Page 37 of 146 FirstFirst ... 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 ... LastLast
Results 901 to 925 of 3644
  1. #901
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Fucking Chuck Todd. What a dork.

  2. #902
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    In Your Wife
    Posts
    8,291
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Fucking Chuck Todd. What a dork.
    Television news worth watching died the day Tim Russert did.

    I wish he was around to comment on the current state of affairs.

  3. #903
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    22,070
    I did not see what sleepy Chuck Todd said to get Benny riled. If he commented that Dorian is being enhanced by extremely warm ocean water and that water is warmer because of climate change, aside from Ron does anyone else disagree with that?
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  4. #904
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    23,115
    The number of category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes seems to be increasing. Warm water strengthens hurricanes. The water in the Caribbean is getting warmer. But if you don't like it Benny you can turn off the TV, go into your room, and work on your Asian accent.

  5. #905
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by Not bunion View Post
    I did not see what sleepy Chuck Todd said to get Benny riled. If he commented that Dorian is being enhanced by extremely warm ocean water and that water is warmer because of climate change, aside from Ron does anyone else disagree with that?
    He opened his stupid show with an image of this storm loudly saying something over that stupid music that, omg, there's a hurricaine heading for Florida and the Amazon is burning! I'm not, heh heh, saying the two are connected, but, you know, maybe they are! We'll have self appointed experts blathering about this, but first, a word from our sponsors, Lexus and Shell.
    You know, it's like Russia beat Hillary. Over and over.

    As far as hurricaines gaining in intensity, where are the stats on that? You know, going back more than 60 years. I'll tell you. There are none. And what's 60 years in the history of storms?

  6. #906
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    33,546
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    We'll have self appointed experts blathering
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  7. #907
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    22,070
    As far as hurricaines gaining in intensity, where are the stats on that? You know, going back more than 60 years. I'll tell you. There are none. And what's 60 years in the history of storms?
    Perhaps if you a had some training in Atmospheric Physics. I do not but I do understand the basics.

    https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-war...nd-hurricanes/

    study up.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  8. #908
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Dude, Florida has actually been fairly hurricane free in the past sixty years. Last big one to hit the east coast was in 92. That's a problem. There's millions of new residents who have moved into harm's way. Same all up and down the entire East coast of America. Climate change isn't the issue, it's millions and millions of people who now live in very dangerous places, places that had zero to very little population at the turn of the 20th century.

  9. #909
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by Not bunion View Post
    Perhaps if you a had some training in Atmospheric Physics. I do not but I do understand the basics.

    https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-war...nd-hurricanes/

    study up.
    That's predicting the future. Nobody has ever been able to do that.

  10. #910
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    22,070
    Yeah, nobody has ever been able to predict weather. Evar............
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  11. #911
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Well, how many times have incoming storms to your mountain never happened or just straggled in with an inch or two?

  12. #912
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    23,115
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Dude, Florida has actually been fairly hurricane free in the past sixty years. Last big one to hit the east coast was in 92. That's a problem. There's millions of new residents who have moved into harm's way. Same all up and down the entire East coast of America. Climate change isn't the issue, it's millions and millions of people who now live in very dangerous places, places that had zero to very little population at the turn of the 20th century.
    7 and a half billion people live in very dangerous places. Look it up.

  13. #913
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    22,070
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Well, how many times have incoming storms to your mountain never happened or just straggled in with an inch or two?
    You just described my mountain to a tee. ALL THE FUCKING TIME..... duh.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  14. #914
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Wyoming
    Posts
    1,624
    "How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous ---Stronger wind speeds, more rain, and worsened storm surge add up to more potential destruction."

    Major hurricanes are by far the world’s costliest natural weather disasters, in some cases causing well over $100 billion in damage. There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive. The latest research shows the trend is likely to continue as long as the climate continues to warm.
    https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...ore-dangerous/

  15. #915
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Last Best City in the Last Best Place
    Posts
    7,272
    Quote Originally Posted by Not bunion View Post
    You just described my mountain to a tee. ALL THE FUCKING TIME..... duh.
    NOAA Big Sky recurring forecast

    Four days out: 6-8 inches of accumulation expected.
    Three days out: 4-6 inches of accumulation expected.
    Two days out: 2-3 inches of accumulation expected.
    Night before: Less than an inch of accumulation expected.

  16. #916
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    slc
    Posts
    17,891
    Predicting localized snowfall is totally the same thing as predicting the long-term average frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Western Atlantic.

  17. #917
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    The Bull City
    Posts
    14,003
    Quote Originally Posted by WMD View Post
    "How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous ---Stronger wind speeds, more rain, and worsened storm surge add up to more potential destruction."



    https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...ore-dangerous/
    That and the regular thunderstorms have already been dumping way higher rain totals in to waterways than previous years so shit's all loaded up already. maybe even already flooded before the big one coming in from offshore hits.
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  18. #918
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    in a box on the porch
    Posts
    5,215
    I want to name the storms, bitch would be a go one.

  19. #919
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    In the swamp
    Posts
    11,124
    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    NOAA Big Sky recurring forecast

    Four days out: 6-8 inches of accumulation expected.
    Three days out: 4-6 inches of accumulation expected.
    Two days out: 2-3 inches of accumulation expected.
    Night before: Less than an inch of accumulation expected.
    That sounds like a typical Joel Gratz forecast.

  20. #920
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,539
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Well, how many times have incoming storms to your mountain never happened or just straggled in with an inch or two?
    Ever since I first learned about confirmation bias I've been seeing it everywhere.

    How many times does the forecast call for 94 degrees and sunny, and instead there was a blizzard with twelve inches of snow?

    Modern weather forecasting is amazing. The key is understanding that a forecast is a statistical prediction of a dynamic system and not an absolute precise prediction.

    If a forecast says there’s a 20 percent chance of snow tomorrow, one way to think about that is that in 20 percent of the statistical weather models, a snow storm developed, and in the other 80 percent—based a few variations in initial conditions—it fizzled.

  21. #921
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    23,115
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Ever since I first learned about confirmation bias I've been seeing it everywhere.

    How many times does the forecast call for 94 degrees and sunny, and instead there was a blizzard with twelve inches of snow?

    Modern weather forecasting is amazing. The key is understanding that a forecast is a statistical prediction of a dynamic system and not an absolute precise prediction.

    If a forecast says there’s a 20 percent chance of snow tomorrow, one way to think about that is that in 20 percent of the statistical weather models, a storm developed, and in the other 80 percent—based a few variations in initial conditions—it did not.
    A NPS ranger explained to me, in the context of rain leading to flash flooding in the Virgin Narrows, that a 20% chance of rain meant that it would rain in 20% of the forecast area. Whether that applies to other forecasts in other locations I don't know.

  22. #922
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    821
    ^that sounds like the ranger was misinterpreting the forecast

  23. #923
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    821
    Aaaannnddd just checked. The ranger was right, I was wrong! Huh.

    PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation (greater than or equal to 0.01"), if it occurs at all.

  24. #924
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    2 hours from anything
    Posts
    10,734
    There are few better indicators of general ignorance and / or stupidity than those who bitch about weather forecasts not being 100% accurate or saying, “it’s the only job where you can be wrong X percent of the time and still keep your job”, “they can’t tell us if it’s going to rain Tuesday but they want to tell us what the weather will be in 80 years”

    Modern weather forecasts are amazing. I challenge anyone to predict the weather without using models and compare your accuracy to the professionals.

  25. #925
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,539
    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    A NPS ranger explained to me, in the context of rain leading to flash flooding in the Virgin Narrows, that a 20% chance of rain meant that it would rain in 20% of the forecast area. Whether that applies to other forecasts in other locations I don't know.
    Yeah, according to NWFlow's formula the ranger is sort of right but they are probably framing it that way for safety. Better for the ranger to say if there's a chance of rain then it will rain somewhere in the vicinity so watch out for flash flooding rather than saying the forecast is a combination of the chance of precipitation combined with the percent area in which the precipitation might occur.

    FWIW, improved weather forecasts means things like fewer people caught in flash floods and lower odds of being struck by lightning.

    Sort of related, around thirty years ago Hurricane forecasts three days out from landfall used to have something like a 350 mile predicted radius which is a circle big enough to contain Houston and Tallahassee on its circumference but the radius is much smaller now, about a hundred miles.
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 08-30-2019 at 02:11 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •