Massive El Nino CA 2016

[wendigo]

This is an accurate quote.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0709092955.htm

60% reduction in the suns power...

based upon model estimates.


This was reached using the "jump to conclusions" doormat.

...will more than cancel out any warming due to climate change.

[BGnight]

The earth is going to experience rising oceans, desertification, and warming temperatures into infinity because that's what I was told by people who said they read an article on it.
Greedy corporations have far more influence on snow levels than the sun. That bright thing just makes things easier to see. Carbon dioxide trumps all other factors that determine weather cycles. I WAS TOLD SO!!!

If any reputed scientist was to warm of an ice age it's obvious he was paid by the Koch brothers and/or Exxon.

[BGnight]

Fyi, an ice age is far more detrimental to the earth's species than any human induced climate change. Let's pray it doesn't happen because you'll be far more worried about finding food than how much it snowed at Squaw (cuz there's will be no resort skiing)

[Game Over]

This is an accurate quote.
based upon model estimates.


This was reached using the "jump to conclusions" doormat.

look up the Maunder minimum. if that happens it will more than counter any warming effect, but only for a few years. BTW this is not climate science where the models put out by the best in the field have constantly been way off-> this is solar science and its a lot more "exact" if you will. FWIW they are 97% certain this will happen.

[Bromontana]

resort skiing is overrated.

Seriously. Favorite ski area? USFS slopes above snow line.

[cat in january]

look up the Maunder minimum. if that happens it will more than counter any warming effect, but only for a few years. BTW this is not climate science where the models put out by the best in the field have constantly been way off-> this is solar science and its a lot more "exact" if you will. FWIW they are 97% certain this will happen.

That is the funny

[ClarkleberryFinn]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0709092955.htm

60% reduction in the suns power will more than cancel out any warming due to climate change.

Er, no...

60% reduction in SOLAR ACTIVITY - by which they mean sunspots.

A 60% reduction in the actual power of the Sun would see us all very quickly dead.

__________

BTW it's still not so certain this will really cause all that much cooling - some recent studies say that the last time this happened volcanic activity at the time was responsible for much of the cooling... But there's so much contradictory bullshit out there it's hard to know what to believe.

[Game Over]

yes I misspoke, I meant sunspots. that is beside the point.

the point -> if this reduction happens it will be cold for a few years.

[Game Over]

That is the funny

what part of that do you have issue with? are climate models not constantly off? or is it my use of exact while describing solar science? the 97% certain part? if my understanding of the issue is off please correct me.

[wendigo]

the point -> if this reduction happens it will be cold for a few years.

what part of that do you have issue with? are climate models not constantly off? or is it my use of exact while describing solar science? the 97% certain part? if my understanding of the issue is off please correct me.

The point is this model forecasts reduced sunspot activity. Nobody is debating that, then you make a conceptual leap that this will cool the planet, a de facto climate model. Something that you state as always inaccurate.

[Game Over]

The point is this model forecasts reduced sunspot activity. Nobody is debating that, then you make a conceptual leap that this will cool the planet, a de facto climate model. Something that you state as always inaccurate.

No, my statement was based the article I posted. specifically the part I quoted below.

and once again-> this phenom may influence climate but it is not climate science-> this is solar science.

"Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645. "

edit-> also never said that it would cool the planet, just that it would more than offset any warming for a few years.

People need to chill out and stop jumping on anyone who does not automatically subscribe to (or even remotely question) the notion that the earth is going to explode because of anthropological climate change. Keep in mind that I never said the earth is not warming. Or that man is not helping it warm. Simply said that the science behind the models is (as far as sciences go) a total fucking crap shoot.

[Canada1]

Weather nerds, what does a big el nino mean for Utah and the Wasatch. Is my memory correct that this means a predominate track that benefits southern Colorado and New Mexico?

Hope you guys in Tahoe and Reno benefit from this. The water table out there needs a big bounce!!

[LightRanger]

Weather nerds, what does a big el nino mean for Utah and the Wasatch. Is my memory correct that this means a predominate track that benefits southern Colorado and New Mexico?

Hope you guys in Tahoe and Reno benefit from this. The water table out there needs a big bounce!!

???

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...23#post4518323

[adrenalated]

"Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645. "

edit-> also never said that it would cool the planet, just that it would more than offset any warming for a few years.

That's the point. The article (and all other article I've read on the topic) merely says that the solar activity will mimic the solar conditions observed during the "mini ice age."

There are no predictions in that article about how much that reduction in activity will cool the planet. Additionally, and more importantly, there is no analysis or predictions related to how the reduced sunspot activity will interact with the rising temperatures we have currently been observing. And there is conclusion as to whether or not the Earth, overall, will continue warming, begin to cool, or stay constant during this period.

You, on the other hand, have made that conclusion, by stating "it would more than offset any warming for a few years."

So what are you basing this on? 'Cause it ain't in the article.

Personally, I have no idea if the reduced sunspot activity will cool the Earth enough to temporarily negate the effect of warming due to climate change.

[wendigo]

model predictions that solar activity will fall to conditions not seen since the mini ice age that began in 1645 ≠ "more than offset any warming for a few years". this second portion is purely conjecture on your part.
since you know that "the science behind the models is (as far as sciences go) a total fucking crap shoot" you are aware of this.

as far as caring about your opinions on climate change

[Game Over]

well shit. great points. I concede to being a dumbass on this one.

[Canada1]

???

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...23#post4518323

Thanks,

I knew I asked the question somewhere but then couldn't find the thread again.

[LightRanger]

No problem. Fingers crossed.

[raisingarizona13]

We have been getting non stop moisture here in NAZ since April. It's kind of ridiculous. Local snow sliders are getting very excited.

I haven't been this stoked for winter in years.

[boarddad]

Pretty impressive day in So Cal today. The best June rainstorm I've ever seen. The day started with an amazing lightning storm that even torched some palm trees and shut down all of the beaches in the South Bay (Torrence up to El Segundo that I can confirm).

Before you get all global warming political about it, no, this is not unprecedented. Long Beach was hammered by a tropical storm in Sept '38 and San Diego was hit by a full-on hurricane in the late 1800's. Both thought to be El Niño events though.

No matter how you look at it, it sure was nice to see actual rain for the first time in forever. Here's to lots more.

[Rip'nStick]

Pretty impressive day in So Cal today. The best June rainstorm I've ever seen. The day started with an amazing lightning storm that even torched some palm trees and shut down all of the beaches in the South Bay (Torrence up to El Segundo that I can confirm).

Before you get all global warming political about it, no, this is not unprecedented. Long Beach was hammered by a tropical storm in Sept '38 and San Diego was hit by a full-on hurricane in the late 1800's. Both thought to be El Niño events though.

No matter how you look at it, it sure was nice to see actual rain for the first time in forever. Here's to lots more.

Smells like Hawaii outside, I forgot how much I like that smell

[BrandonH]

Which is a completely made-up figure pulled from the nether regions of tax-money-grubbing Church of Global Warming clergy. Scientology is a hell of a money-making scheme, but it's nothing compared to the genius of "Global Warming".

Who doesn't want to "save the Earth"? What kind of asshole hates the Earth and wants to let the oceans rise and wipe out humanity? Oh the horror of it. Just have your we-know-what's-best-for-you politicians send your tax dollars to the "right people" (their people), and "we'll sell carbon credits and regulate corporations to take care of this impending doom" for you.

Nudge-nudge, wink-wink, cha-ching cha-ching.

^^This....

Brought to you by the same so-called "experts" that warned us of the oncoming ice age back in 1977.

[Peruvian]

^^^that mag cover is a fake.

http://science.time.com/2013/06/06/s...oming-ice-age/

[Peruvian]

Oh and plenty of people don't want to "save the earth". They just want to profit off its resources for a few more quarters.

[HansJob]

If it brings as much moisture as they're saying, I'll be packrafting Badwater Basin.