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09-15-2019, 10:01 AM #1476Banned
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You seem to think that I'm implying that Greenland hasn't been losing ice in recent decades. I'm not. I only posted about this in response to WMD's article about Al Roker just getting back from Greenland and being "horrified by what he saw there," with "glaciers vanishing at an astonishing rate."
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09-15-2019, 10:17 AM #1477Banned
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All I am saying is that looking at proxy records combined with recent instrumental records to compare recent and past warming rates and spatial warming has data issues. Any conclusions based on this methodology should be questioned. The authors of the paper say as much: "Unfortunately, limitations inherent in the proxies themselves probably still hamper our ability to compare warm or cool intervals with each other throughout the entire Common Era. Tree-ring records, the most frequently used proxy archive in the PAGES 2k database, are sometimes unreliable in registering slow climate changes over several centuries or longer. Moreover, some other proxies — particularly records from marine and lake sediments — exaggerate variations at multidecadal or centennial timescales. It is still an open question how well we can compare global temperatures across this entire 2,000-year span."
A better methodology would be to use the same proxies for current and past temperatures, but if they do that, they aren't able to find that the recent warming rate is unprecedented for the past 2,000 years, or that the globe is warming synchronously for the first time.
The incentives for renewable technology growth are already immense. There is significant investment in this field. Whoever can figure out cost effective storage stands to make massive amounts of money. What I am not in favor of is government forcing costly and less effective energy systems on society. That is a certainty for failure and will do nothing to up-heave the financial status quo. It will do the opposite.
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09-15-2019, 10:20 AM #1478Banned
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When I see this quote from their paper, "Unfortunately, limitations inherent in the proxies themselves probably still hamper our ability to compare warm or cool intervals with each other throughout the entire Common Era." And then I see the conclusions you are quoting, that tells me these scientists have an agenda.
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09-15-2019, 10:24 AM #1479Banned
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MV and I are arguing about is whether the recent warming rate is unprecedented for the past 2,000 years, and whether this is the only time of the past 2,000 years where temperatures are warming synchronously across the globe. It has nothing to do with disproving the theory of climate change.
I do not disprove the theory of climate change. I do disprove that there is a consensus on how much warming humans are responsible for and whether it is dangerous.
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09-15-2019, 10:32 AM #1480
You inconsistently enumerate support and denial.
For example, you, as many respected climate scientists do, point out that the claim that the current series of hurricanes and their severity is a result of climate change is bogus. I'd agree that there's not enough data to make that assertion, but some "alarmists" do. To encapsulate, weather is not climate change.
Then at the same time, you cite the effect of storm Nicole adding enough snow to Greenland to abate the ablation for a year or two. In this case, you're claiming weather as proof that climate change doesn't happen.
These are inconsistent principles.
This is only part of why I think your arguments and movement of goalposts are bogus.Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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09-15-2019, 10:35 AM #1481
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09-15-2019, 10:38 AM #1482
Yet another misrepresentation from Ron.
Ron's quote, which is a review of the research, not the research itself, discusses issues with the proxies but does not invalidate the proxies. The review goes on to say, "We can be more certain of how and why Earth warms or cools over decadal and multidecadal timescales ... In general, physics-based climate models accurately reproduce proxy estimates of our climate’s history over the past millennium."
Ron's cargo cult take that it's thermometers and not greenhouse gasses is his own, and his alone.
To quote the paper itself:
To place recent warming rates into a long-term context, we calculate 51 yr running GMST trends from the unfiltered reconstructions. The different reconstruction methods agree on the magnitudes of multidecadal trends over the Common Era, as shown by the narrow uncertainty range.
In other words, there is uncertainty but the range of uncertainty is narrow. And Ron's review of the paper says physics-based climate models, apart from the two largest volcanic eruptions of the Common Era, accurately reproduce proxy estimates.
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09-15-2019, 02:11 PM #1483
"Editorial: Climate change is already here. 2020 could be your last chance to stop an apocalypse"
The world is drifting steadily toward a climate catastrophe. For many of us, that’s been clear for a few years or maybe a decade or even a few decades.
But others have known that a reckoning was coming for much longer. A Swedish scientist first calculated in 1896 that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere could lead to warmer global temperatures. By the 1930s, scientists were measuring the increase, and in the late 1960s, they had documented the impact of melting ice in Antarctica. By 1977, Exxon-Mobil had recognized its own role in the warming of the ocean, the polar ice melt and the rising sea level. . .
But today, we are at an important turning point. The changing climate is no longer an abstract threat lurking in our distant future — it is upon us. We feel it. We see it. In our longer and deeper droughts and our more brutal hurricanes and raging, hyper-destructive wildfires. And with that comes a new urgency, and a new opportunity, to act.
Climate change is now simply impossible to ignore. The temperature reached a record-breaking 90 degrees in Anchorage this summer and an unprecedented 108 degrees in Paris. We can watch glaciers melting and collapsing on the web; ice losses in Antarctica have tripled since 2012 so that sea levels are rising faster today than at any time in the last quarter-century. Human migration patterns are already changing in Africa and Latin America as extreme weather events disrupt crop patterns, harm harvests and force farmers off their land, sending climate refugees to Europe and the United State
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09-15-2019, 02:56 PM #1484
^^^ Enough of that "alarmist" bunk. Here's the real deal of when the time to act will be here..
Climate Change Deniers Present Graphic Description Of What Earth Must Look Like For Them To BelieveGo that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!
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09-15-2019, 05:21 PM #1485Banned
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09-15-2019, 05:42 PM #1486
It must suck to be Ron right now. For years the media didn't cover climate but now it is everywhere. It is pretty lonely to be a denier these days.
Time Magazine is devoting their entire issue this week to the climate crisis.
Millions of people will walk out of work and school as part of over 2500 events in over 170 countries to strike for climate action on September 20th.
Poor lonely RJ. Expect the lies and obfuscation to get louder as he realizes people have caught on to denier bullshit.
In the week leading up to the next big UN climate meeting in New York next month, media around the world will focus on the world's biggest issue, the existential challenges of climate change. Newsroom has joined the global effort.
More than 170 news outlets from around the world with a combined audience of hundreds of millions of people have now signed up for Covering Climate Now, a project co-founded by CJR and The Nation aimed at strengthening the media’s focus on the climate crisis.
All outlets have committed to running a week’s worth of climate coverage in the lead-up to the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York on September 23. At that meeting, the world’s governments will submit plans to meet the Paris Agreement’s pledge to keep global temperature rise “well below” 2 degrees Celsius.
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09-15-2019, 05:48 PM #1487Banned
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I'm starting to think that you are missing the fact that we are talking about yearly warming rates and global synchronous warming. I'm not saying that proxy data is useless, and no conclusions can be drawn for it. What I am saying, is that trying to determine the warming rate globally for the year 1050 compared to the years 999-1049 is problematic because proxy records lack precision. This type of measurement requires excellent data. Determining the warming rate of year 2000 compared to 1949-1999 is much more feasible due to the precision of the instrumental record. Any overarching statements from this type of analysis deserves skepticism. The reviewers of the paper would not disagree with me.
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09-15-2019, 05:50 PM #1488
They quote one of our local representatives in this article. A bunch of solid Iowa stuff.
https://time.com/5669023/iowa-farmers-climate-policy/
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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09-15-2019, 06:13 PM #1489Banned
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My mistake, the quote is from the reviewers, which doesn't make much of a difference anyway.
I guess I should be clear in saying that I am not invalidating the research because of the proxy issue. I am saying that their conclusions deserve skepticism. Making statements like "This is the fastest the earth has ever warmed in the past 2,000 years," and "the earth has never warmed synchronously like this before," are a bit too hubristic to make given these methodological issues.
I see quotes like this one: "Unfortunately, limitations inherent in the proxies themselves probably still hamper our ability to compare warm or cool intervals with each other throughout the entire Common Era. Tree-ring records, the most frequently used proxy archive in the PAGES 2k database, are sometimes unreliable in registering slow climate changes over several centuries or longer. Moreover, some other proxies — particularly records from marine and lake sediments — exaggerate variations at multidecadal or centennial timescales. It is still an open question how well we can compare global temperatures across this entire 2,000-year span."
Compared to this quote: "Today’s climate stands apart in its torrid global synchrony."
And I can't help but feel like things smell a little fishy.
"We can be more certain of how and why Earth warms or cools over decadal and multidecadal timescales ... In general, physics-based climate models accurately reproduce proxy estimates of our climate’s history over the past millennium."
To place recent warming rates into a long-term context, we calculate 51 yr running GMST trends from the unfiltered reconstructions. The different reconstruction methods agree on the magnitudes of multidecadal trends over the Common Era, as shown by the narrow uncertainty range.
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09-15-2019, 06:33 PM #1490
The fishy smell is all of the dead fish from warming waters, you dimwit
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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09-15-2019, 06:51 PM #1491
You're using the usual ploy of claiming the data is invalid.
And then trying to say that's not what you're saying and then saying it again.
I don't think you understand what you're saying.
Plus you keep citing anomalies as proof that trends don't exist but only when it supports your claims.Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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09-15-2019, 07:10 PM #1492
RJ has to be a tRump supporter, because there are only 2 kinds of tRump supporters left...
Morons, and Fucking Morons, because RJ is a Fucking Moron
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09-15-2019, 07:46 PM #1493
- It makes a difference because your accusations of the researchers pushing an agenda are unfounded. Once again you default to impugning the scientific community. The paper itself focuses on the results and the results are what they are.
-- The models didn't have a great track record but the models have come a long way since then.
--- You are wrong about the so called methodological issues. When comparing proxy data, today’s climate does stands apart in its torrid global synchrony. I've explained this several times already but you don't seem to understand that the instrument data on the charts is there for reference. The researchers are using proxies for current and past temperatures. It's a comparison across space and time of the proxy data.
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09-15-2019, 08:54 PM #1494
Funny thing is with the attention to climate these days I bet even Trump will come around and push an industry backed carbon tax before the election to show he is doing something on this issue. It will be an awful bill that removes regulations while putting too low a price on carbon to accomplish anything, but it will be a move to show even Trump and the GOP are on board with doing something on climate with hopes to not lose farmers and others who see climate change is real.
Will Ron go along or will he be all alone denying the reality of AGW and making up shit to say we don't need to do anything?
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09-15-2019, 09:31 PM #1495Registered User
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The farmers in Middle America don't agree with you. Saying we have no consensus on how dangerous AGW is for society is like saying we have no consensus whatsoever on whether it's appropriate to strip immigrant children from their families and incarcerate them. Sure, some jackasses insist it's not a problem -- that doesn't mean it's not a problem.
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09-15-2019, 09:32 PM #1496Registered User
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09-15-2019, 10:16 PM #1497
You're not wrong about Ron inconsistently enumerating support and denial but in this instance he’s saying researchers shouldn’t make sweeping claims when, “proxy records [are] combined with recent instrumental.”
But that’s not what’s happening. The studies are a comparison across space and time of the proxy data. In fact his own source from the previous couple of pages says as much, “the authors’ analysis does not encompass the continued warming in the early twenty-first century, because many of their proxy records were collected more than two decades ago.”
Background on the studies:
In contrast to pre-industrial climate fluctuations, current, anthropogenic climate change is occurring across the whole world at the same time. In addition, the speed of global warming is higher than it has been in at least 2,000 years. That’s according two of the studies, along with several more supporting studies, Ron and I are discussing.
Recent findings based on 700 climate records in an open-access database show past warming and cooling was not uniform across time and space for the planet. Climate fluctuations in the past varied from region to region. Just a few short years ago, though, a lot of climate history focused on Europe and North America or sometimes the Northern Hemisphere giving the false impression that pre-industrial climate was globally synchronous.
But it has now been shown that this was not the case. It looks like regional climates in pre-industrial times were primarily influenced by random fluctuations within the climate systems themselves.
The results look very different for recent history. The warmest period of the last 2,000 years was most likely in the 20th century. This was the case for more than 98% of the surface of the earth. This indicates modern climate change cannot be explained by random fluctuations, but by anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. What we didn’t know until now is that not only average global temperatures in the 20th century are higher than ever before in at least 2,000 years, but also that a warming period is now affecting the whole planet at the same time for the first time. And the speed of global warming has never been as high as it is today.
Source: https://www.unibe.ch/news/media_news...index_eng.html
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09-15-2019, 10:21 PM #1498
Hopefully all of the denialist die off first.
That would be a good first step.Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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09-15-2019, 11:38 PM #1499Banned
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09-16-2019, 05:22 AM #1500
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