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  1. #2651
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Saying you proved something doesn't make it so. It just makes you arrogant (or President of the United States). It is up to the reader to decide if you proved something, not the writer. That's how science works, but I realize that's not something you know anything about.
    Yeah, Ron either lies about or misrepresents the facts. Because according to the data there has been an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, heat waves have increased in frequency in Europe and Australia and across much of Asia, and climate change has exacerbated wildfires.

  2. #2652
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    Its an example of close allies and non allies, who spy on each other, who have things called armies, and who look out for their own interests, forming an intergovernmental union. What kind of global gov't did you expect? One day everyone would decide to unite under a single leader? If it were to happen its going to be a continuing process like the EU.
    Pretzel Logic tastes like...Pretzels
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  3. #2653
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    It’s happening, part 3

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...limate-change/

    Ron is going to say that fish aren’t actually dying.
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    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  5. #2655
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    To recap just some of the things that have been factually argued here based on scientific evidence:

    - Current warming is unnatural and likely human caused
    How much warming is human caused vs natural is unknown.

    - There has been a steep decades long decline in thick Arctic ice. Even though the Arctic sea ice extent appears to be only slowly trending downwards in recent years the proportions of what was once thick perennial ice has changed in favor of the thin seasonal ice
    No decrease in sea ice extent since 2006. Also worth noting we only have satellite data since the 1970's, but there is research that finds less sea ice than today from the 1930's to 50's.

    - There has been a likely increasing trend in the frequency of heatwaves in Europe and Australia and across much of Asia
    MV is a cherry picker so he picks out Europe and Asia. Australia only works if he cherry picks post 1950.

    - There's been increasing percentage of Category 4 & 5 hurricanes. And, for Atlantic islanders and East Coasters all measures of Atlantic hurricane activity show a significant increase in recent decades

    - Hurricane intensity has also increased significantly in the West Pacific
    Here is a recent article summarizing hurricanes saying exactly what I have been saying about hurricanes in this thread: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpi.../#29f465cc551f

    Yes, there has been an increasing percentage of Cat 4/5 hurricanes. No, Atlantic hurricane activity doesn't show a significant increase in recent decades.

    MV is a cherry picker so he picks out the West Pacific, but what does it matter if there are other regions, such as the Bay of Bengal with less hurricane activity? The IPCC concludes: "There is consequently low confidence in the conclusion that the number of very intense cyclones is increasing globally."
    - Anthropogenic forcing has led to different physical regime of extreme precipitation for the Eurasian wave train and the Indian summer monsoon and another that propagates across the tropical Atlantic Ocean before turning northwards, towards the Caribbean and the eastern coast of North America
    MV is a cherry picker so he found a study made that conclusion and ran with it.

    IPCC says this on precipitation in monsoon regions: "There is, in particular, low confidence regarding observed trends in precipitation in monsoon regions, according to the SREX report and AR5, as well as more recent publications."

    - According to NASA, since the 1980s, a hotter, drier world means the wildfire season has lengthened across a quarter of the world's vegetated surface, and in some places like California, fire has become nearly a year-round risk

    - The year 2018 was California's worst wildfire season on record, on the heels of a devastating 2017 fire season. The 2019 wildfire season in California so far has seen over 6,402 fires. Also in 2019, wildfires have burned 2.5 million acres in Alaska in an extreme fire season driven by high temperatures, which have also led to massive fires in Siberia.
    Once again, MV must be cherry picking his start date post 1950 or using damages as a metric to make the conclusion that 2018 was California's worst wildfire season on record.

    It's also funny that you cherry pick Alaska despite 2019 being a low fire season in the US.

  6. #2656
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Yeah, Ron either lies about or misrepresents the facts. Because according to the data there has been an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, heat waves have increased in frequency in Europe and Australia and across much of Asia, and climate change has exacerbated wildfires.
    No, I don't lie or misrepresent the facts. That is what you do. You are a cherry picker. There isn't an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, heatwaves increased in Australia only if you cherry pick a post 1950 start date, and we don't have evidence of wildfires worsening, so its hard to say global warming has exacerbated wildfires.

  7. #2657
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Pretzel Logic tastes like...Pretzels
    Nothing pretzel about it. You tried to claim global government is an impossibility because, "Even the closest of allies spy on earth other, and look out for their own interests first and foremost. They even have things called armies. How in the fuck is there ever going to be much agreement, especially now that we are seeing wars for water, and displacement of environmental refugees?"

    And I provide the example of the EU, which includes some countries that were involved in the two worst wars in history just last century, forming an intergovernmental union.

  8. #2658
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    It’s happening, part 3

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...limate-change/

    Ron is going to say that fish aren’t actually dying.
    We know the WP is a propaganda rag, so it should be a little concerning that they pay little more than lip service to the greatest factor in declining fish stocks in the ocean - overfishing. Then this snippet is enlightening:

    Mathieu Rouault, an ocean scientist at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, doesn’t doubt the recent warming trend near Tombwa. But he emphasizes that natural ocean cycles, which deliver occasional pulses of warm tropical water to the area called Benguela Niños, are also crucial to understanding what’s happening.

    For instance, temperatures here were warmer in the 1960s than during the cool 1980s, when the current sharp warming trend began. This suggests that temperatures were driven by natural variability, rather than showing a clear upward trend. But over a longer period, since 1880, NOAA data shows large warming, above 2 degrees Celsius along the Angolan coast. Scientists are not certain whether to trust the results, however, because along this coastline very few temperature measurements were taken by ships in the late 19th century.

    But that uncertainty isn't going to stop the WP from fearmongering you about global warming with their scary headline and fancy page layout.

  9. #2659
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    Ron is once again wrong. Heatwaves are increasing in many parts of the world, Atlantic hurricane activity has seen a significant increase in recent decades, and there is too much scientific literature to cite indicating climate change has exacerbated wildfires:



    According to the scientific literature cited in this thread Atlantic hurricane activity has seen a significant increase in recent decades:

    - Significant increases in the strongest hurricanes have occurred in the North Atlantic (Kossin et al. 2013)

    - A more recent study shows 95th percentile/24-h hurricane intensity significantly increased in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic basin (Balaguru et al, 2018)

    - Intensity uncertainty is very low for the North Atlantic indicating the proportion of the highest hurricane intensity significantly increased in the Atlantic (Bhatia et al. 2019)

    - Hurricane intensity also increased significantly in the West Pacific (Mei et al, 2016)


    It is a fact, and contrary to Ron's original misrepresentation, that heatwaves are increasing in many parts of the world:

    Per the previous discussion, heatwaves are increasing in many parts of the world, like Australia, Europe and Asia, where historic data is available. In other parts of the world reliable historic data is unavailable and so it's hard to say with confidence whether Heatwaves are increasing in those regions too.



    Climate is just one of the many factors influencing wildfire risk, but the right climatic conditions enable fires to take hold and spread quickly. In many cases it’s not so much the number of fires that increases in a high fire year but the severity and size of the burn area resulting from fires once started. So, no, it's not hard to say global warming has exacerbated wildfires:


    - According to NASA the wildfire season has lengthened across a quarter of the world's vegetated surface.

    - Despite the increase in fire prevention and suppression efforts during the last decades, the number of fires has continued to grow markedly. This process is seen in various parts of the European continent and the former Soviet Union (Martínez-Ruiz, 1994) (Martín 1998) (Moreno 1998).

    - An increase in the maximum temperature when a wildfire occurs is associated with an increase in wildfire size, holding all other factors constant (Wood 2017).

    - Since the beginning of the twenty-first century California, USA, has experienced a substantial increase in the frequency of large wildfires (Keely 2019).

    - Under changing climate conditions, studies show that in Southern Europe summer drought conditions and high temperatures are the primary drivers of the size and variability of fires (Hessl 2011) (Turco 2012) (Ruffault 2016) (Amatulli 2009).

    - The Northern Rockies have experienced a pronounced increase in area burned in recent decades, a trend strongly linked to warming temperatures and ultimately a longer potential fire season (Higuera 2015).

  10. #2660
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    No, I don't lie or misrepresent the facts. That is what you do. You are a cherry picker. There isn't an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, heatwaves increased in Australia only if you cherry pick a post 1950 start date, and we don't have evidence of wildfires worsening, so its hard to say global warming has exacerbated wildfires.
    shut the fuck up you ignorant cunt!

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  12. #2662
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    Breaking news.

    Ron is once again wrong
    Ooof!

  13. #2663
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    And I'm the guy on ignore?
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  14. #2664
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Since we're going in circles posting and debunking the same false talking points over and over..

    Climate Change Deniers Present Graphic Description Of What Earth Must Look Like For Them To Believe
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  15. #2665
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    Quote Originally Posted by wooley12 View Post
    And I'm the guy on ignore?

    Sssssh, I told Cono that to get him to quit whining and STFU.

    And Ron went on ignore long ago.
    Ooof!

  16. #2666
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    No, I don't lie or misrepresent the facts. That is what you do. You are a cherry picker. .
    I know you are but what am I? I'm rubber you're glue. Nyah, nyah, nyah. JHC you sound like a 7 year old.

  17. #2667
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Ron is once again wrong. Heatwaves are increasing in many parts of the world, Atlantic hurricane activity has seen a significant increase in recent decades, and there is too much scientific literature to cite indicating climate change has exacerbated wildfires:
    MV likes to keep claiming that I am wrong, but it isn't true. He is the one that is wrong. He doesn't seem to understand the scientific process, and relies on cherry picking individual papers as the basis for his beliefs rather than the totality of the evidence.

    According to the scientific literature cited in this thread Atlantic hurricane activity has seen a significant increase in recent decades:
    - Significant increases in the strongest hurricanes have occurred in the North Atlantic (Kossin et al. 2013)

    - A more recent study shows 95th percentile/24-h hurricane intensity significantly increased in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic basin (Balaguru et al, 2018)

    - Intensity uncertainty is very low for the North Atlantic indicating the proportion of the highest hurricane intensity significantly increased in the Atlantic (Bhatia et al. 2019)

    - Hurricane intensity also increased significantly in the West Pacific (Mei et al, 2016)
    MV has a very hard time understanding that the intended role of organizations like the IPCC, WMO, and NCA are to look at the entirety of research on hurricanes and make comprehensive assessments.

    From the IPCC AR5: “No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.”

    From NOAA: “The historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”

    From the WMO: "only 1 of 11 authors agreed with the following statement: ‘the balance of evidence suggests that there has been a detectable increase in North Atlantic [tropical cyclone] activity since the 1970s’.” - MV must think very highly of that one author.



    And finally, it would do MV well to read the conclusion of the hurricane article I linked him previously:

    "There are of course scientists and other experts who have views on hurricanes that deviate, sometimes dramatically, from the conclusions reached by authoritative assessments on the overall body of knowledge and evidence. Science is strong because of the diversity of methods and perspectives that are brought to bear upon important research topics, and research on tropical cyclones reflects such diversity.

    But it seems that when it comes to hurricanes, it is common for activists, journalists and some scientists go out of their way to promote views that are at odds with leading assessments and to avoid placing those outlier views into the context of the careful conclusions of IPCC, U.S. NCA or WMO.

    Hurricanes have come to occupy a starring role in the political theater that is climate change. As a result, sorting fact from fiction can be difficult. Fortunately, the scientific community has gone to great lengths to carefully assess what is known, what is not and what we might expect to know in the future. It is up to everyone else to decide whether to rely on those assessments or not."

    It is a fact, and contrary to Ron's original misrepresentation, that heatwaves are increasing in many parts of the world:
    Per the previous discussion, heatwaves are increasing in many parts of the world, like Australia, Europe and Asia, where historic data is available. In other parts of the world reliable historic data is unavailable and so it's hard to say with confidence whether Heatwaves are increasing in those regions too.
    The only locations that have enough reliable historic temperature data to analyze heat waves are the US, Europe, and Australia. I can't find any data on European heat waves so I'm going to stop wasting my time looking for it and defer to you. Australia has not seen an increase in heatwaves, unless of course, you cherry pick your start date. And we can be certain that heatwaves have not gotten worse in the US.

    Climate is just one of the many factors influencing wildfire risk, but the right climatic conditions enable fires to take hold and spread quickly. In many cases it’s not so much the number of fires that increases in a high fire year but the severity and size of the burn area resulting from fires once started. So, no, it's not hard to say global warming has exacerbated wildfires:
    - According to NASA the wildfire season has lengthened across a quarter of the world's vegetated surface.

    - Despite the increase in fire prevention and suppression efforts during the last decades, the number of fires has continued to grow markedly. This process is seen in various parts of the European continent and the former Soviet Union (Martínez-Ruiz, 1994) (Martín 1998) (Moreno 1998).

    - An increase in the maximum temperature when a wildfire occurs is associated with an increase in wildfire size, holding all other factors constant (Wood 2017).

    - Since the beginning of the twenty-first century California, USA, has experienced a substantial increase in the frequency of large wildfires (Keely 2019).

    - Under changing climate conditions, studies show that in Southern Europe summer drought conditions and high temperatures are the primary drivers of the size and variability of fires (Hessl 2011) (Turco 2012) (Ruffault 2016) (Amatulli 2009).

    - The Northern Rockies have experienced a pronounced increase in area burned in recent decades, a trend strongly linked to warming temperatures and ultimately a longer potential fire season (Higuera 2015).
    Once again, MV resorts to cherry picking to make his points.

    "Why Everything They Say About California Fires -- Including That Climate Matters Most -- Is Wrong"
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#4c1f7b24cb66


    Two studies looking at wildfires at a global scale find that burn area has been decreasing:

    "Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world"
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/

    Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.

    "A human driven decline in global burned area"
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356

    Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

    ^
    Even the WaPo ran an article on that one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ing-less-land/

  18. #2668
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Self diagnosis is an important first step, well done rideit!

  19. #2669
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    I know you are but what am I? I'm rubber you're glue. Nyah, nyah, nyah. JHC you sound like a 7 year old.
    How am I supposed to respond to someone who falsely accuses me of doing exactly what he does?

  20. #2670
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    It's worth pointing out that this all started when Ron posted an Australian rainfall chart that had nothing to do with drought conditions in the effected region, had nothing to do with how the drying across portions of Australia is the most large-scale change in rainfall since national records began in 1900.


    That's why Ron arguments are like that scene in movies where you realize BOTH pilots are gone. For example, the IPCC report referenced earlier in this thread came out before the extreme rainfall and several of the ancillary regional paper(s) were released so it will be interesting to see what the next IPCC report says about extreme rainfall. Whereas Ron fell back on the earlier, now outdated, IPCC report to make false accusations of cherry picking a single outlier paper.



    The same is true of the hurricane data. Ron's Forbes article references the 2017 Climate Assessment and mentions updated hurricane research so Ron’s “indisputable facts,” per Ron's source, are not so unequivocal after all. The article even makes the point of skeptically considering outlier views and argues instead on placing more emphasis on the careful conclusions of the U.S. National Climate Assessment, et. al. So it's not cherry picking to cite updated research when in fact this is what the latest 2018 U.S. National Climate Assessment has to say:

    “Human-induced change is affecting atmospheric dynamics and contributing to the poleward expansion of the tropics and the northward shift in Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks since 1950. Increases in greenhouse gases and decreases in air pollution have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970. In the future, Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricane rainfall and intensity are projected to increase, as are the frequency and severity of landfalling “atmospheric rivers” on the West Coast.”



    Ron’s claim that there hasn’t been an increase in heatwaves is just as wrong today as it was earlier in this thread. Does it even need to be pointed out that increasingly frequent heatwaves in Europe, Australia and across much of Asia is the opposite of cherry picking? Those are, after all, substantial areas of the planet. And FWIW, heat waves happen in the oceans too. Ocean heat wave are also becoming more frequent and getting worse.

    Ron even tried to hang his hat on pre-1950 Australian heatwaves but the summer of 2018−19 was Australia's overall hottest on record during which several major heatwaves occurred and even between the record peak events, temperatures remained high. And prior to the 2019 heatwaves, the 2009 southeastern Australia heatwave led to record-breaking prolonged high temperatures in the region. That heat wave was thought to be one of the, if not the, most extreme in the region's history up until 2019.

    The reality is heatwaves are increasing in Australia too.



    And finally wildfires. There are two large trends at play. Because of human agricultural expansion, intensification and increasing population density there's been a decrease in area burned, the largest of which is African savannas and grasslands, while at the same time there's been a significant increase in the intensity and reach of fires in other areas like the western United States and the recent fires in Australia. Two things can true at the same time. It's not cherry picking to say climate change exacerbates wildfires even though globally machines have shrunk the total area available to fires for farmland.

    The bottom line is climate change is exacerbating wildfires in fire-prone ecosystems even though overall those ecosystems are shrinking due to human development.
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 11-28-2019 at 06:28 PM.

  21. #2671
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    How am I supposed to respond to someone who falsely accuses me of doing exactly what he does?
    ask joe biden

  22. #2672
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    And finally wildfires. There are two large trends at play. Because of human agricultural expansion, intensification and increasing population density there's been a decrease in area burned, the largest of which is in savannas and grasslands, while at the same time there's been a significant increase in the intensity and reach of fires in other areas like the western United States and the recent fires in Australia. Two things can true at the same time. It's not cherry picking to say climate change has exacerbating wildfires even though globally machines have shrunk the total area available to fires for farmland.

    The bottom line: an honest broker would acknowledge climate change is exacerbating wildfires in fire-prone ecosystems even though overall those ecosystems are shrinking due to human development. After all, according to Ron's source, "fire season length and area burned has increased in some regions" even though "there is increasing evidence suggesting that there is overall less fire in the landscape today than there has been centuries ago."
    as I pointed out pages ago, total area burned over time is a meaningless number, not only for the reasons you point out but also because of the change in approach and technology to fight fires. There were some enormous fires in NA back in the day. 100 years ago fires were mostly allowed to burn until fire season was over. There were few smaller communities in fire terrain to protect. There wasn't the manpower and machinery to fight fires nearly as successfully as we do today. Also, there as been a change in philosophy--from putting out every fire as quickly as possible to letting some fires burn and it seems more recently as fires blow up faster and faster to attacking them aggressively again. In the future, if and when fire prevention efforts like forest thinning and controlled burns become more widespread total acreage may decrease further. Just like human activity can influence the climate it can also influence things like wildfires. In any case, the fires we really worry about are the ones that destroy significant communities and kill significant numbers of people. Those seem to be becoming more frequent.

  23. #2673
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    as I pointed out pages ago, total area burned over time is a meaningless number, not only for the reasons you point out but also because of the change in approach and technology to fight fires. There were some enormous fires in NA back in the day. 100 years ago fires were mostly allowed to burn until fire season was over. There were few smaller communities in fire terrain to protect. There wasn't the manpower and machinery to fight fires nearly as successfully as we do today. Also, there as been a change in philosophy--from putting out every fire as quickly as possible to letting some fires burn and it seems more recently as fires blow up faster and faster to attacking them aggressively again. In the future, if and when fire prevention efforts like forest thinning and controlled burns become more widespread total acreage may decrease further. Just like human activity can influence the climate it can also influence things like wildfires. In any case, the fires we really worry about are the ones that destroy significant communities and kill significant numbers of people. Those seem to be becoming more frequent.
    Agreed. Climate is just one of the many factors influencing wildfire risk, but the right climatic conditions enable fires to take hold and spread quickly.

    In other words, it's weird that we're even arguing against the idea that a longer fires season, or hotter temperatures, or drier conditions due to climate change isn't making things worse than they would otherwise be, regardless of the many other factors at play.

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    I just remember Ron not being able to read graphs.
    Is this still going on?
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