California is Burning (Again)

[old goat]

Thunderstorm today at Donner Lake, followed by calfire engines heading towards the summit and a helicopter filling its bucket. out of the lake. I'm not seeing smoke yet.
There was dry thunder east of Truckee yesterday, no fires that I'm aware of.

[Meadow Skipper]

There was dry thunder east of Truckee yesterday, no fires that I'm aware of.

Heh, dry thunder is what my dad used to call it when...well, when he only passed gas instead of a satisfying crap in the bathroom.

Dry lightning is what causes fires.

[old goat]

Heh, dry thunder is what my dad used to call it when...well, when he only passed gas instead of a satisfying crap in the bathroom.

Dry lightning is what causes fires.

Just trying to be accurate--didn't see any lightning, just heard the thunder, meaning wherever the lightning was, it wasn't that close.

[jamal]

This is pretty good:

http://www.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInf...d3b7f75162b3f4

And this one gives you up to date satellite imagery, and you can add fire layers:

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov...82283135839357

And then if you just want to check really quick:

iscaliforniaonfire.com

[old goat]

Little fire up by the China Wall. The engines and chopper were back today. Apparently no big deal, all taken care of.

[Viva]

Heh. Old School!

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/lo...390499891.html

[bodywhomper]

It's that time of year again!

Anybody see the new PG&E de-energizing policy? Check your address.
https://m.pge.com/?WT_pgeac=Wildfire...ire-threat-map

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[LightRanger]

Bump for offshore wind event later this week. We've been super lucky so far this year, but that might change with possibly the strongest winds in 5-10 years in some areas. Event is going to be widespread N-->S too.

[bodywhomper]

Bump for offshore wind event later this week. We've been super lucky so far this year, but that might change with possibly the strongest winds in 5-10 years in some areas. Event is going to be widespread N-->S too.

Yawn!

J/K

Where is there good detail about recurrence of wind events in the state? I know “they” are saying this is forecasted as a 10-year recurrent event, similar to the wind event that resulted in the 2017 “wind complex fires” but I can find where that type of data is housed.

Western part of my county had two utility shut offs last month due to high wind forecasts. There were at least 3 structural fires from generator use in my area during the shut offs.

[LightRanger]

Looks like that info came from Sacto NWS, per Swain's comment. Pretty sure they have a ton of historical data that isn't posted online.

See current forecast discussion.

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[bodywhomper]

My reading comprehension is low, I think. I’m not seeing that sort of text.

I’m asking because I’ve heard it in a few places today, it seems like a pretty to predict wind recurrence, and I thought CA generally did not have great data about this type of stuff (I heard the state climatologist complain about lack of this type of data about 8 years ago).

[LightRanger]

My reading comprehension is low, I think. I’m not seeing that sort of text.

I’m asking because I’ve heard it in a few places today, it seems like a pretty to predict wind recurrence, and I thought CA generally did not have great data about this type of stuff (I heard the state climatologist complain about lack of this type of data about 8 years ago).

This progressive trof will be moving across the Nrn Rockys/Great
Basin during the middle of the week and in its wake, tightening
Nly and Ely pressure gradients over Norcal. Forecast SLPs some of
the highest/strongest that we have studied in high wind events, so
we look for some high wind signals on the WR Toolkit. One, the
climo percentile equals/exceeds 97.5 from 00z Wed to 18z Thu, with
the 99.5 bulls-eye over the Sac Vly, and a 700 mbs bulls-eye over
the NE foothills into the Sac Vly at 00z and 06z Thu. This offers
some terrific upper support for widespread windy conditions, and
a 1:10 yr event for this time frame. ECM ENS for BLU shows an
ensemble mean wind gust of 50+ MPH at 10/10/12z, quite windy for
BLU which achieves these wind speeds during winter storms and
strong katabatic wind events only. Best combo of strong winds and
dry fuels will be along the western edge of the Sacramento Valley
into the adjacent Coast Range foothills.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=3&glossary=1

[bodywhomper]

Ha! Thx. See reading comprehension, been struggling all day. A personal problem. I looked quite a bit for real data and found academic mentioning of developing wind recurrence mapping but never mapping or available data.

So 10% annual probability event. Lots of population proposed for shutdown at the moment.

[PB]

I'm sensing some disgruntlement regarding power shutdowns in anticipation of high wind events ......

[bodywhomper]

There was a ton of frustration last month when the wind events never occurred but there were two shutdowns. If they actually shutdown parts of urban Oakland, and all of San Leandro, el Cerrito, orinda, la Fayette, moraga, etc., it’ll be interesting to see what happens (hopefully nothing super bad). Pge inspects all lines before renenergizing each circuit.

[PB]

It would be fun to watch the "fireworks" of major urban areas were shut down (I'm inclined to think they should be if conditions warrant), but I'm upgrading my solar system to include battery backup as soon as the technology get's where it needs to be, and not really in an area that's likely to be shut down. Oakland and surrounding environs, of all places, has no right to be pissy about a shut down.

[bodywhomper]

The utility has a nice round number of 600k customers.

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[LightRanger]

It would be fun to watch the "fireworks" of major urban areas were shut down (I'm inclined to think they should be if conditions warrant), but I'm upgrading my solar system to include battery backup as soon as the technology get's where it needs to be, and not really in an area that's likely to be shut down. Oakland and surrounding environs, of all places, has no right to be pissy about a shut down.

Mom and pop are putting 8kw of solar in at their place in the hills later this month. Batteries are still so expensive that they're not going that route. $5-6k gets you a large, wired standby generator plumbed to your gas/LP line that automatically kicks in when power goes off. The necessary battery capacity to run the well pump (or even the AC) would be in the neighborhood of $20k.

The utility has a nice round number of 600k customers.

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600k households = several million people. Yikes.

[bodywhomper]

Oakland and surrounding environs, of all places, has no right to be pissy about a shut down.

I don't understand this sentiment, but I think I am missing something.

here's the map: https://www.pge.com/en_US/safety/eme...mpact-map.page

the shutoff is supposed to start at 4am. some of the circuits dip into densely populated urban areas where parts of the circuits or transmission lines feeding the circuits go through areas at risk of a wildland fire. they say 36hr minimum for shutoff. if line inspections after the wind event find a problem, shutting off the lines probably was a really good thing, but it'll result in longer outages. last year, PG&E did a public safety outage in el dorado county and it took 5 days for some to get their circuit re-energized but there was not fire. it'll be interesting to see the results of the outage in terms of economic and social effects. hopefully, all people make safe decisions (but i'm not optimistic).

[PB]

Safari won't let me go to your link, but you definitely have more info than I do - my snark was referring to the continuing fire trap of the Oakland Hills, even after the previous disaster. They made progress regarding fuel clearing/removal, but too many of the rebuilds after '91 firestorm were oversized fuel additions, plus the narrow, windy roads are still death traps. Power shut downs, while not the long term solution, are the best, albeit painful, response we've currently got for avoidance.

[Meadow Skipper]

I think PG&E might be playing a long game. People will get tired of shutdowns and become willing to pay for rate hikes or outright subsidies for hazard mitigation.

[teledad]

Mostly people seem to be getting pissed off at PG&E. Having the website down most of today didn't help.

Donner Summit is supposed to lose power even though winds are only supposed to reach 26mph (gusts) and there are still piles of snow next to my house. We'll see.

I bet there are a lot of generators getting sold (and deployed in various sketchy ways). Not sure that's a good thing from a fire perspective.

[LightRanger]

I think PG&E might be playing a long game. People will get tired of shutdowns and become willing to pay for rate hikes or outright subsidies for hazard mitigation.

There's definitely going to be a continued push by PG&E lobbyists to change the liability standard to something more lenient than strict liability/inverse condemnation.

Local Raleys was almost out of ice when I rolled in a little while ago.

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[bodywhomper]

How many babies will be born in NorCal in 40 weeks?!

Pge customers are already paying for hazard mitigation. Pge now “considers” undergrounding lines, and, in some places, has been doing it.

I’ve heard theory from informed sources that this is all a political strategy and the outage in the urban areas will be short. I’m hedging that my source is wrong.

Caldecott tunnel in the east bay is expected to loose power and be closed.

[LongShortLong]

my snark was referring to the continuing fire trap of the Oakland Hills, even after the previous disasterS.

ftfy

Oakland's been burning on a regular schedule, probably since history. They are currently a few years overdue.