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  1. #2726
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    I could have predicted this would be the direction you would go. I could try to claim that the sky is blue and many of you guys would try to tell me that I'm wrong.
    So, as predicted, you aren’t married. Got it.
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  2. #2727
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    So, as predicted, you aren’t married. Got it.
    He was but couldn't handle her alarmist clock waking him up all the time. He tried to tell her that nobody gets fired for not showing up at work on time.. Time is all a myth manufactured by the clock makers to scare the general public in to conforming to un necessary temporal norms.
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  3. #2728
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    "Countries from Siberia to Australia are burning: the age of fire is the bleakest warning yet"

    "On any day, between 10,000 and 30,000 bushfires burn around the planet.
    "Realms as diverse and distant as Siberia, Amazonia, Indonesia, Australia and California are aflame. The advent of “the age of fire” is the bleakest warning yet that humans have breached boundaries we were never meant to cross."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...st-warning-yet

  4. #2729
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    The number of major fire years, in which more than a million acres burned, has also increased in Alaska, says Rupp. Although there were only eight major fire years from 1950 to 1989, from 1990 to 2018 there were 11 years in which more than a million acres burned.

    https://time.com/5657188/alaska-fire...limate-change/

  5. #2730
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    I remember you being the insult police. Have you found any instances of me insulting someone without being first provoked? You still working on that?
    Yup. Right here ^. Nope, haven't needed to, especially after I conceded that a lot of people have insulted you.

    But really, if your point is that the globuhl warminz folks are just a bit over the top and screechy, maybe it's time to consider your own tone?
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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  6. #2731
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster Highmen View Post
    Yup. Right here ^. Nope, haven't needed to, especially after I conceded that a lot of people have insulted you.
    Your initial assessment wasn't wrong because ron's tactics are an insult, too. Among the more insidious games ron plays is feigning ignorance about previously discussed topics.


    For example, on the previous page ron asked "Where are you getting that heavy [extreme rainfall] means 95th percentile?" but the definition of rainfall two or three standard outside the norm for a given time period was discussed at length earlier, all with the typical back-and-forth that is characteristic of these discussions.

    And again, Ron repeatedly asked, "How in the world is it not a regional drought, when it only in one region of Australia? Since rainfall rates in Australia haven't decreased despite this drought, that means other regions must be receiving more rainfall" or describing it as a"small regional trend" when the question was already asked and answered.

    Rainfall across south and eastern and southwestern Australia has declined long term while rainfall has increased across parts of northern Australia. So answer is, unlike regional drought in the past, per the discussion 3-4 pages ago, Anthropogenic long term warming is the most important driver of changing climate patterns in Australia. In other words, it's like asking how can the American West be drying when rainfall is increasing in the American Northeast?


    Those are just two of the many, many examples of ron's attempts to poison the well. It's asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, or making the same arguments from the beginning over and over even though those arguments were debunked or updated.

    Skeptics don't have to accept the answers or the updated information but pretending the questions haven't been answered or the discussion hasn't been elucidated is an insult both to the individual and to the community as whole.

  7. #2732
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    My assessment was that he couldn't read graphs, so no real point in engaging.
    Props to MV for taking the time.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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  8. #2733
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Your initial assessment wasn't wrong because ron's tactics are an insult, too. Among the more insidious games ron plays is feigning ignorance about previously discussed topics.


    For example, on the previous page ron asked "Where are you getting that heavy [extreme rainfall] means 95th percentile?" but the definition of rainfall two or three standard outside the norm for a given time period was discussed at length earlier, all with the typical back-and-forth that is characteristic of these discussions.
    I know we have discussed rainfall, but I do not recall ever having a discussion where we determined that 'heavy' means 95th percentile. I'm not sure what your point is anyway because I have never denied that rainfall has been increasing, I've taken issue with 'extreme' rainfall increasing. You seem to believe that heavy = extreme.
    And again, Ron repeatedly asked, "How in the world is it not a regional drought, when it only in one region of Australia? Since rainfall rates in Australia haven't decreased despite this drought, that means other regions must be receiving more rainfall" or describing it as a"small regional trend" when the question was already asked and answered.

    Rainfall across south and eastern and southwestern Australia has declined long term while rainfall has increased across parts of northern Australia. So answer is, unlike regional drought in the past, per the discussion 3-4 pages ago, Anthropogenic long term warming is the most important driver of changing climate patterns in Australia. In other words, it's like asking how can the American West be drying when rainfall is increasing in the American Northeast?
    Your answer was useless drivel. It is of course a regional drought because it is confined to a region of Australia. How can that regional drought be blamed on CO2 when there has been no increase in drought in Australia, and no increase in drought throughout the world?

    To further enforce the realities of natural climate variability with relation to droughts, California experienced a 180 year drought and a 240 year drought within the past 1300 years. And yet, the recent small drought in California was being blamed on CO2. Imagine if that happened today!

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/01/...cientists-say/
    Those are just two of the many, many examples of ron's attempts to poison the well. It's asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, or making the same arguments from the beginning over and over even though those arguments were debunked or updated.

    Skeptics don't have to accept the answers or the updated information but pretending the questions haven't been answered or the discussion hasn't been elucidated is an insult both to the individual and to the community as whole.
    If those are your two examples of me 'poisoning the well,' then you have nothing on me. Your repeated accusations of me lying, misrepresenting, or having been debunked, without ever providing real evidence other than your cherry picked studies that don't conform to consensus or real data is shameful behavior.

  9. #2734
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    Quote Originally Posted by WMD View Post
    "Countries from Siberia to Australia are burning: the age of fire is the bleakest warning yet"

    "On any day, between 10,000 and 30,000 bushfires burn around the planet.
    "Realms as diverse and distant as Siberia, Amazonia, Indonesia, Australia and California are aflame. The advent of “the age of fire” is the bleakest warning yet that humans have breached boundaries we were never meant to cross."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...st-warning-yet
    No surprise that you have learned nothing.

  10. #2735
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster Highmen View Post
    My assessment was that he couldn't read graphs, so no real point in engaging.
    Props to MV for taking the time.
    You guys will never live that down will you? All because I didn't look closely at a graph, because next to the graph in large font was the the number I expected to see.

  11. #2736
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    why are you guys even engaging with this gigantic fucking JONG??

  12. #2737
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    Because I'm banging his imaginary wife, duh
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  13. #2738
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    You guys will never live that down will you? All because I didn't look closely at a graph, because next to the graph in large font was the the number I expected to see.
    I'm OK with it.

    You on the other hand are the one not likely to live it down.

    No, really, skepticism is good. And it's a good lesson to see the difference.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
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  14. #2739
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    Your initial assessment wasn't wrong because ron's tactics are an insult, too. Among the more insidious games ron plays is feigning ignorance about previously discussed topics.
    That alone is what makes me think this is a Bot.
    Ooof!

  15. #2740
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    Diamond Joe is right but on the off chance anyone cares the the studies discussed earlier in this thread on 95th percentile extreme/heavy/etc., rainfall events are now part of the 2018 IPCC consensus:

    So contrary to ron's false accusations of cherry picking and ignoring the consensus, the IPCC's 2018 Report on Global Warming says "It is likely that there have been statistically significant increases in the number of heavy precipitation events (e.g., 95th percentile) in more regions than there have been statistically significant decreases, but there are strong regional and subregional variations in the trends" where per the earlier discussion heavy, extreme, and several other synonyms for outlier 95th percentile rainfall events were all discussed at length earlier in this thread.


    The study describing how climate change is exacerbating extreme heat events as well as droughts, all part of a long term pattern change in Australia is linked on page 107 in post #2652.


    And FWIW the two examples above were just two recent examples of ron's tactics. Anyone paying attention to this thread knows ron tries poison the well by among other things asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, without engaging in good faith.

  16. #2741
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    As an addendum to the previous page,

    Earlier in this thread it was discussed how a shifting mean, associated with something like warming global temperatures, leads to large changes at the extremes, increases the odds of extreme heat events. Just like much of the planet, Australia has warmed over the past decade culminating in 2019 as the hottest summer on record for New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, which was 1.35 °C above its previous record. South Australia and Tasmania had their second-hottest summers on record, and Queensland its third-hottest.

    In the past decade Australian heatwave records were broken in 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019 across a much larger area even though a some of smaller area of records still stand. Some might even call that a trend.

    So while it true a lot of hot/cold pre-1950 records still stand, particularly in U.S. Midwest, the ratio of hot to cold records in the modern era are falling by 2 or 3 to 1 every year, that is hot/heatwave records are being broken at two to three times the rate as cold records are being set.

  17. #2742
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    WronG johnson doesn't really conveniently forget his out dated talking points have been debunked multiple times. He instead doubles and triples down claiming he proved the consensus wrong.
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  18. #2743
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Diamond Joe is right but on the off chance anyone cares the the studies discussed earlier in this thread on 95th percentile extreme/heavy/etc., rainfall events are now part of the 2018 IPCC consensus:

    So contrary to ron's false accusations of cherry picking and ignoring the consensus, the IPCC's 2018 Report on Global Warming says "It is likely that there have been statistically significant increases in the number of heavy precipitation events (e.g., 95th percentile) in more regions than there have been statistically significant decreases, but there are strong regional and subregional variations in the trends" where per the earlier discussion heavy, extreme, and several other synonyms for outlier 95th percentile rainfall events were all discussed at length earlier in this thread.
    Link me to where heavy is a synonym of extreme. I've never seen a climate headline about heavy precipitation.

    The study describing how climate change is exacerbating extreme heat events as well as droughts, all part of a long term pattern change in Australia is linked on page 107 in post #2652.
    I'm sure no one in this thread, including yourself, is going to read your 200 page pdf. It should be apparent to you that there are climate scientists that try to blame everything on global warming. There is no way I am going to accept that that regional drought is due to CO2 when there is no increase in drought in Australia or the world.

    Even if we accept that drought to be the result of CO2, what does it even matter if drought isn't increasing in Australia or the world?

    And FWIW the two examples above were just two recent examples of ron's tactics. Anyone paying attention to this thread knows ron tries poison the well by among other things asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, without engaging in good faith.
    Your constant accusations against me are made up, and should be obvious to see to anyone actually paying attention.

  19. #2744
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    My accusation of you probably being an incel is correct, though...
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  20. #2745
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    As an addendum to the previous page,

    Earlier in this thread it was discussed how a shifting mean, associated with something like warming global temperatures, leads to large changes at the extremes, increases the odds of extreme heat events. Just like much of the planet, Australia has warmed over the past decade culminating in 2019 as the hottest summer on record for New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, which was 1.35 °C above its previous record. South Australia and Tasmania had their second-hottest summers on record, and Queensland its third-hottest.
    You are using mean temperatures as a metric for extreme heat. That is not compatible.

    And it was discussed how your belief that that increasing means result in more extreme heat events is no guarantee, e.g. the US.

    In the past decade Australian heatwave records were broken in 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019 across a much larger area even though a some of smaller area of records still stand. Some might even call that a trend.
    Source?

    So while it true a lot of hot/cold pre-1950 records still stand, particularly in U.S. Midwest, the ratio of hot to cold records in the modern era are falling by 2 or 3 to 1 every year, that is hot/heatwave records are being broken at two to three times the rate as cold records are being set.
    Source?

    I can already tell you this is not correct for places we have long term records.

  21. #2746
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    Quote Originally Posted by SumJongGuy View Post
    WronG johnson doesn't really conveniently forget his out dated talking points have been debunked multiple times. He instead doubles and triples down claiming he proved the consensus wrong.
    You've been claiming this forever despite having never been able to point out any of my debunked talking points after many requests.

    I've largely been doubling and tripling down on the consensus to prove my points.

  22. #2747
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    You haven’t successfully proven a single point yet, but hey, even a blind squirrel...
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  23. #2748
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  24. #2749
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    I doubt if anyone cares but the last time increasing extreme/heavy rainfall came up, like so many other discussions ron continued asking the same inane questions over and over, made all the same accusations, ignored the previous discussion, ignored the literature, and ignored that heavy and extreme were treated as synonyms for 95th percentile events, and on and on...

    At the end end of day, a person acting in good faith would accept the mathematical definition, or try to learn what that means, and move on:

    Name:  95th percentile.png
Views: 64
Size:  25.5 KB



    From over two months ago:

    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson
    What is heavy precipitation defined as?


    From the abstract it doesn't appear this paper is doing any analysis of trends in extreme rainfall?
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse

    - The extreme precipitation events in the paper are defined as 95th percentile.

    -- The quoted text is from the paper itself. The paper connects increasing odds of extreme precipitation events with a "different physical regime" i.e. a changing climate. The paper is focused on how the, "characteristics of extreme events will change under ongoing climate change."

    --- You can read more about the Northeast United States component here: https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme...limate-change/

    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    I get that, but what are heavy precipitation events defined as? Or are you saying heavy is the same as extreme?

    Okay I guess, but I'm still not seeing much evidence that shows increasing trends in extreme rainfall events.
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse
    - I'm deferring to the scientific literature which defines extreme rainfall as something like two or three standard deviations outside the mean.

    -- I found extreme rainfall event papers specific for each region mentioned above and I provided a link for the Northeast United States component sourced from the National Climate Assessment (U.S. Global Change Research Program).

  25. #2750
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    Check mate because i said everyone else is wrong!
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

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