SNOW IN THE PNW 2016-17: Return of the Shred-i

[Bandit Man]

Pulled this poster out of the old sturtevants in Bellevue.

Got the same one up in my garage by the work bench.

[AK47bp]

Got the same one up in my garage by the work bench.

Exactly where I hung mine.

[jackattack]

A couple well hung posters.

[AK47bp]

A couple well hung posters.

Nice one

[PNWbrit]

Not good.

http://www.yakimaherald.com/news/loc...e88b3130d.html

Update, 9:50 a.m. — State Route 410 between Chinook Pass and the Hell's Crossing campground will remain closed for an unknown amount of time, possibly through the weekend.

"The closure is for the safety of the public," said state Department of Transportation spokeswoman Summer Derrey.

Visibility remains poor due to smoke, and trees near the highway continue to pose a danger of catching fire, Derrey said.

Additional information for travelers and anyone making plans for the weekend will be released from the park service later today, Derrey said.

YAKIMA, Wash. — State Route 410 between Chinook Pass and the Hell’s Crossing campground remains closed Thursday due to spread of the Norse Peak Fire.

The highway was closed Wednesday afternoon due to smoke creating poor visibility and safety concerns that trees near the highway could catch fire, said state Department of Transportation spokeswoman Summer Derrey.

Officials have no estimate on when the road will reopen, but Derrey plans to provide an update following a mid-morning conference call on the situation.

[core2]

Anyone know how Timberline is holding up? Will they make Labor Day?

[Jonathan S.]

Anyone know how Timberline is holding up? Will they make Labor Day?

Had to downhike only around 250 vertical feet after dawn patrol this morning.
Upper Palmer skier's left of lift is fat with most training lanes empty.
(Skier's right is gone.)
Lower Palmer is good too, except for a narrow connection with the Mile, which stays in nice shape since nobody else laps it.

[Jonathan S.]

Pics here:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/NERandoR...59106070797299
... from Adams on Tuesday & Wednesday (each day the same route of South Climb up to ski down SW Chutes, then back up to Lunch Counter, followed by skiing down through Crescent Glacier and finally switching over) and Hood for Thursday dawn patrol (just laps on the groomers).

[pipedream]

Body of missing skier recovered from Pebble Ck waterfall:
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-...mount-rainier/

[PNWbrit]

Body of missing skier recovered from Pebble Ck waterfall:
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-...mount-rainier/

Awful...

As are the Norse Peak and Bumping Lake area fires.





Apparently much less fire activity along 410 which opened for a while.

Boundary between fire and Crystal is being defended/fought by two helicopters.

[Norseman]

Might open up some interesting burn skiing within day trip range of Crystal.

You getting smoked out in your hood?

[PNWbrit]

Might open up some interesting burn skiing within day trip range of Crystal.

You getting smoked out in your hood?

Yep. The thought had crossed my mind.

Nope, it's all going to the east.

[CelebratedSkier]

SW chutes Wednesday...

[PNWbrit]

Latest on 410 fires.

"Throughout the afternoon today, smoke built up over the Norse Peak Fire area indicating increased fire activity and spread. These conditions were expected due to the weather that had been forecast for the area. North of Gold Hill, the Union Creek Fire crossed Union Creek, moved east and joined the Norse Peak Fire. These fires are moving south around the eastern side of Gold Hill along Union Creek. There was also intense heating and significant fire spread along the northeast side of the Norse Peak Fire deeper into the wilderness. Fire does not appear to have crossed Survey Creek, but may have joined Fire 367 to the north.
The American Fire continued to descend north towards the American River. It did not move south towards the Bumping Lake Recreation area.
Night Crews will be monitoring the fires and conditions along Highway 410 through the night."

[Norseman]

Jolly Mtn fire north of Cle Elum is pumping. That'd be my vote without looking at sat images.


https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5496/

[PNWbrit]

Its been smokey the last two days in east king county. Is this from the fire by the 410 or more smoke from BC?

I think it's mostly from the Oregon or Cle Elum fires?



But it sure isn't helping.

Edit to add GW fire chief just posted on FB that spread towards Crystal has been limited. Latest map

[PNWbrit]

Jesus, estimated containment date for the Jolly mountain fire is October 15th. https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5496/

Granted I never had to deal with wild fires in NC (or they were so uncommon it never was seen as a big deal for peoples daily life), so I don't know how long it usually takes to get fires under control here, especially with how dry it is.

I'm ready for the rainy season.

If you haven't already take a drive through the Methow Valley and notice how close previous fires have come to homes there. In some cases too close.

[Norseman]

Jesus, estimated containment date for the Jolly mountain fire is October 15th. https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5496/

Granted I never had to deal with wild fires in NC (or they were so uncommon it never was seen as a big deal for peoples daily life), so I don't know how long it usually takes to get fires under control here, especially with how dry it is.

I'm ready for the rainy season.

Long estimates on containment just mean, "whenever it rains or snows on the thing." Could be sooner than their guess. They'll make fire lines where practical and try to contain, but this weather is challenging.

Heavy fuels in rough terrain aren't "put out" until the skies do so.

[Norseman]

Yes, not a bad fire season (yet). The super wet winter was helpful.

Burns can make good skiing, especially if the trees fully torch.

[PNWbrit]

seattle with over 55 days or whatever the record is now

Another 19 days since that little sprinkle on day 55?

[Norseman]

Norse peak fire blew up yesterday.




MODIS thermal shows fire in Cement basin, Lake basin, crow creek, goat creek, and Greenwater river headwaters... in addition to the west side of Norse peak.





Yikes! I bet Crystal Mtn mgmt and Gold hills cabin owners are starting to sweat! Hope this cool wave helps out a bit.

[PNWbrit]

Lake Basin yesterday.

[PNWbrit]

Cool wave? I don't know what weather service you are looking at, but weather.com shows it heating up with 90s for about 6 days starting in September (further inland from the sound - this is north bends weather).

It doesn't look like it may cool down until mid September at least. Such BS, I moved here expecting beautiful weather, but somehow I brought the heat from the South(east) - Do people still call the SE USA, the South, or is the South here considered CA? haha

It's eleven degrees cooler this morning than yesterday... try going outside?

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/photos/WAOW...0-105128-0.pdf

The Norse Peak Fire, Union Creek Fire, and Fire 367 (now 12,904 acres) have grown
together and expanded through much of the north side of Gold Hill, Union Creek, the North Fork of Union
Creek, Crow Creek, and Falls Creek. Fire crossed the Pacific Crest Trail west of Crow Lake. Flames
hundreds of feet high were observed from Raven’s Roost on Tuesday evening and, in one afternoon, a 5-acre
spot fire northeast of the main fire grew to approximately 700 acres.....

Weather and anticipated fire behavior: The weather will be much milder for two days, with temperatures down 10-12 degrees and relative humidity up 10-30% in the fire area. Although western winds will strengthen
throughout today, the fire behavior is anticipated to decrease. In some upper basins, even those sheltered
from wind, there is still significant energy. The Norse Peak Fire will continue to consume dry fuels, producing
abundant smoke, but less anticipated growth or spread

[PNWbrit]

Looking at weather.com (I know, I know), crystal mountain is showing the same trend as where I am. Obviously a little bit cooler, but the cool weather was from 13th to the 26th of this month. Its warming up basically until mid September at least even there.

The cool down Norse mentioned is the current short lived one that I gave you evidence of. Yes the long term forecast is not looking great.

Use NOAA/NWS rather then the weather channel and add NWAC in winter.

Never mention weather.com here again, that's for airport televisions and elevator infotainment screens.

[Stikki]

Never mention weather.com here again, that's for airport televisions and elevator infotainment screens.

Ensemble forecasts are fine, if not superior, for basic weather. Per Dr. Mass:

So why do the Weather Channel, Weatther Underground and Accuweather produce better forecasts than the National Weather Service on average? The key reason is that they generally make use of multiple weather forecast models (e.g., US GFS, European Center and UK Met Office models), and then do sophisticated sophisticated statistical postprocessing to combine the forecasts in an optimal way. The National Weather Service has lagged in statistical postprocessing, depending heavily on a forty-year old system called MOS, Model Output Statistics. Thus, it the guidance provided to National Weather Service forecasts has been less than state of the art.

...

The future will be one where garden variety weather is mainly taken care of by statistically corrected ensembles of models, with humans spending most of their time dealing with extreme weather, resolving with model problems, and communicating forecasts to the public and critical user communities.

Even today if you are looking for a weather forecast on average day, the forecast from your typical weather app (weather.com, accuweather, etc.) are fine. But when severe weather is possible, turning to an outlet in which humans are carefully following the situation is advised.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/0...forecasts.html