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11-30-2019, 05:54 PM #2676Banned
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11-30-2019, 05:57 PM #2677Banned
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11-30-2019, 06:00 PM #2678
why are you guys even engaging with this gigantic fucking JONG??
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11-30-2019, 06:26 PM #2679
Because I'm banging his imaginary wife, duh
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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11-30-2019, 06:42 PM #2680
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11-30-2019, 06:51 PM #2681Your initial assessment wasn't wrong because ron's tactics are an insult, too. Among the more insidious games ron plays is feigning ignorance about previously discussed topics.I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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11-30-2019, 07:16 PM #2682
Diamond Joe is right but on the off chance anyone cares the the studies discussed earlier in this thread on 95th percentile extreme/heavy/etc., rainfall events are now part of the 2018 IPCC consensus:
So contrary to ron's false accusations of cherry picking and ignoring the consensus, the IPCC's 2018 Report on Global Warming says "It is likely that there have been statistically significant increases in the number of heavy precipitation events (e.g., 95th percentile) in more regions than there have been statistically significant decreases, but there are strong regional and subregional variations in the trends" where per the earlier discussion heavy, extreme, and several other synonyms for outlier 95th percentile rainfall events were all discussed at length earlier in this thread.
The study describing how climate change is exacerbating extreme heat events as well as droughts, all part of a long term pattern change in Australia is linked on page 107 in post #2652.
And FWIW the two examples above were just two recent examples of ron's tactics. Anyone paying attention to this thread knows ron tries poison the well by among other things asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, without engaging in good faith.
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11-30-2019, 07:33 PM #2683
As an addendum to the previous page,
Earlier in this thread it was discussed how a shifting mean, associated with something like warming global temperatures, leads to large changes at the extremes, increases the odds of extreme heat events. Just like much of the planet, Australia has warmed over the past decade culminating in 2019 as the hottest summer on record for New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, which was 1.35 °C above its previous record. South Australia and Tasmania had their second-hottest summers on record, and Queensland its third-hottest.
In the past decade Australian heatwave records were broken in 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019 across a much larger area even though a some of smaller area of records still stand. Some might even call that a trend.
So while it true a lot of hot/cold pre-1950 records still stand, particularly in U.S. Midwest, the ratio of hot to cold records in the modern era are falling by 2 or 3 to 1 every year, that is hot/heatwave records are being broken at two to three times the rate as cold records are being set.
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11-30-2019, 07:56 PM #2684
WronG johnson doesn't really conveniently forget his out dated talking points have been debunked multiple times. He instead doubles and triples down claiming he proved the consensus wrong.
Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!
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11-30-2019, 08:34 PM #2685Banned
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Link me to where heavy is a synonym of extreme. I've never seen a climate headline about heavy precipitation.
The study describing how climate change is exacerbating extreme heat events as well as droughts, all part of a long term pattern change in Australia is linked on page 107 in post #2652.
Even if we accept that drought to be the result of CO2, what does it even matter if drought isn't increasing in Australia or the world?
And FWIW the two examples above were just two recent examples of ron's tactics. Anyone paying attention to this thread knows ron tries poison the well by among other things asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, without engaging in good faith.
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11-30-2019, 08:38 PM #2686
My accusation of you probably being an incel is correct, though...
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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11-30-2019, 08:45 PM #2687Banned
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You are using mean temperatures as a metric for extreme heat. That is not compatible.
And it was discussed how your belief that that increasing means result in more extreme heat events is no guarantee, e.g. the US.
In the past decade Australian heatwave records were broken in 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019 across a much larger area even though a some of smaller area of records still stand. Some might even call that a trend.
So while it true a lot of hot/cold pre-1950 records still stand, particularly in U.S. Midwest, the ratio of hot to cold records in the modern era are falling by 2 or 3 to 1 every year, that is hot/heatwave records are being broken at two to three times the rate as cold records are being set.
I can already tell you this is not correct for places we have long term records.
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11-30-2019, 08:49 PM #2688Banned
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11-30-2019, 08:54 PM #2689
You haven’t successfully proven a single point yet, but hey, even a blind squirrel...
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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11-30-2019, 09:38 PM #2690Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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11-30-2019, 10:19 PM #2691
I doubt if anyone cares but the last time increasing extreme/heavy rainfall came up, like so many other discussions ron continued asking the same inane questions over and over, made all the same accusations, ignored the previous discussion, ignored the literature, and ignored that heavy and extreme were treated as synonyms for 95th percentile events, and on and on...
At the end end of day, a person acting in good faith would accept the mathematical definition, or try to learn what that means, and move on:
From over two months ago:
Originally Posted by ron johnsonOriginally Posted by MultiVerse
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
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11-30-2019, 10:21 PM #2692
Check mate because i said everyone else is wrong!Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!
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11-30-2019, 10:22 PM #2693
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11-30-2019, 10:36 PM #2694Banned
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11-30-2019, 10:38 PM #2695Banned
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It's a sad state for climate science when even a 16 year old can debunk their garbage: https://chrismartzweather.com/2019/1...tic-outbreaks/
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11-30-2019, 10:45 PM #2696Banned
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11-30-2019, 10:47 PM #2697Banned
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11-30-2019, 10:56 PM #2698
FWIW, and apart from ron since this is essentially the same discussion as last time and if he wants to rehash it he can look it up himself: even though there was an unbelievable number of record daily highs set in the U.S. in the 1930s the ratio between warm temperature and cold temperature has increasingly veered towards ever warmer temperatures. Without global warming the ratio between record highs and record lows should more or less even out. But that's not happening.
Even though many of the 1930s dust bowl records still stand, the United States has seen roughly two record highs for every record low over the last few decades. Observed annual U.S. record high maximum compared to record low minimum daily temperatures shows that the ratio of about 2 to 1 through the 2000s are just the transient values of a ratio that has been increasing with mean annual temperature over the U.S. since the late1970s. Since 2010, and going back as far as 1895, an even geographic distribution of 60 cities show U.S. daily record highs outnumber lows 5 to 1.
Sources:
Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. (Meehl 2009)
https://weather.com/news/climate/new...ce-record-lows
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/us...-lows-5-1-2010
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11-30-2019, 11:29 PM #2699Banned
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We have well established that nights have been less cool than in the past, resulting in higher mean temperatures, so this is not unexpected. This is not proof of more extreme heat in the US since very few state record highs have been set in the 21st century, and we know heat waves were much worse pre 1950.
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12-01-2019, 12:21 AM #2700
If by "we" ron means that like so many other discussions ron continued poisoning the well by asking the same questions over and over without caring about the answers, ignored the previous discussion, ignored the literature, and on and on for page after page... then yeah "we" have established "that nights have been less cool than in the past, resulting in higher mean temperatures":
Originally Posted by ron johnson
Originally Posted by SumJongGuy
Originally Posted by dan_pdxOriginally Posted by ron johnson
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