"FUERTE EL NINO"

[The Duke of Hurl]

El PNW esta chingado por al menos uno ano.

http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-04-1...ng-big-el-ni-o

Condolencias, mi amigos.

[Buster Highmen]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/0...xt-winter.html

But the following shows a weak correlation between April El Ninos actually developing into fall/winter el Ninos:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/0...xt-winter.html



and in conclusion:
There is something else. You ever hear of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? This is a cyclic phenomenon of the Pacific ocean that has a great impact on sea surface temperatures and other parameters. A graph is shown below. We were in the warm phase from roughly 1976 to roughly 2005 and now appear to be in a cool phase. The strongest El Ninos like to be in the warm phase, which is not where we are now. So perhaps we should be careful about predicting super El Ninos.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

which one do we want again, the neenyos get confusing, neenyo neenyah, el la mentory or not.

I don't think it matters.

[GoldMember]

which one do we want again, the neenyos get confusing, neenyo neenyah, el la mentory or not.

For us in the PNW, La Nina is a babe... Typically, those are great storm years with copious snow totals. Unfortunately, El Nino is the opposite with typically warmer temps and often drier precipitation years.

[ZebraHead]

http://bestsnow.net/ El Nino/La Nina Defined and Ski Areas Favored by El Nino

"A JUL/AUG or AUG/SEP reading, available in early September or October, has an 81% correlation with what we'll have during the middle of the upcoming Northern Hemisphere ski season.

Correlations are not necessarily the best way to analyze El Nino/La Nina. Many meteorologists believe that only the stronger episodes have a material impact.
El Nino strongly favors only Southern California and Arizona, with milder effects extending to the southern Sierra, far southern Utah and New Mexico. In El Nino years the only big destination resort that is favored is Taos, and that in the mild category. Las Lenas and high Andes are strongly favored by El Nino".


Strongly favored by El Nino
Arizona Snowbowl 1, Ariz. 9,500 21.1% 53.8% 22 123%
Southern Cal Composite 7,000 20.1% 48.5% 38 126%
Portillo, Chile 9,400 44.9% 38
Las Lenas, Argentina 7,400 18.8% 44.9% 24
Arizona Snowbowl 2, Ariz. 10,800 18.2% 45.0% 23 123%

Mildly favored by El Nino
June Mtn, Calif. 8,700 21.1%
Brian Head, Utah 9,770 18.3% 43.5% 22 118%
Taos, N. Mex. 11,200 15.0% 31.3% 41 114%
Thompson Pass (Chugach 2,450 12.6% 38.1% 20 116%
Bear Valley, Calif. 7,750 10.6% 24.7% 45 112%
Mammoth Mtn, Calif. 9,600 or 8,900 8.5% 19.2% 45 111%

[hortence]

I'll see your PDO and raise you the North Atlantic Oscillation, currently in phase to last another 3-5 years, and at least one (albeit outlier) meteorologist is forecasting that this brings sweet sweet water to the parched Southwest.

At least that's what I tell myself...

[LightRanger]

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...d.php?t=275882

Klaus Wolter was seeing indicators that he hasn't seen as strong since preceding that last Super El Nino in 1997/1998, cold PDO be damned.

With more energy in the system in a warmer world, models based on past behavior are going to become less reliable.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Like I said it doesn't matter. '97/'98 was about average for the PNW in WA and OR. '04/'05 was one of the worst years ever for snow and that was a weak/moderate EN. This season was bleak for the most part and it was ENSO neutral. We won't know until it happens or get closer to the snow months in late fall.

[raisingarizona13]

'04/'05 was incredible here in Flagstaff. I think by May we had received about 500 inches on the mountain. We only had one 2 week period without a storm in December, the rest of the season we had at least one good storm a week. We skied lines that most likely had not been skied before. After 3 super dry seasons I'm sorry friends to the north but it is our turn. Cheers to the Super El Nino!

[TahoeJ]

Good news for Tahoe and Utah, if it pans out.

[Hey Diddle Diddle]

El nino years in the Wasatch often cause a persistent high which sits over the intermountain west and causes a split jet stream. The southern branch of the split is much more robust. This means big years in Telluride, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Durango, Taos, Flagstaff, Mammoth, Baldy, Las Vegas, Santa Fe, Ski Apache, Brianhead, etc... It often means frustration in Northern Utah.

[Johnny Deep]

^^^

After the last three years, we're sensitized. We won’t even notice.