States, says Quentin Fitzsimmons, a T. Rowe Price global bond manager. “Now the world’s only superpower is seeing a big change,” he says. “That’s very concerning, and it could raise volatility.”
    The institutional checks and balances on the U.S. president—the president is not all powerful—may mean that global investors ultimately decide to keep their heads down, not overreact, and just try to ride out the next four years.
    - Quentin Fitzsimmons, T. Rowe Price global bond manager
    While cautioning against making too much of any parallel to the United Kingdom’s anti-globalization vote last summer to leave the European Union, Mr. Fitzsimmons notes that “the initial reaction to Brexit was extremely bumpy, but then things calmed down, at least for a while. Similarly, with a Trump presidency, it may be that investors are headed for a prolonged period of shock management.

    “The institutional checks and balances on the U.S. president—the president is not all powerful—may mean that global investors ultimately decide to keep their heads down, not overreact, and just try to ride out the next four years,” he says.
    PROTECTIONISM
    The longer-term risk with Mr. Trump’s election, Mr. Fitzsimmons says, is that “apprehension over his protectionist agenda could lead to reduced global growth expectations—because the United States could end up with an adverse mix of slower growth and marginally higher inflation.”

    Mr. Levenson says he’s particularly concerned about the president-elect’s protectionism because Mr. Trump has fairly extensive unilateral executive authority to take action against trade partners.

    “Trump’s trade threats—to Mexico and China—may be no more than opening ploys to secure concessions,” Mr. Levenson says. “But the risks of miscalculation are high and could lead to very damaging trade wars—which could have a negative impact across the U.S. economy, not just those areas directly linked to international trade. I am not aware of any country in history that ever isolated its way to prosperity.”

    Demanding renegotiation of NAFTA, Mr. Levenson adds, “would be particularly damaging—for a president to take such unusual actions with countries [Mexico and Canada] that on the whole are good neighbors with whom we have good relations.”

    Also potentially negative for the U.S. economy is Mr. Trump’s promised immigration crackdown, Mr. Levenson says, noting that economic growth comes from productivity growth and growth in the labor force. “If we slow immigration of working-age adults, there’s not enough growth in the rest of the U.S. workforce or the overall productivity rate to grow the economy very fast. Most of our net population growth comes from immigration,” he says.

    Some of Mr. Trump’s campaign proposals—particularly corporate tax cuts, looser regulations, and increased federal outlays for defense and infrastructure—“could be positive, a marginal fiscal stimulus for the U.S. economy in the short term,” Mr. Levenson says. “But that could lead to bigger deficits than otherwise and potentially higher interest rates in the absence of economic strength.”

  7. #107
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    IMPLICATIONS FOR EQUITIES
    While Mr. Trump’s election likely could create periods of market volatility, some T. Rowe Price managers say his plans could be relatively favorable for stocks in certain highly regulated sectors, such as health care, energy, financials, and industrials. Here’s a brief summary:

    Health care: Given the sector’s concerns about drug pricing and regulatory pressures if Hillary Clinton had been elected, Mr. Trump’s vow to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could end up being “modestly positive” for health care stocks, says Ziad Bakri, manager of the Health Sciences Strategy.

    While the president-elect has talked about allowing importation of foreign-sourced drugs and permitting Medicare to negotiate drug prices, “his election overall is perceived as good for drug stocks,” he says, adding that some of these companies also would benefit from a foreign profits repatriation deal.

    More emphasis on free-market health plans under Mr. Trump likely could aid managed care firms, which have been losing money under the ACA, but could hurt hospitals, which have benefited from greater usage by previously uninsured ACA patients.

    Energy: Mr. Trump has promised an “energy revolution.” And his anti-regulation stance, his vow to expand energy production including revitalizing the coal industry, and his opposition to the Paris climate agreement and other steps to limit climate change all could be favorable for the energy sector, managers say.

    “In a vacuum, more energy production is a good thing—more jobs, cheaper oil, cheaper gas,” Mr. Rottinghaus says. “Less regulation could help energy investments because it could lower companies’ costs to pull resources out of the ground.”

    Financials: If the market initially sells off with Mr. Trump’s election, financial services stocks are unlikely to rise but the sector may do relatively better than others, says Gabriel Solomon, manager of the Financial Services Strategy.

    In the intermediate term, the president-elect’s vow to repeal Dodd-Frank regulations might be positive for some financials if enough safeguards remain in place to manage systemic risks, Mr. Solomon says. “But a blanket repeal of Dodd-Frank would not be positive because some of the regulations are good for managing the risks that led to the 2008‒2009 financial crisis,” he says.

    Mr. Trump’s promise to then reinstate Glass-Steagall legislation also might be positive for some of the big banks that would have to break up ties between their retail and investment banking functions. “If you take some banks apart, the sum of the parts may be worth more than the current whole,” Mr. Solomon says.

    But long term, he says, Mr. Trump’s “deficit spending proposals, in the absence of economic growth, could lead to higher interest rates and inflation that could create structural problems similar to the 1970s, which would not be good for financials.”

    Industrials: Peter Bates, manager of the Global Industrials Strategy, says two of Mr. Trump’s plans—lowering corporate taxes and loosening federal regulations—could bring back some U.S. manufacturing and jobs. Renegotiating NAFTA and erecting trade barriers—short of triggering destructive trade wars—would be less significant for U.S. manufacturers, he says.

    “Industrials are focused on building products the world will consume as cheaply as possible,” Mr. Bates says. “Companies have made significant investments in Mexico. With higher tariffs, more stuff may be made in America on the margin, but companies are not going to shift away suddenly from Mexico. Their higher costs from any tariffs would just get passed on as inflation to consumers. What happens in the long term for industrials depends on relative cost structures, and that’s not just tariffs and taxes.”

    Also, campaign promises to raise defense and infrastructure spending are “unlikely to drive a material impact” on the outlook for industrials because the additional spending could be merely incremental to what already is budgeted, Mr. Bates says.

    Technology: Mr. Trump’s stated immigration and trade policies generally would hurt the U.S. technology sector, says Josh Spencer, manager of the Global Technology Equity Strategy. Technology is one of the most globally competitive U.S. sectors and relies on an influx of highly skilled talent from around the world and global supply and distribution chains.

    Lower taxes, particularly on repatriated overseas profits, would be a positive for global technology firms that have billions of dollars parked abroad. “But if you believe what Trump has said, his election overall may not be a good scenario for the tech sector,” Mr. Spencer says.

    Nonetheless, three inexorable trends essentially determine the future of technology stocks, he says: the growth of cloud computing, disruption of traditional industries due to the Internet’s increasing pervasiveness, and technologies pushing into new end markets, such as self-driving cars. “Trump’s election does not change these trends,” Mr. Spencer says.
    The Fed’s credibility is going to be under pressure, and that’s an international story, not just a national story.
    - Quentin Fitzsimmons, T. Rowe Price global bond manager
    FIXED INCOME
    While U.S. short-term rates may go lower initially as investors flock to the relative safe haven of U.S. Treasuries, Mr. McCormick says, “There could be pressure for rates to go higher as investors digest the deficit spending pushed by Mr. Trump.”

    “You can expect to see more volatility in bonds, but the market is likely to react in an up-and-down, saw-tooth pattern. If U.S. rates go higher, overseas buying could come in and limit rate rises,” he says.

    Mr. Fitzsimmons agrees, adding: “Bond markets globally are likely to see upward pressure on yields over the long term, with a steepening of the yield curve. U.S. protectionism would be very disruptive to investment flows and planning.

    “We also should take into account potential risks to emerging markets and how they will behave, starting with Mexico, because of the impact of his macro policies on inflation, trade, capital flows, general confidence, and a slower growth trajectory,” he says.

    Greater market and geopolitical volatility could induce central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to at least temporarily stall on their path toward tightening, Mr. Fitzsimmons says. “When faced with volatility,” he says, “central banks tend to kick the ball further into the long grass—so they may end and maybe deepen their easing cycles.”

    The pressure would be particularly great for Fed Chair Janet Yellen, whom Mr. Trump has already threatened to replace. “The Fed’s credibility is going to be under pressure,” he says, “and that’s an international story, not just a national story.”

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alaskan Rover View Post
    Stump now elected??? I'd say sell ALL of the 401k and put it into bunker necessities: canned tuna, water, crackers.....hearing protectors.
    You should have done that 8 years ago.
    watch out for snakes

  9. #109
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    Big reversal down in Treasury bonds.

  10. #110
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    Stocks up this morning. Life goes on.
    Decisions Decisions

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Stocks up this morning. Life goes on.
    Interest in cos. w foreign holdings, potential increase in private capex domestically seems like it may occur, no?
    Success has many fathers, while failure remains an orphan // Many men go fishing all of their lives without knowing that it is not the fish they are after - HDT

  12. #112
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    Hahaha. Market is up.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  13. #113
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    Trump and your 401k: what to sell and when?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontana View Post
    Interest in cos. w foreign holdings, potential increase in private capex domestically seems like it may occur, no?
    No idea. If they do the foreign tax repatriation thing, those stocks would jump. Not sure about more private capex though- why would it? Most capex heavy companies are energy or materials or related companies...more to do with oil price or commodity prices (and usd). Unless I'm missing something?
    Ps is that Mitch McConnell? Or the ghost of Aubrey McClendon? Eerie
    Decisions Decisions

  14. #114
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    It appears that Wall Street is going to attempt running roughshod on Trump and they have him over a barrel. Is he going to be the great deregulatory as he claimed?

  15. #115
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    There's a couple areas that should do better not necessarily with trump but with non Clinton and by extension Lizzie Warren. Biotech/pharma. Financials. Energy. I don't even think he has to be very deregulatory....if that's a word. Not sure of trumps ultimate impact on the fed (or if it matters when the time comes anyway).

    Rates did pop today but not sure if it's somewhat permanent. 10-30s pretty attractive compared to other options so wouldn't be surprised to see foreign investors and pension plans continue to buy here.
    Decisions Decisions

  16. #116
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    If he repatriates that trillions in offshore money, that's gotta be good for Wall Street. It's going somewhere.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  17. #117
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    Let's not kid ourselves. This guy has no clue. He's probably memorizing maps right now. His treasury secretary and probably commerce will be very important. Look out if his son in law gets the gig. Dear lord.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  18. #118
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    He has already made most of those picks clear - two billionaires are going to get two of the most powerful (fiscal) cabinet positions - one is a hedge fund manager Steven Mnuchin (treasury) that is clearly not removed from current investments, the other is Forrest Lucas (interior) also 100% in that industry. In what world are any of the 3 (trump the millionaire included) able to avoid complete conflict of interest as all 3 have repeatedly denied any kind of blind trust. Just their word?

    They see the US and earth in general as an ATM that exists for their abuse, irregardless of the condition it is left in. Anyone think for a second that they would not flood the grand canyon and use it for a pool if it would turn a profit.
    Climb the mountains and get their good tidings. Natures peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop away from you like the leaves of Autumn. - John Muir

    "How long can it last? For fuck sake this isn't heroin -
    suck it up princess" - XXX on getting off mj

    “This is infinity here,” he said. “It could be infinity. We don’t really don’t know. But it could be. It has to be something — but it could be infinity, right?” - Trump, on the vastness of space, man

  19. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    If he repatriates that trillions in offshore money, that's gotta be good for Wall Street. It's going somewhere.
    Absolutely. Whether it be r&d, dividends, repair balance sheets (that aren't already). Also helps the budget obviously...maybe training programs for a growing wave of jobs in the next 60 years? Roads...wireless...bridges...
    Still need a more concrete plan going forward for foreign earnings coming home
    Decisions Decisions

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    maybe training programs for a growing wave of jobs in the next 60 years?
    Yeah, 'cause the robots that'll be filling those jobs need such a big training budget...

    Seriously, one of the great risks of a Trump presidency is a lack of comprehension regarding all the Second Machine Age stuff. I see no evidence he has an economics team that can grasp this. But the job impact is already happening - the jobs Trump promised to repatriate are never coming back. And the ones that are here produce more with less labor. And unlike Clinton, Trump seems ready to spend like crazy without a rational tax plan for revenue. The odds of that working well seem slim to me.

    I do believe Clinton's team was on the ball in terms of sizing up the structural (un)employment issues coming from automation. Now we'll never know how they'd have handled it.

    It is a pity. With an administration and congress that could have gotten this, a whole lot of abundance could have been distributed and a whole lot of misery avoided. The investment implications are unclear to me.

  21. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by spindrift View Post
    Yeah, 'cause the robots that'll be filling those jobs need such a big training budget...

    Seriously, one of the great risks of a Trump presidency is a lack of comprehension regarding all the Second Machine Age stuff. I see no evidence he has an economics team that can grasp this. But the job impact is already happening - the jobs Trump promised to repatriate are never coming back. And the ones that are here produce more with less labor. And unlike Clinton, Trump seems ready to spend like crazy without a rational tax plan for revenue. The odds of that working well seem slim to me.

    I do believe Clinton's team was on the ball in terms of sizing up the structural (un)employment issues coming from automation. Now we'll never know how they'd have handled it.

    It is a pity. With an administration and congress that could have gotten this, a whole lot of abundance could have been distributed and a whole lot of misery avoided. The investment implications are unclear to me.
    NPR did a thing about Youngstown a few days ago, as he was campaigning there promising that 1958 would return to the poor sods who were left. But, an industry expert they interviewed said that a French firm just opened a new 1.5 billion steel plant. It only employs 400.

    Let's do some livin'
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  22. #122
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    The private prisons will employ them. cxw up 40% today. Geo 20%. Other than a bailout for the failed private student loan mills there's no need for billions in training

  23. #123
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    Funny bit on the "overseas" cash. As of 3 years ago Apple managed much of it via a subsidiary in Nevada, held it via banks in New York and maintained the register in Texas. So it was already here.

  24. #124
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    Robots are real fuckers

    Anti-robot 2020 ftw
    Success has many fathers, while failure remains an orphan // Many men go fishing all of their lives without knowing that it is not the fish they are after - HDT

  25. #125
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    I'm thinking companies that make lawnmowers would be a good investment now since we're all gonna have to cut our own grass from here on out. Also ladders since we'll have to do our own painting. Prison companies already doing well. What else?

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