Trump and your 401k: what to sell and when?

[Benny Profane]

I said auto *and* credit card debt. Americans are carrying a scary amount of non mortgage debt right now and it's not sustainable. I don't care to argue with you Benny, do whatever the hell you want.

If it's debt you're concerned with, you're looking at the wrong problem. Student debt is sapping our economy, and stimulating only a small segment, the academic industry. Auto and credit card is a stimulus for all, and easily manageable. Student debt is disabling a large portion of our economy, and worsening the class divide and further death of the middle class, as those without loans are entering adulthood with many more advantages, and, even discouraging those from lower classes to go to school, which we'll deal with the effects from in a decade or two. There are worse Trumps to come. A smart politician would call a holiday on most of that debt. Instant stimulus, and much relief. It may take a worse depression for that.
China is the big bubble. That economy is so friggin ready to pop, and, when it does, as the second largest in the world, look out. Maybe it wont, because the central committee won't allow it to, but then it's Japan on steroids for a few decades or more. No way they're getting out of this in good shape. That's your big one. Short that, somehow.
I still believe we are in a slow, worldwide depression, brought on by the last crash in the west, technological change (robots), and aging demographics. You've seen the big pop, and the powers that be will be trying to avoid the inevitable for years by floating our shit with easy money. Your car and credit card debt is nothing compared to the alternative. Japan is your marker. They're way ahead of the rest of us, and it's been over twenty years.

[spindrift]

A quick not quite tangential comment on China. One place they have a sea anchor is that the amount of leverage allowed in the housing market is relatively tiny. Unless something has changed in the recent few years, you can only leverage a first home a very modest amount (and many are cash deals). A second, almost nothing. And zilch on a third. So you can have folks taking a beating, but you can't have an entire housing market deleverage the way ours did.

[Harvey44]

There's a reason industry parlance for people who pay off their balance every month was "deadbeats"

Ha I never knew that. I've had one single card for over 30 years and never carried a balance.

They are so nice to me when I call. I know they aren't making huge bucks on me but that seems like easy money?

[Benny Profane]

Good article about the China debt bubble. You can break through the paywall just as you do getting into the WSJ.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/chin...sis-1478322658

[4matic]

EEM up 3%.

[frorider]

http://qz.com/829054/asian-markets-f...est-statement/

Comey to markets: "Psyche!"

[Toadman]

Having bought a vehicle last year, I have to say it's amazing how strong the auto industry is. You want to buy a new Subaru in the state of WA, you basically are paying close to MSRP. Forget trade in value on your used vehicle. Best to sell it yourself.

There must still be lots of churn and burn CC offers out there. I did that for a few years after college until I was able to pay off the balance. Every 6 months move the balance to a new card with 6 month 0% interest on balance transfers. Maybe those days are done though?

Looks like the market took a pop this morning on speculation that Clinton will win the electoral college.

[4matic]

Looks like the market took a pop this morning on speculation that Clinton will win the electoral college.

Potential for a top 20 all time point move in $SPX.

[Bobby Finstock]

If Hillary wins its business as usual until we eventually fall into the abyss some yrs. down the rd.

Yup. Washington & Wall St elites haven't finished hollowing out the middle class. Hillary will buy them at least another four years.

[old goat]

Ha I never knew that. I've had one single card for over 30 years and never carried a balance.

They are so nice to me when I call. I know they aren't making huge bucks on me but that seems like easy money?

They're still making plenty off the merchants every time you use the card. No need to feel guilty. There's a name for people who don't pay off their balance every month--fools. And while we're at it--best financial advice I ever got was from our 6th grade gym teacher--never buy a car on credit. (Guy was an ex-Washington General, got fired after they got pissed off and beat the Globetrotters one day.)

[Benny Profane]

They're still making plenty off the merchants every time you use the card. No need to feel guilty. There's a name for people who don't pay off their balance every month--fools. And while we're at it--best financial advice I ever got was from our 6th grade gym teacher--never buy a car on credit. (Guy was an ex-Washington General, got fired after they got pissed off and beat the Globetrotters one day.)

No, that makes no sense in a cheap money world. Borrow at 3%, while your money makes 5-7. Much smarter. An auto is a depreciating asset. It goes to zero, eventually.


Back to the subject at hand, you wonder how yesterday's spike in the markets will influence the angry old white guys who have an IRA and other investments to vote Hillary today. People vote their pocketbook, right?

[Sirshredalot]

No, that makes no sense in a cheap money world. Borrow at 3%, while your money makes 5-7. Much smarter. An auto is a depreciating asset. It goes to zero, eventually.


Back to the subject at hand, you wonder how yesterday's spike in the markets will influence the angry old white guys who have an IRA and other investments to vote Hillary today. People vote their pocketbook, right?

With a few exceptions, people don't vote their pocketbook in any rational way.

[4matic]

Market was tomb quiet for about an hour and then some fireworks. Active reversals in stocks, bonds, and gold. Dollar steady.

JPM breaking out to all time highs.

There is resistance at $SPX 2140-2160

[old goat]

No, that makes no sense in a cheap money world. Borrow at 3%, while your money makes 5-7. Much smarter. An auto is a depreciating asset. It goes to zero, eventually.

How many people making car payments do you think are investing the money they would have spent buying for cash? Maybe in your world, but for the vast majority of people it's because they're buying more car than they can afford and don't have the cash to either buy or invest. Makes sense to borrow for something that will make you money in the long run--education (we hope), a house that appreciates (we hope) and for which you would have to pay rent if you didn't buy. Beyond that, you're making yourself poor and the bankers rich.

[4matic]

Borrow at 3%, while your money makes 5-7.

Even you don't believe that. Take almost five times the five year risk free rate on a depreciating asset? There is no free lunch.

[4matic]

How many people making car payments do you think are investing the money they would have spent buying for cash? Maybe in your world, but for the vast majority of people it's because they're buying more car than they can afford and don't have the cash to either buy or invest. Makes sense to borrow for something that will make you money in the long run--education (we hope), a house that appreciates (we hope) and for which you would have to pay rent if you didn't buy. Beyond that, you're making yourself poor and the bankers rich.

It depends on where you live. If you have to commute regularly and drive a lot of miles a reliable car is a solid investment in your safety and career.

I'll give you another example. If you commute 80 miles per day a new leased Nissan Leaf is a effectively a free car.

[Benny Profane]

How many people making car payments do you think are investing the money they would have spent buying for cash? Maybe in your world, but for the vast majority of people it's because they're buying more car than they can afford and don't have the cash to either buy or invest. Makes sense to borrow for something that will make you money in the long run--education (we hope), a house that appreciates (we hope) and for which you would have to pay rent if you didn't buy. Beyond that, you're making yourself poor and the bankers rich.

Well, I'm one. But, I'm special.

[Benny Profane]

It depends on where you live. If you have to commute regularly and drive a lot of miles a reliable car is a solid investment in your safety and career.

I'll give you another example. If you commute 80 miles per day a new leased Nissan Leaf is a effectively a free car.

A CAR IS NOT AN INVESTMENT. For Christ sake.

[4matic]

A CAR IS NOT AN INVESTMENT. For Christ sake.

Never said it was. Your safety and career certainly are. Would you want your wife or child commuting through Oakland in some old beater?

[wyeaster]

oakland and its hordes of scary black people, amirite 4matic?

[4matic]

oakland and its hordes of scary black people, amirite 4matic?

You don't work or commute so how would you know? I lived in East and West Oakland because I had to earn a living.

You don't know where I been.

[Benny Profane]

Never said it was. Your safety and career certainly are. Would you want your wife or child commuting through Oakland in some old beater?

Yes, you used the word.

And, I guess we all have our way to justify the German steel. Good luck with that. Do yourself a favor though. Total up all the "ssfety" and "career" premium o er the years on a spread sheet at, oh, 5%. Nice little retirement fund, isn't it?

[wyeaster]

i lived in pittsburg, bro! family all over sf and oakland. you and i are kindred souls! we both hang out here, we both love golf, we both love sliding on snow -- you do, don't you? did you like ben and jerry's wild maine blueberry as much as i did?

[4matic]

Yes, you used the word.

No, that's not what I said. I said a good reliable car is an investment in your safety and career. The car itself is not. I drove junk forever. You still do.

[4matic]

i lived in pittsburg, bro! family all over sf and oakland. you and i are kindred souls! we both hang out here, we both love golf, we both love sliding on snow -- you do, don't you? did you like ben and jerry's wild maine blueberry as much as i did?

Still live ten minutes from there only it's the barrio instead of the ghetto. Got my spot in line for basketball at Mosswood Park taken by a guy with a crack pipe and a 40 so I quit going. Oppression man! Had my car tapped a couple times too.

I loathe Ben and Jerry's