Climate Change

[subtle plague]

Do parts of India become unsurvivable for the poor with the current infrastructure?

As long as it Stays dry pre monsoon heat you can cool yourself, even at 50 degrees. The Persian gulf has predictions of reaching a wet bulb temp of 38 degrees in certain weather patterns by 2050, which means unsurviable.

[LegoSkier]

Sort of like the first chapter of Ministry for the Future
https://www.orbitbooks.net/orbit-exc...or-the-future/
Life beginning to imitate art unfortunately.

[WMD]

As long as it Stays dry pre monsoon heat you can cool yourself, even at 50 degrees. The Persian gulf has predictions of reaching a wet bulb temp of 38 degrees in certain weather patterns by 2050, which means unsurviable.

Yes, as long as wet bulb temperatures stay below 35C it isn't necessarily fatal to spend time outside, but many people will still die at 45-50C.

More than 5 million people die each year globally because of excessively hot or cold conditions, a 20-year study has found – and heat-related deaths are on the rise.
The study involving dozens of scientists around the world found that 9.4% of global deaths each year are attributable to heat or cold exposure, equivalent to 74 extra deaths per 100,000 people.
It’s prompted calls for better housing insulation and more solar-powered air conditioning, as well as warnings that climate change will increase temperature-linked deaths in the future.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...ng-study-finds

[SumJongGuy]

Oh come on.. this is not unprecedented by any measure.. Temps were hotter and for longer periods of time when the earth was a blob of flaming molten rock..

[The SnowShow]

Seems as good a place as any to put this down: Heatwave: Fires blaze after UK passes 40C for first time



My part of the world is used to these kinds of temps in summer, but we've built for it, expect it and know how to live with it. The fact that the UK is now experiencing similar temps is sobering.

Sobering and terrifying. World governments need to declare emergencies now. This lack of coordinated, meaningful action is enraging.

[WMD]

Sobering and terrifying. World governments need to declare emergencies now. This lack of coordinated, meaningful action is enraging.

The US government should do this. But we aren't and probably won't.

These heatwaves are not the "new normal." They are just a phase we are passing through on our way to wherever we end up when we finally get to net zero emissions. Right now emissions are still increasing...

[up an down]

The US government should do this. But we aren't and probably won't.

These heatwaves are not the "new normal." They are just a phase we are passing through on our way to wherever we end up when we finally get to net zero emissions. Right now emissions are still increasing...

Yes.. Enjoy your beach vacations in the next decade before the beaches are submerged.. And try to see glaciers while they still exist.

[The SnowShow]

The US government should do this. But we aren't and probably won't.

These heatwaves are not the "new normal." They are just a phase we are passing through on our way to wherever we end up when we finally get to net zero emissions. Right now emissions are still increasing...

How are we getting to net zero emissions continuing down this path?

[mcphee]

^a combination of hemming/hawing and kicking/screaming

[The SnowShow]

I’m serious though, what’s it going to take? Entire continents on fire, under water and millions dying before governments decide, hey, maybe we need to mobilize!

[mcphee]

^nationalizing the oil, defense, and energy transmission industries would be my guess. Not sure why we ever thought that big business left to it’s own devices would be good environmental/social stewards.

[SumJongGuy]

I’m serious though, what’s it going to take? Entire continents on fire, under water and millions dying before governments decide, hey, maybe we need to mobilize!

That's kinda like expecting common sense gun regulation after Columbine...after Sandy Hook.. after the next one... after the next one.. etc... We're at the mercy of the American Taliban. It's getting worse and quickly..

[WMD]

How are we getting to net zero emissions continuing down this path?

We aren't. And that is why this is so crazy. The important point is that until we do get to net zero, warming will continue to increase. It is only when we reach net zero (or soon thereafter) that warming will stop. But there's no going back. The warming we've already experienced, and will experience as we continue to emit GHG's, will be baked in.

We actually have the technology to address this to cut emissions in half this decade, and that helps us have time to find solutions for the last parts we haven't figured out yet. But we aren't deploying current solutions anywhere near fast enough to decrease emissions. It's madness that we aren't doing this.

And to Joe Fuckwad Manchin, the Manchinian candidate, "The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment. Fixating on short term growth while the parent company teeters on the brink of collapse is as myopic as it is negligent." Quote from random tweet.

[jonesy]

Perhaps there is more involved with climate change than net zero. Who's to say what will be deciding factors in earth's temperatures.

[californiagrown]

People are aggressively resistant to change until they are directly and acutely impacted. The same reason why obesity is such a problem is the same reason why anthropogenic climate change is a problem:

Most people will sacrifice tomorrow to feel good today. On a macro scale as a society, as well as on a micro scale in peoples personal lives. Delayed gratification is rare and is the root cause of many/most of our problems as a species. Its leftover from when we were literally living day-to-day just trying to survive each day.

[WMD]

Perhaps there is more involved with climate change than net zero. Who's to say what will be deciding factors in earth's temperatures.

Um, climate scientists who spend their whole lives studying this?

It's really pretty simple. CO2 stays in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Every molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere warms the planet by trapping some of the heat escaping from the earth's surface. The more CO2, the warmer it gets. Same for other greenhouse gases. Stop adding these gases to the atmosphere and temps level off, no longer increasing but not decreasing either.

Yes, there are other factors besides net zero - there are feed-back loops and tipping points that can cause more melting of permafrost, thus releasing more methane (more potent but shorter lived than CO2), which leads to more warming, in a disastrous loop, or when changing ocean temps disrupt major ocean currents which lead to radical changes in weather patterns. But stopping adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is key to limiting warming.

Sadly we have not chosen to prioritize this yet. All of the disasters happening now are happening at 1.1-1.2C of warming. Every additional tenth of a degree of warming will make these worse and more frequent. Right now we are in a path to around 3.2C according to the last IPCC report. That is a dramatically different planet than the one we live on today. We will most likely surpass 1.5C around 2033, and 2C by mid century. This is our problem, not just our grandkids problem.

[californiagrown]

Um, climate scientists who spend their whole lives studying this?

It's really pretty simple. CO2 stays in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Every molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere warms the planet by trapping some of the heat escaping from the earth's surface. The more CO2, the warmer it gets. Same for other greenhouse gases. Stop adding these gases to the atmosphere and temps level off, no longer increasing but not decreasing either.

Yes, there are other factors besides net zero - there are feed-back loops and tipping points that can cause more melting of permafrost, thus releasing more methane (more potent but shorter lived than CO2), which leads to more warming, in a disastrous loop, or when changing ocean temps disrupt major ocean currents which lead to radical changes in weather patterns. But stopping adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is key to limiting warming.

Sadly we have not chosen to prioritize this yet. All of the disasters happening now are happening at 1.1-1.2C of warming. Every additional tenth of a degree of warming will make these worse and more frequent. Right now we are in a path to around 3.2C according to the last IPCC report. That is a dramatically different planet than the one we live on today. We will most likely surpass 1.5C around 2033, and 2C by mid century. This is our problem, not just our grandkids problem.

There needs to be a balance of taking measures to address climate change without crashing the world economy and thus stagnating/reducing technological breakthroughs that will help address the issue. At what point is it too late to stop the climate change train, and we would be better off throwing money at technological innovation to adapt to CC, as opposed to tech devoted to decreasing greenhouse gasses and preventing CC from happening?

[jonesy]

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
Contradictions .

[The SnowShow]

We aren't. And that is why this is so crazy. The important point is that until we do get to net zero, warming will continue to increase. It is only when we reach net zero (or soon thereafter) that warming will stop. But there's no going back. The warming we've already experienced, and will experience as we continue to emit GHG's, will be baked in.

We actually have the technology to address this to cut emissions in half this decade, and that helps us have time to find solutions for the last parts we haven't figured out yet. But we aren't deploying current solutions anywhere near fast enough to decrease emissions. It's madness that we aren't doing this.

And to Joe Fuckwad Manchin, the Manchinian candidate, "The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment. Fixating on short term growth while the parent company teeters on the brink of collapse is as myopic as it is negligent." Quote from random tweet.

It’s mind boggling that more isn’t being done if we have the tech to address it. Fuck all these powerful yet backward fossil fuel assholes who are going to destroy this planet.

[The Tortoise]

This, only a little slower.

[WMD]

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
Contradictions .

Yes, natural cycles change the climate slowly over long periods of time. The latest IPCC report looked at those and said with natural cycles and events alone we should be cooling slightly. Instead we are warming faster than ever before, and this is human caused. All of it.

[WMD]

There needs to be a balance of taking measures to address climate change without crashing the world economy and thus stagnating/reducing technological breakthroughs that will help address the issue. At what point is it too late to stop the climate change train, and we would be better off throwing money at technological innovation to adapt to CC, as opposed to tech devoted to decreasing greenhouse gasses and preventing CC from happening?

Climate change will crash the world economy. Our current global infrastructure was built for a climate that no longer exists. Upgrading it to withstand the planet with unchecked warming would cost trillions and even then we can't adapt to much of the change that is coming.

The measures needed to mitigate it would cost just a few percentage points by 2050 before taking into account the savings from needing less adaptation and from avoided impacts, according to latest IPCC report.

We need emissions to peak by 2025 to keep warming below 1.5 or even 2C. Above 2C will be catastrophic for many humans and we can't adapt our way out of that world. Some places will become unlivable and many species will die.

On a 2C pathway nearly all the world's coral will be dead by 2050. So what? Nearly a billion people rely on food from coral reefs, as does 25% of all other ocean life. How do we adapt to losing this food source? When those people can't get food they will migrate. Where? Who will take them? Lots of social unrest and war will ensue. It is already happening and the scale of migration is tiny now compared to what it will be.

That said it is never too late to stop the climate train because even 2.5C of warming is a better future than one with 3c of warming. Even 2.6 would be way worse than 2.5 - every tenth of a degree of warming from here on out will make life much worse and millions more will suffer and more people will die.

[jonesy]

^ WMD no argument about the climate crashing the economy or that people will have to move from certain locations to survive.

[raisingarizona13]

Oh we are fucked. Big time.

I feel things are snowballing now and the climate is heating more than predicted. Its a negative feedback loop.

I'm trying to live in the moment and enjoy some of the last good days we have left.

[shafty85]

How are we getting to net zero emissions continuing down this path?

We aren't.

Sure we will. Whether humans achieve it through technology and a change in mindset or by going extinct, one way or the other net zero will be achieved.