Ok, this global warming shit is getting out of hand...

[WMD]

What is RCP8.5? According to NOAA, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csl/assess...rojections.pdf

At the higher end of the range, the RCP8.5 scenario corresponds to a future where carbon dioxide and methane emissions continue to rise as a result of fossil fuel use, albeit with significant declines in emission growth rates over the second half of the century (Figure 4.1), significant reduction in aerosols, and modest improvements in energy intensity and technology.32 Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for RCP8.5 are similar to those of the SRES A1FI scenario: they rise from cur- rent-day levels of 400 up to 936 ppm by the end of this century. CO2-equivalent levels (includ- ing emissions of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other substances that affect climate) reach more than 1200 ppm by 2100, and global temperature is projected to increase by 5.4°–9.9°F (3°–5.5°C) by 2100 relative to the 1986–2005 average. RCP8.5 reflects the upper range of the open literature on emissions, but is not intended to serve as an upper limit on possible emissions nor as a business-as-usual or reference scenario for the other three scenarios.

It is not the worst case scenario or business-as-usual. It factors in improvements in energy intensity and technology.

[ron johnson]

What is RCP8.5? According to NOAA, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csl/assess...rojections.pdf



It is not the worst case scenario or business-as-usual. It factors in improvements in energy intensity and technology.

Sure, there are other worst case scenarios, like we could decide to increase coal burning by 20x, but since we know that's not going to happen why bother thinking about it? We know RCP8.5 isn't going to happen, so what point are you trying to make?

At least you have come around on RCP8.5 not being business as usual.

[ron johnson]

Globally 19 of the 20 overall warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the six hottest-ever years were 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Climate and temperature are affected by a lot of factors but there are no other factors such as El Niño, volcanoes, or periodic variations in solar activity (which is tiny relative to total solar output) that account for the long term increasing temperature trend other than greenhouse gases.

Temperature oscillates up and down from year-to-year due to those other factors but the bottom line is greenhouse gasses dominate the long term warming trend.

You have posted this a few times, and like I've said before, it's great hubris on your part to think that we can be so certain that there are no other factors contributing to the current warming other than greenhouse gasses with something as complex as climate. That is the dominate belief, but I could post hundreds of papers that suggest various natural factors are playing a bigger role than you give credit.

[WMD]

You have posted this a few times, and like I've said before, it's great hubris on your part to think that we can be so certain that there are no other factors contributing to the current warming other than greenhouse gasses with something as complex as climate. That is the dominate belief, but I could post hundreds of papers that suggest various natural factors are playing a bigger role than you give credit.

It is basic science and extremely well understood how much burning of fossil fuels contributes to global warming. So stop with this bullshit.

Your goal is to create doubt. There is none.

The earth’s temperature changes naturally over time. Variations in the planet’s orbit, solar cycles, and volcanic eruptions can all cause periods of warming or cooling.

But Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Georgia Tech, says none of these natural causes can explain the earth’s current warming trend.

Cobb: “What we see clearly is that the rate and the magnitude of current warming really dwarfs anything in this most recent geologic period.”

She says that the current concentration of global warming pollution in the atmosphere is the only factor that explains it.

Cobb: “We can use global climate models to understand what would be happening if greenhouse gases weren’t in the atmosphere. When we leave greenhouse gases out of the equation, we don’t get the warming that we’ve seen over the last several decades. When we put in those greenhouse gases, we do see this accelerated warming.”

She says the origin of all that global warming pollution is clear.

Cobb: “We can tell that that’s coming from fossil fuels by studying the composition and chemical signature of that gas in the atmosphere.”

So scientists are convinced by the evidence: today’s global warming is human-caused.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...natural-cycle/

[Angle Parking]

It is basic science and extremely well understood how much burning of fossil fuels contributes to global warming. So stop with this bullshit.

Your goal is to create doubt. There is none.

That sums it all up nicely.

[k2skier112]

rj, stfuyic

[ron johnson]

It is basic science and extremely well understood how much burning of fossil fuels contributes to global warming. So stop with this bullshit.

Your goal is to create doubt. There is none.




https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...natural-cycle/

Extremely well understood yet they can't even figure out the ECS of CO2? Extremely well understood yet all the doomsday scenarios depend on feedbacks for which they are just guessing?

When Cobb refers to the climate models to understand what is happening, are these the models she is referring to?

[WMD]

Blah, blah, blah
Bullshit bullshit bullshit

I'm glad to see Michael Mann, creator of the famed hockey stick graph was recently elected as a member of the National Academy of Sciences in honor of his outstanding contribution to science.

The National Academy of Sciences announced today the election of 120 members and 26 international members in recognition of their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research.

http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-mu...-election.html

[ron johnson]

I'm glad to see Michael Mann, creator of the famed hockey stick graph was recently elected as a member of the National Academy of Sciences in honor of his outstanding contribution to science.



http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-mu...-election.html

It ought to tell you something about the state of the scientific community. The guy shouldn't even have a job.

[WMD]

It ought to tell you something about the state of the scientific community. The guy shouldn't even have a job.

Damn you Ron, you made me laugh out loud again!

Yes, the anonymous poster on a ski forum thinks he knows more than the nation's best scientists. Hubris much?

[WMD]

Sure, there are other worst case scenarios, like we could decide to increase coal burning by 20x, but since we know that's not going to happen why bother thinking about it? We know RCP8.5 isn't going to happen, so what point are you trying to make?

Wait, you are admitting that burning fossil fuels causes global warming and climate change, and that burning more would lead to a worse outcome! So what are all your posts blathering on about?

[neufox47]

Since you are new to the thread, I don't think you have a firm grasp on what my positions are. How much warming is natural vs unnatural is not something I have argued about. My main point of contention with temperature is how much uncertainty about the human role there actually is. We are told there is a great consensus on this, but that is not the case - demonstrated by the fact that they can't even figure out the ECS of CO2. They estimate it to be between 1'C and 4.5'C.

If you want to read about the problems with the hockey stick:
https://climateaudit.files.wordpress...trick.2003.pdf
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2004GL021750



My big concern is that when the climate doomsday predictions don't come true, no one will ever listen to environmentalists again. I do care a lot about the environment and I think it's a shame that the environmental movement has been hijacked by CO2 phobia.



I don't see what is dumb about what Curry said. It seems quite reasonable to question why there had been a prolonged pause in warming despite a substantial CO2 increase during that period.

The problem with Davies is he presented a worst case scenario that was implausible to begin with, as the current path we are on. It's incredible irresponsible for someone who's job it is to know this stuff, to present this type of misinformation to the public.

If you and the republicans have your way RCP 8.5 will be reality. Not that crazy that the world would triple emissions in 80 years if carbon remains unregulated and we do not attempt to convert our economy to green energy.

[ron johnson]

Damn you Ron, you made me laugh out loud again!

Yes, the anonymous poster on a ski forum thinks he knows more than the nation's best scientists. Hubris much?

Like I said, it ought to tell you something about the state of "science". It's clear as day the guy is a fraud, highlighted by the fact that he has refused to release the data he used to make the hockey stick. Does that sound like science to you?

[ron johnson]

Wait, you are admitting that burning fossil fuels causes global warming and climate change, and that burning more would lead to a worse outcome! So what are all your posts blathering on about?

I was speaking from the POV of someone like yourself.

[ron johnson]

If you and the republicans have your way RCP 8.5 will be reality. Not that crazy that the world would triple emissions in 80 years if carbon remains unregulated and we do not attempt to convert our economy to green energy.

You could use a dose of reality. US carbon emissions aren't any higher than they were in 1990 and the US only accounts for 14% of total emissions, but somehow the republicans are going to make RCP 8.5 a reality? RCP 8.5 was considered outlandish at the time it was released, and now it's clear that it isn't going to happen: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51281986

[Self Jupiter]

[WMD]

Like I said, it ought to tell you something about the state of "science". It's clear as day the guy is a fraud, highlighted by the fact that he has refused to release the data he used to make the hockey stick. Does that sound like science to you?

Lies lies and bullshit.

You crack me up. I'm so glad you are here to save us from the mistakes of All of our scientists. Clearly you know more than they do. Thank you for your service Ron!

[WMD]

I was speaking from the POV of someone like yourself.

Are you sure you weren't being "sarcastic" Ron? Haha haha

[ron johnson]

Lies lies and bullshit.

You crack me up. I'm so glad you are here to save us from the mistakes of All of our scientists. Clearly you know more than they do. Thank you for your service Ron!

There is even a book featuring 100's of scientists disparaging Mann and his hockey stick:

"A Disgrace to the Profession"
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B013TZFRGE...ng=UTF8&btkr=1

[muted]

There is even a book featuring 100's of scientists disparaging Mann and his hockey stick:

"A Disgrace to the Profession"
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B013TZFRGE...ng=UTF8&btkr=1

From the book author yesterday "San Francisco has just ordered everyone to shelter in place, just to say, “Stay in your apartment. Don't leave your apartment unless you need to go out to a grocery store or to a pharmacy or to a doctor's.” Why are they doing that? Why is San Francisco the first to do that? Because they’ve got all the gay guys there. It's a big gay town, San Francisco, and they're the ones with all the compromised immune systems from all the protease inhibitors and all the other stuff. And they don't want all the gays dropping dead on the San Francisco mayor's watch. So that's why they've got all that sheltering in place there.

And even if it dropped, they all dropped dead on the San Francisco mayor's watch, if there was a big gay apocalypse, you know, the way this thing is going now, it would be Trump who would get blamed for it anyway. He'd be -- it would be his homophobia that would have struck down all these people in San Francisco. So that's why they've all been ordered to stay home. And it's not easy staying home. "

This guy seems totally legit, lemme waste some time and read his books!

Any other great reading recs, Ron? Or do you just read What Rush tells you?

[WMD]

There is even a book featuring 100's of scientists disparaging Mann and his hockey stick:

"A Disgrace to the Profession"
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B013TZFRGE...ng=UTF8&btkr=1

Ooh, there's a book. That proves it and proves the National Academy of Sciences is wrong. Damn, you're good. Whatever they are paying you is not enough.

[WMD]

From the book author yesterday "San Francisco has just ordered everyone to shelter in place, just to say, “Stay in your apartment. Don't leave your apartment unless you need to go out to a grocery store or to a pharmacy or to a doctor's.” Why are they doing that? Why is San Francisco the first to do that? Because they’ve got all the gay guys there. It's a big gay town, San Francisco, and they're the ones with all the compromised immune systems from all the protease inhibitors and all the other stuff. And they don't want all the gays dropping dead on the San Francisco mayor's watch. So that's why they've got all that sheltering in place there.

And even if it dropped, they all dropped dead on the San Francisco mayor's watch, if there was a big gay apocalypse, you know, the way this thing is going now, it would be Trump who would get blamed for it anyway. He'd be -- it would be his homophobia that would have struck down all these people in San Francisco. So that's why they've all been ordered to stay home. And it's not easy staying home. "

This guy seems totally legit, lemme waste some time and read his books!

Any other great reading recs, Ron? Or do you just read What Rush tells you?

Wow, he does seem legit! Thanks for letting us know about him Ron!

[ex-powderbroker]

Wow, it looks like this asshole is filling in for Rush while he’s taking the train upstate to see Kim Jong Un.

[ron johnson]

From the book author yesterday "San Francisco has just ordered everyone to shelter in place, just to say, “Stay in your apartment. Don't leave your apartment unless you need to go out to a grocery store or to a pharmacy or to a doctor's.” Why are they doing that? Why is San Francisco the first to do that? Because they’ve got all the gay guys there. It's a big gay town, San Francisco, and they're the ones with all the compromised immune systems from all the protease inhibitors and all the other stuff. And they don't want all the gays dropping dead on the San Francisco mayor's watch. So that's why they've got all that sheltering in place there.

And even if it dropped, they all dropped dead on the San Francisco mayor's watch, if there was a big gay apocalypse, you know, the way this thing is going now, it would be Trump who would get blamed for it anyway. He'd be -- it would be his homophobia that would have struck down all these people in San Francisco. So that's why they've all been ordered to stay home. And it's not easy staying home. "

This guy seems totally legit, lemme waste some time and read his books!

Any other great reading recs, Ron? Or do you just read What Rush tells you?

I haven't read the book and know nothing about the author, but surprisingly there might be some truth to that quote? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20Y3JS

[ron johnson]

Ooh, there's a book. That proves it and proves the National Academy of Sciences is wrong. Damn, you're good. Whatever they are paying you is not enough.

I linked the book because you accused me of lying. It's pretty unlikely a book is going to have a 4.5 star rating with 600+ reviews on amazon if it's all just lies like you claim.