Ok, this global warming shit is getting out of hand...

[MultiVerse]

As far as the heat wave "data", both graphs are unattributed, so no comment.

- Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record. But as was pointed out earlier in this thread in the 1930's it was warm in the United States, the Arctic, and parts of the Northern Hemisphere but globally temperatures were cooler than average for the 20th century.

So the trick they are playing is conflating U.S. temperatures and U.S. heatwaves with global temperatures and global heatwaves even though the U.S. is only something like 2 percent of the planet.


-- According to NOAA the last five years—from 2014 to 2018—are the warmest years globally ever recorded and it looks like 2019 will make the list too. The recent increase in record-breaking hot extremes is not just some statistical construct either, it is a historical fact.

Earlier in this thread Ron even tried to use outdated data to say the Arctic was warmer in the 1930s but according to NOAA the Arctic has been warmer for the past five years than at any other point since 1900 when records began.


-- The other trick they play is to ignore the hot daily lows. So even though there were hot daily highs in the U.S. in the 1930s the ratio between warm temperature and cold temperature has increasingly veered towards ever warmer temperatures. Without global warming the ratio between record highs and record lows should more or less even out. But that's not happening.

It's not intuitive but when a person thinks about it, record warm overnight temperatures are just as significant as record warm daytime temperatures. With that in mind this is what that looks like in the contiguous 48 States:



The previous decade had twice as many record highs as record lows, a 2:1 ratio. In the 21st century, the U.S. ratio of record high maximum to record low minimum temperatures is projected to go from about 20 to 1 by mid-century, to roughly 50 to 1 by the end of the century.

[SumJongGuy]

Ya but those higher lows make for warmer pool water... And warmer oceans.. OH FUCK!

[WMD]

Last night I had the great honor to meet former World Climate Research Programme director David Carlson. He was also former director of the World Meteorological Organization’s world climate research programme.

He is very concerned about hurricanes and everything else that is happening as our climate warms toward tipping points beyond which it becomes unstoppable.

He feels none of us are concerned enough, and the situation is worse than most non-scientists know.

He is becoming a climate activist as he sees that people are not taking this threat seriously enough. It is not too late to turn this around, but we need to cut emissions immediately.

I trust him just a bit more than RJ and BG and scougs and the rest of the deniers.

https://www.wcrp-climate.org/news/wc...arlson-resigns

[ron johnson]

- Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record. But as was pointed out earlier in this thread in the 1930's it was warm in the United States, the Arctic, and parts of the Northern Hemisphere but globally temperatures were cooler than average for the 20th century.

So the trick they are playing is conflating U.S. temperatures and U.S. heatwaves with global temperatures and global heatwaves even though the U.S. is only something like 2 percent of the planet.

I used the heatwave graphs to show the dishonesty of the NCA, not to conflate US heatwaves with global heatwaves. The IPCC finds medium confidence that heatwaves are increasing globally since the mid 1900's, but makes no assessment on trends that include the early 1900's:

"There has been a likely increasing trend in the frequency of heatwaves since the middle of the 20th century in Europe and Australia and across much of Asia where there are sufficient data. However, confidence on a global scale is medium owing to lack of studies over Africa and South America but also in part owing to dif-ferences in trends depending on how heatwaves are defined (Perkins et al., 2012). Using monthly means as a proxy for heatwaves Coumou et al. (2013) and Hansen et al. (2012) indicate that record-breaking temperatures in recent decades substantially exceed what would be expected by chance but caution is required when making inferences between these studies and those that deal with multi-day events and/or use more complex definitions for heatwave events. There is also evidence in some regions that periods prior to the 1950s had more heatwaves (e.g., over the USA, the decade of the 1930s stands out and is also associated with extreme drought conditions (Peterson et al., 2013) whereas conversely in other regions heatwave trends may have been underestimated owing to poor quality and/or consistency of data (e.g., Della-Marta et al. (2007a) over Western Europe; Kuglitsch et al. (2009, 2010) over the Mediterranean)."

Earlier in this thread Ron even tried to use outdated data to say the Arctic was warmer in the 1930s but according to NOAA the Arctic has been warmer for the past five years than at any other point since 1900 when records began.

I did not use outdated data. Your data for the Arctic came from CRUTEM4, mine came from HadCRUT4.

-- The other trick they play is to ignore the hot daily lows. So even though there were hot daily highs in the U.S. in the 1930s the ratio between warm temperature and cold temperature has increasingly veered towards ever warmer temperatures. Without global warming the ratio between record highs and record lows should more or less even out. But that's not happening.

We've been talking about heatwaves.

[MultiVerse]

- So to summarize the IPCC assessment of increasing heatwaves, apart from the U.S., heatwaves are likely increasing but they can't say so with high confidence because data is sparse or unreliable in some regions.

-- Either way, whether it's CRUTEM4 or HadCRUT4, the Arctic was not warmer in the 1930s.

--- BGnight's so called "fraud" claim used hot daily highs in the U.S. and ignored hot daily lows to imply it was warmer in the 1930s. Ron made a similar claim earlier in this thread WRT to Australia. The important takeaway, however, is average temperatures are rising.

---- Because average temperatures are rising, past record-breaking heat and heatwaves will likely fall away too, the way many records in other parts of the world already have, and become a distant memory as even hotter temperatures become the new norm.

----- If average temperatures continue rising long term then essentially by definition so to will the intensity and frequency of heatwaves and record-breaking heat.

[WMD]

I used the heatwave graphs to show the dishonesty of the NCA, not to conflate US heatwaves with global heatwaves.

Oh, BSL Ron. This is fucking hilarious. Do you know anything about the National Climate Assessment?

"The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a United States government interagency ongoing effort[1] on climate change science conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990.[2][3] The NCA is a major product[4] of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) which coordinates a team of experts and receives input from a Federal Advisory Committee. NCA research is integrated and summarized in the mandatory ongoing National Climate Assessment Reports. The reports are "extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences. For the Third National Climate Assessment, released in 2014, USGCRP coordinated hundreds of experts and received advice from a sixty-member Federal Advisory Committee. The Fourth NCA (NCA4) was released in two volumes, in October 2017 and in November 2018."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nati...ate_Assessment

[Ripzalot]

how many more lies are you guys going to fall for?

[Vt-Freeheel]

Not directed toward any single post.

[SumJongGuy]

how many more lies are you guys going to fall for?

I don't see anything that actual climate experts, NASA, or NOAA reported or predicted there. Take a lap, the adults are talking science here.

[Ripzalot]

I don't see anything that actual climate experts, NASA, or NOAA reported or predicted there. Take a lap, the adults are talking science here.

are greta and AOC climate experts then? take a lap beater.

[Ripzalot]

prophet of DOOM!

[schuss]

are greta and AOC climate experts then? take a lap beater.

Aren't you shitheads the only people repeatedly bringing them up?
Maybe try that helpline posted earlier?

[JongDoe]

Sorry but both theleftcantmeme and therightcantmeme exist on reddit. Too bad that there are 76k members on the right version and only 1.6k members on the left.

Tells me left are better than right at meme. Way better....

No worries. Bernie has a plan that addresses this inequality.

[SumJongGuy]

are greta and AOC climate experts then? take a lap beater.

I don't see anything that actual climate experts, NASA, or NOAA reported or predicted there. Take a lap, the adults are talking science here.

I know reading is difficult for you. So take another lap for posting shit that the grown ups already covered again.

[Ripzalot]

Aren't you shitheads the only people repeatedly bringing them up?
Maybe try that helpline posted earlier?

you're the one defending her idiocy. must be really important to march in lock step with the rest of the herd!

[Ripzalot]

I know reading is difficult for you. So take another lap for posting shit that the grown ups already covered again.

maybe it's your own failure to comprehend.

MASS EXTINCTION
ECOSYSTEMS ARE COLLAPSING
HOW DARE YOU

[Timberridge]

This could very well be the harbinger of end of time as foretold in the book of Revelation.

[SumJongGuy]

This could very well be the harbinger of end of time as foretold in the book of Revelation.

Donald Johann Drumpf... 666 in his ancestral German.. Fake christian that all the evangelicals fall head over heels for..

[Timberridge]

And is Ron Johnson a real or false prophet? If the latter, is he the false prophet sent by Satan to deceive the nations located at the four corners of the earth?

[SumJongGuy]

And is Ron Johnson a real or false prophet? If the latter, is he the false prophet sent by Satan to deceive the nations located at the four corners of the earth?

"Ghost of Prophets Past"..

[simple]

maybe it's your own failure to comprehend.

MASS EXTINCTION
ECOSYSTEMS ARE COLLAPSING
HOW DARE YOU

You could at least post a meme if you are going to be part of the right wing media hive mind

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, Ripzalot’s failed prediction argument is weak and facile.

If, for example, researchers identify an issue with sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides causing acidification in New England lakes and Congress passed a series of amendments to the Clean Air Act to mitigate pollution and then acid rain levels drop by 65%-to-70% is that a failed prediction or a success?

The same goes for depleted ozone in the stratosphere. If CFCs proved to be an exceptional problem for stratospheric ozone and CFCs were phased out, and it worked, is that a failed prediction or a success?

Agriculture is another example. Gloomy forecasts of overpopulation and mass hunger required a Green Revolution to prevent, is that a failed prediction or a success?

As far as outright bad predictions go it’s best to initially assume that people are usually wrong about their novel predictions. The emphasis is on novel predictions. The fact that people make novel predictions is how these things work. Science and technology is about building models, a hypothesis, in spite of incomplete information and then testing those models. Another way to think about it is models and technology are words that describes something that doesn’t work yet, because otherwise it just is the thing we now take for granted.

BGnight's “fraud” source and Ron’s Don Easterbrook both made novel predictions of imminent global cooling based on things like the Grand Solar Minimum, etc. and so far they turned out to be wrong. Whereas theories about greenhouse gasses leading to warming have held up even though older less sophisticated models still made bad predictions.

[SumJongGuy]

You could at least post a RUSSIAN TROLL GENERATED meme if you are going to be part of the right wing media hive mind

Fixed it for you. You're welcome!

[schuss]

He's right, I follow scientific fact and generally don't look kindly on people deriding children using vulgar and offensive language.

[ron johnson]

- So to summarize the IPCC assessment of increasing heatwaves, apart from the U.S., heatwaves are likely increasing but they can't say so with high confidence because data is sparse or unreliable in some regions.

Why are you trying to give a summary of the summary from the IPCC, but spinning it in a more suitable manner to yourself? They say that there is a likely increasing trend in heatwaves since the middle 20th century in Europe, Australia, and much of Asia. They have medium confidence that heatwaves are increasing on a global scale since the mid 20th century due to a lack of data in some regions. They make no attempt at deciphering heatwave trends starting prior to mid 20th century, but mention that there is evidence that some regions had more heatwaves during this time.

-- Either way, whether it's CRUTEM4 or HadCRUT4, the Arctic was not warmer in the 1930s.

If you use HadCRUT, the Arctic did experience years of comparable warmth (slightly warmer to slightly colder) in the 1930's as well as a year in the early 1960's.

--- BGnight's so called "fraud" claim used hot daily highs in the U.S. and ignored hot daily lows to imply it was warmer in the 1930s. Ron made a similar claim earlier in this thread WRT to Australia. The important takeaway, however, is average temperatures are rising.

No, he posted the same NCA heatwave graphic that I did, which ignores the data pre 1960 to make it look like heatwaves are continuing to to trend worse every decade in the US.

It's funny how much you care about the higher low temperatures. I'm sure the last thing on anyone's global warming concerns list is going to be higher low temperatures. You could say global warming has caused US temperatures to become less extreme. Less hot days, less cold nights.

---- Because average temperatures are rising, past record-breaking heat and heatwaves will likely fall away too, the way many records in other parts of the world already have, and become a distant memory as even hotter temperatures become the new norm.

----- If average temperatures continue rising long term then essentially by definition so to will the intensity and frequency of heatwaves and record-breaking heat.

Not if your low temperatures keep increasing, but maximum temperatures don't. And who knows what effect the coming Grand Solar Minimum will have.