Matthew is coming for the EC

**neufox47** · 10-03-2016, 08:14 PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016...6_5W_014_0.GIF

Not until after it is done fucking up Haiti, eastern Cuba and the bahamas though.

Still a chance it goes out to sea but looking more like it at minimum grazes the south east. The GFS has a pretty terrifying track of it scraping up the cost of Florida, Georgia, and making landfall in SC.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...pact/91462552/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/010847.shtml

**BmillsSkier** · 10-03-2016, 08:23 PM

Heading over to HHI to board up the house this weekend if it looks bad as the week goes on. Been longer than I can remember since I had to dig out the hurricane window panels - ten years easy.

The way the continent is shaped, Low Country is able to avoid direct hits with hurricanes most times, it's almost like a giant bay tucked back in with those idiots in the Outer Banks being the ones with their chins out in the weather. Worst in my life was Hugo. Saw our deck ripped off and neatly placed on a 45 angle into the side of the neighbor's house.

**FussyDutchman** · 10-03-2016, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by neufox47

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016...6_5W_014_0.GIF

Not until after it is done fucking up Haiti, eastern Cuba and the bahamas though.

Still a chance it goes out to sea but looking more like it at minimum grazes the south east. The GFS has a pretty terrifying track of it scraping up the cost of Florida, Georgia, and making landfall in SC.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...pact/91462552/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/010847.shtml

GFS = Pffftttt

!

But seriously, dangerous possibilities for all on the EC and especially the SE. Hoping for an easterly swing.

**iceman** · 10-03-2016, 08:27 PM

Yeah I've been watching this with interest. Anything can happen a few days out but no doubt it is horrible for the poor bastards in the Caribbean now and the Bahamas starting tomorrow (if it hasn't already started there). Thread about it here: http://www.thehulltruth.com/northeas...e-matthew.html

**iceman** · 10-03-2016, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

Heading over to HHI to board up the house this weekend if it looks bad as the week goes on.

I mean who knows what it will do but if it stays as currently predicted, HHI will be getting it by about Friday night so I'd keep an eye on that. Boarding up this weekend might be a little later than optimal.

**BmillsSkier** · 10-03-2016, 08:43 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

I mean who knows what it will do but if it stays as currently predicted, HHI will be getting it by about Friday night so I'd keep an eye on that. Boarding up this weekend might be a little later than optimal.

As soon as I replied to this thread I started looking at the various links/models. And you're right. Could be a 4 day weekend coming! Ugh.

**BmillsSkier** · 10-03-2016, 09:02 PM

Thanks, you'll know it's bad if you see one asshole (me) tearing up the pavement down I-16 in the wrong direction Thursday as the GSP starts using those hurricane evacuation route gates I've never seen used to make the highway into a one-way west-bound route.

**huckbucket** · 10-03-2016, 09:05 PM

Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

As soon as I replied to this thread I started looking at the various links/models. And you're right. Could be a 4 day weekend coming! Ugh.

Say Hi to my folks down there. They're "over-reactors" and probably have the weather channel on 24/7 at this point.

**digitaldeath** · 10-03-2016, 09:12 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Yeah I've been watching this with interest. Anything can happen a few days out but no doubt it is horrible for the poor bastards in the Caribbean now and the Bahamas starting tomorrow (if it hasn't already started there). Thread about it here: http://www.thehulltruth.com/northeas...e-matthew.html

Worried about the beach house?

I mean who knows, God could destroy all beachfront mansions...

**BmillsSkier** · 10-03-2016, 09:31 PM

Originally Posted by huckbucket

Say Hi to my folks down there. They're "over-reactors" and probably have the weather channel on 24/7 at this point.

And I'm the serial under-reactor. If I have to head down I'll be the one pissed off at everyone not moving as fast as I want them to.

Originally Posted by digitaldeath

Worried about the beach house?

I mean who knows, God could destroy all beachfront mansions...

DD is Benny?

**iceman** · 10-03-2016, 09:34 PM

Nah, I just like weather. The house isn't on the beach anyways, it's up a hill and well back from the water.

**MTT** · 10-03-2016, 10:20 PM

It's a bad one.

The Haitians do not need this. Looks like they are already in distress just evacuating to shelters under the rain.

**neufox47** · 10-03-2016, 10:24 PM

11PM update from NOAA:
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured
two peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along
with a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure
measured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the
previous flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 125 kt.

Matthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt.
There is no change to the previous short-term track forecast
reasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours,
followed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That
portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.

00Z GFS moved further west. I know this is just one model at one moment, days into the future, but HOLY SHIT look at that storm track. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guida...Size=M&ps=area

If that comes true it will be like getting 3 hurricanes at once. Everywhere from South Florida to North Carolina getting hit. If you are in the path of this thing you may want to start thinking about what you are going to do if it hits. You may want to find a copy of your insurance policy and do a little light reading too.

"Hi Agent, any chance I can get hurricane and flood insurance that starts Wednesday?

**iceman** · 10-03-2016, 10:28 PM

Are you looking at an image neufox? All I see is numbers.

They moved the track well west, the Bahamas are in trouble.

**neufox47** · 10-03-2016, 10:35 PM

Maybe I can't link to the exact model? I am looking at the GFS here - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Its a very klunky website if you don't know the site.

**cat in january** · 10-03-2016, 10:50 PM

Going to be terrible in Haiti with the mudflows.

**BigDaddy** · 10-04-2016, 05:07 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Are you looking at an image neufox? All I see is numbers.

They moved the track well west, the Bahamas are in trouble.

This is not looking pretty. Westport may take it straight up, too.

SB · 10-04-2016, 05:23 AM

Reported 40" of rain in Haiti

**Vt-Freeheel** · 10-04-2016, 06:19 AM

We don't need any quick heavy rain in VT, the ground is so dry and hard right now it would all run off and cause a shitton of damage.

**iceman** · 10-04-2016, 06:27 AM

Currently, and not that it's worth much, the forecast looks like a strong cold front coming through from the NW late Sunday as the storm draws closer to New England and should push it out to sea.

Bmills they moved it getting to HHI even earlier, Thursday looks like the day to batten down the hatches.

**Brock Landers** · 10-04-2016, 06:37 AM

Good Hurricane name.

BMills- not like theres anything going on this weekend anyway that you may want to watch. Hopefully it gets close enough to the cape to get some good south facing fishing after the sea settles down

**BigDaddy** · 10-04-2016, 06:39 AM

Windsurfing should be good.

**BmillsSkier** · 10-04-2016, 07:23 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Currently, and not that it's worth much, the forecast looks like a strong cold front coming through from the NW late Sunday as the storm draws closer to New England and should push it out to sea.

Bmills they moved it getting to HHI even earlier, Thursday looks like the day to batten down the hatches.

Leaving today after work or at like 5am tomorrow depending on how the day goes. I'm legitimately concerned now about being able to get in as the storm tracks north.

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Good Hurricane name.

BMills- not like theres anything going on this weekend anyway that you may want to watch.

Haha. A hurricane would be the icing on the cake for this season.

**skiballs** · 10-04-2016, 07:50 AM

A storm of biblical proportions.

It should be interesting along the Chesapeake. Last time there was a similar track as predicted, there was four feet of water where I'm living. The girl friend lives about a hundred yards from the atlantic.
The only up side for me is the roofing bis should be really busy this fall.