Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[jm2e]

I keep checking in to see when you guys are going to reassure me that this shit is coming around again.


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[stalefish3169]

You are young and very naive.

You're free to think that if you'd like. That doesn't change the fact that the USA has an obscene amount of gun violence which doesn't appear like it will be getting better anytime soon. So anyway, congrats on joining PG in the making blanket racist statements against Central America club.

Except that you are only telling it like you perceive it to be and you are absolutely positive that your viewpoint is the right one and everyone else is wrong.

It's called conviction man. I post facts to the best of my ability. Most anti-crypto people here resort to childish behavior and manipulation which you were guilty of a few posts above. Maybe I'll be more amenable towards your viewpoints if you post something of value.

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[MultiVerse]

Alternatively, even by the most conservative estimates, BTC mining uses renewable energy at a rate 2x that of the USA's grid.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/hbr.org...tually-consume

Not anymore. Your outdated article discusses hydro power in China as the main source of renewable bitcoin mining. Not only was Chinese hydro seasonal to began with (bitcoin renewable claims often incorrectly extrapolated season percentages to an entire year) but now even that's gone.

The article also mentions Scandinavian hydro powered mining but Norway and other Nordic countries are also seeing increasing opposition to bitcoin mining, arguing it should be prioritized last in connecting to the grid. And El Salvador's Bukele says geothermal energy will be used to mine bitcoin but El Salvador is densely populated and mostly powered by oil. Only 3.4% is geothermal. That means using available renewables to consume additional energy has the same effect as burning more oil directly.

There's no getting away from the fact Proof-of-Work is made to waste resources by design.


https://www.tu.no/artikler/nytt-utva...mnettet/510967

[garyfromterrace]

Using electricity isn't inherently bad. Electricity can come from renewables

Yeah, it's not inherently bad. Using your cell phone or computer isn't bad either but both those things use shit tons of plastic and that currently comes from the oil and gas industry. As does energy for bitcoin mining and air conditioning (partially powered by awesome coal fired plants). And fuel for your heliski trip. And to fill up your cool sport ute. Electricity can come from renewables but doesn't in large part because the infrastructure isn't there yet. Yeah stalefishman, I'd like to believe that your bitcoins are are thing for good but I can't help think they represent nothing except a ponzi scheme that I missed getting in on the ground floor on. Just like that liquor bottle ponzi scam in the '80's (you know, buy this one guy a bottle and you'll get 6 back). Well I did get one bottle back the one year I tried that bullshit get something for nothing scam, so it was break even for me. What happens when BTC goes to $0.50 ......because really it's an investment in what exactly? Nothing tangible I can see. Hope it doesn't collapse the economy and I hurt for that. Stalefish, I don't wish you ill. I just disagree with the premise that BTC and crypto in general is "good" for the planet.

[shera]

The best bitcoin mining machine is the s19pro and the cost of it has gone through the roof, I've seen it >$12k! Plug that one into your roi calculator if you want a laugh. Also I've read that the dedicated PSUs can't be had for love or money, so machines can't be repaired. I have an s15 that needs a psu. I'm very curious how the Chinese exodus will affect the market for mining hardware. Add in the price of bitcoin cut in half - lot of forces at play and hash rate is falling so I am looking for "miner capitulation".

I had a couple of buy orders filled 33.3k and 32.3k.

[pureantigravity]

^^^ Thanks Shera. That gives me a data and maths idea for the Bitcoin network:

• Bitmain Antminer S19 pro Mining Hash Rate: 110TH, Power Consumption: 3250W, Dimensions: 400mm ( L) * 195mm (W) * 290mm (H).
• Cost per Bitmain Antminer S19 pro bought by RIOT last year in an order of 8,000 units = $2,212 per unit. Consumer retail is about $14,000 on Amazon.com.
• Network hashrate for BTC is 140 million TH/s right now.
• Cost per transaction (fees plus BTC reward distribution) is $143.
• Transactions per second of the network = 7-ish
• 568,000 unique Bitcoin wallet addresses.

That means that if all the machines were the best Antminer S19 Pro's:

• 1.272727 million = number of mining units it would take to serve the network.
• 5.264 million gigawatts = total power consumption.
• 28,789 cubic metres = space (volume) required by all the machines, not including racking and other infrastructure.
• $2.815 billion dollars = cost of hardware at bulk buy price. Or $17.8B dollars at retail pricing for the machines.
• 1.595 billion strands of 14 guage copper wire to carry the electricity with 220V standard.
• The cross sectional area of the wire will need to be 3.317 million square metres. (5.2M GW / 220V = 23.9B amps / 15amps) = 1.595 trillion strands of wire X 2.08mm square)

It only takes the DeLorean in Back to The Future 1.21 gigawatts of power to initiate time travel. With the power used by the Bitcoin network in just 1/4 of ONE second, all 568,000 Bitcoin address owners could be sent back to the Rai Stones era with oral history accounting (ancient blockchain method).

It would require 22.53 hours of constant purchasing for just for the initial purchase of time travel vehicles. During the 22.53 hours of waiting, the network will also be operating at 5.264 million gigawatts per second. So 426.9 #plaid #watts (see ***) will be needed for the transactions although the actual time travel machines need just 1/4 of a second of the networks energy consumption.

There would also be a $8.52 transaction fee per user. In addition, there will also need to be an exchange account created for each user and it will need to be funded with dirty fiat and each user will also need a Ledger hardware wallet and a 12 word passphrase that they can't lose. Rainbow log charts not needed since Rai Stone era still using regular rainbows.

Good luck finding the electricity to get back
(see ****)



======================
Please let me know if you see any calculation errors and I will be glad to correct any values.
*Using 30 day average value.
** VISA has offered to do this for free in a total of 10.32 seconds - no waiting. They say they can bill you in 30 days at 18% interest on unpaid accounts. If you can return to the future BEFORE the purchase, then you can actually travel for free (think about it!). You also can collect travel points but only if you return in-the-future.
*** From now on a billion gigawatts will be referred to as #plaid #watts in honour of the movie Space Balls.
**** OMG. Key detail. They could actually stay in the Rai Stones era and reproduce. This could cause a fissure where time tracks diverged from a nexus point and the end result being ... never mind

[Meathelmet]

You're free to think that if you'd like.... . It's called conviction man. I post facts to the best of my ability.

You are young and very naive.

Except that you are only telling it like you perceive it to be and you are absolutely positive that your viewpoint is the right one and everyone else is wrong.

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. It is strongest when tied to personal security - including financial security.

Stale, the challenge with you is that you are very resistant towards facts that come from the outside, i.a, You.
This regarding discussion about energy expenditure, computational issues, financial structures, behaviourism or geopolitics.
To date, you have never been wrong, re-evaluated your point of views or adapted your viewpoint to circumstances when presented with evidence, statistics or facts.
In your own words, you have merely been upholding your "conviction". Sadly this approach does not hold up to any kind of scientific rigour or come across as a particularly robust investment strategy...albeit you stated yourself that "my investing strategy is quite aggressive". As many has stated here, very few wishes you ill or want to see you eat shit, but with your current mindset it is very hard to maintain a meaningful discourse.

With the vested interests (fiscal, psychological, etc) it might be very hard for you to distance yourself from the unfolding events (unlike LeeLau) to make sound moves in the very near future.

The Writing is on the Wall, has been for a while.
Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

"China said Monday it had ordered domestic banks and Ant Group Co. payment platform Alipay not to provide services linked to trading of virtual currencies, tightening the reins on the cryptocurrency industry yet again."

"The inquiry was focused on services provided to assist speculative trades in virtual currencies, it said, adding such activities “disrupt financial order and also breed risks of criminal activities like illegal cross-border asset transfers and money laundering.”"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

[stalefish3169]

Yeah, it's not inherently bad. Using your cell phone or computer isn't bad either but both those things use shit tons of plastic and that currently comes from the oil and gas industry. As does energy for bitcoin mining and air conditioning (partially powered by awesome coal fired plants). And fuel for your heliski trip. And to fill up your cool sport ute. Electricity can come from renewables but doesn't in large part because the infrastructure isn't there yet. Yeah stalefishman, I'd like to believe that your bitcoins are are thing for good but I can't help think they represent nothing except a ponzi scheme that I missed getting in on the ground floor on. Just like that liquor bottle ponzi scam in the '80's (you know, buy this one guy a bottle and you'll get 6 back). Well I did get one bottle back the one year I tried that bullshit get something for nothing scam, so it was break even for me. What happens when BTC goes to $0.50 ......because really it's an investment in what exactly? Nothing tangible I can see. Hope it doesn't collapse the economy and I hurt for that. Stalefish, I don't wish you ill. I just disagree with the premise that BTC and crypto in general is "good" for the planet.

I wish you well too. However, you don't get BTC's value proposition because (I surmise) you come from a position of immense financial privilege that you don't realize you have, nor do most other North Americans.

I don't think printing an infinite amount of money that largely goes to the already rich is good for the planet. It devalues the money earned from people's labor and props up an economy premised upon endless growth and consumption sustained by artificially low interest rates.

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[MultiVerse]

The problem with a 'propped up economy':

Attachment 377580

[stalefish3169]

Stale, the challenge with you is that you are very resistant towards facts that come from the outside, i.a, You.
This regarding discussion about energy expenditure, computational issues, financial structures, behaviourism or geopolitics.
To date, you have never been wrong, re-evaluated your point of views or adapted your viewpoint to circumstances when presented with evidence, statistics or facts.
In your own words, you have merely been upholding your "conviction". Sadly this approach does not hold up to any kind of scientific rigour or come across as a particularly robust investment strategy...albeit you stated yourself that "my investing strategy is quite aggressive". As many has stated here, very few wishes you ill or want to see you eat shit, but with your current mindset it is very hard to maintain a meaningful discourse.

With the vested interests (fiscal, psychological, etc) it might be very hard for you to distance yourself from the unfolding events (unlike LeeLau) to make sound moves in the very near future.

The Writing is on the Wall, has been for a while.
Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.

"China said Monday it had ordered domestic banks and Ant Group Co. payment platform Alipay not to provide services linked to trading of virtual currencies, tightening the reins on the cryptocurrency industry yet again."

"The inquiry was focused on services provided to assist speculative trades in virtual currencies, it said, adding such activities “disrupt financial order and also breed risks of criminal activities like illegal cross-border asset transfers and money laundering.”"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

Funny that you claim my views don't hold up to scientific rigor when cryptocurrency is the culmination of thousands of years of math, science, and technology. I'm also constantly reassessing my investment thesis as I seek out and gain more knowledge. Over time that has made me gravitate more and more towards BTC. This strategy may not come across clearly in this thread. However, I've literally spent thousands of hours researching the history of money, crytpo, etc. To me it feels like, and I could be wrong about some of you, that most people's "research" about crypto doesn't go beyond shit posting in this thread and reading a handful of mainstream media articles on crypto that are often horrendously inaccurate.

My investment moves are for the long-term, not the near future. I believe this is at odds with the general US economy which is hyper-focused on maximizing next quarter's EBITDA and why I really don't like investing in stonks.

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[stalefish3169]

The problem with a 'propped up economy':

Attachment 377580

Let's be clear, I'm not rooting for society to collapse. I'm hoping for a course correction. Society has major problems that need fixing.

This is one of my favorite pieces on what I'm referring to by using the term "propped up economy." You all can read it and maybe learn something. Or you can just post memes and accuse me of being unwaveringly obtuse some more. Your call.

https://allenfarrington.medium.com/t...m-5ed0a9d5dfa9


This is basically the tl;dr because I know most of you won't spend 30 minutes reading an article.

https://twitter.com/allenf32/status/...302523904?s=19

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[Skidog]

BITCOIN WILL SAVE THE WORLD.

[MultiVerse]

lol @ 'learn something.' The irony is debates revolving around money are timeless. The mistake bitcoiners make in rediscovering these age old debates is believing a world exists where there are no tradeoffs.

The absurd belief held by early-adopters that prices only go up, if true, makes crypto unsuitable as a medium of exchange or as a unit of account. You only get a store of value if that happens.

Think of money as three vertices of a triangle pulling in different directions: economic activity (exchange), capital (value), or GDP (unit of account). If you constrain supply to preserve value then money's usefulness for exchange is hurt and people lose their jobs. Money only fuels commerce if it is also growing itself but too much or too little are also problematic.

Even if bitcoin solves for inflation it bounces around so violently that functioning as a 'store of value' is impossible. So the question becomes which do you value more: a smooth rise in prices or a volatile deflationary speculative assert. The most important thing to realize is neither one solves for the other.

Money is an asset, a currency, and a unit of account all rolled into one, torn in different directions by each of its roles.

[JimmyCarter]

I wish you well too. However, you don't get BTC's value proposition because (I surmise) you come from a position of immense financial privilege that you don't realize you have, nor do most other North Americans.

I don't think printing an infinite amount of money that largely goes to the already rich is good for the planet. It devalues the money earned from people's labor and props up an economy premised upon endless growth and consumption sustained by artificially low interest rates.

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Come on man….Bitcoin will not benefit anyone who doesn’t already own Bitcoin (and has for a while) or does not have the capital to acquire it.

Bitcoin growth from here on out is primarily the rich getting richer, along with a few hodlers with a lower cost basis.

[Brock Landers]

lol @ 'learn something.' The irony is debates revolving around money are timeless. The mistake bitcoiners make in rediscovering these age old debates is believing a world exists where there are no tradeoffs.

The absurd belief held by early-adopters that prices only go up, if true, makes crypto unsuitable as a medium of exchange or as a unit of account. You only get a store of value if that happens.

Think of money as three vertices of a triangle pulling in different directions: economic activity (exchange), capital (value), or GDP (unit of account). If you constrain supply to preserve value then money's usefulness for exchange is hurt and people lose their jobs. Money only fuels commerce if it is also growing itself but too much or too little are also problematic.

Even if bitcoin solves for inflation it bounces around so violently that functioning as a 'store of value' is impossible. So the question becomes which do you value more: a smooth rise in prices or a volatile deflationary speculative assert. The most important thing to realize is neither one solves for the other.

Money is an asset, a currency, and a unit of account all rolled into one, torn in different directions by each of its roles.

Agreed.

I think longer term btc can be that alternate currency, a store of value. But it may take decades to find that level. To find “par”. Took gold 5000 years (but no internet) to find a level.

Right now it’s an investment, for better or worse. Not sure why 50k would be a suitable price target. Or 30k. Or 100k. Who fucking knows. If you throw out a price target, you are guessing just like anyone else.

[shera]

I think we can agree that mining went into a speculative bubble, maybe worse than the price bubble when you consider hodl outlay vs mining outlay. A lot (most?) of the speculative mining outlay was conducted with borrowed money and when/if that money comes due then I suppose bitcoin and hardware will be sold or mothballed. The late buyers will either have to wait years to roi or capitulate and maybe go bankrupt.

So from a mining perspective, maybe this supports some people's idea that the cycle will have two peaks, the one at 65k and then another at some later point.

Could Chinese govt or various actors already have all this figured out, seems like they don't miss a beat too often on economics? Do they care about the bitcoin ecosytem anyway? /rhetorical

Hashrates could continue to decline due to weaker hardware and more expensive electric rates no longer participating in the network. Mining bubble burst. Personally I would just like two of those s19pro units, will be watching prices. The next question in all of this is when 5nm? I think Bitmain is already working on it, can't quite remember.

[Meathelmet]

Funny that you claim my views don't hold up to scientific rigor when cryptocurrency is the culmination of thousands of years of math, science, and technology.

There you went off the rail...instantly: Your view of cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency are totally, utterly, different thing. If you fail to see that difference, I honestly dont know what to say... That take is just...baffling.

I'm also constantly reassessing my investment thesis as I seek out and gain more knowledge. Over time that has made me gravitate more and more towards BTC. This strategy may not come across clearly in this thread. However, I've literally spent thousands of hours researching the history of money, crytpo, etc.

Good if you have read a lot, the main question is if your reading has critical. Through your posts it does not come across that way as many of the posted links/references are of very dubious quality, obvious bias or directly from individuals & institutions with direct, vested interests. None (?) of the links that you have posted (if they are supposed to act as a frame of reference for your reading) come across even remotely critical towards the phenomena or fulfil standards applied in research.

My investment moves are for the long-term, not the near future.

Again, good for you! But you do realise that the initial premise that most cryptos has promised (stability, growth, security) has gone out of the window just as many has predicted? There is now a systemic, or even existential risk, with cryptos as the nation states are turning against them from various reasons: Political, economical, ecological and ideological.

When one is hedging bets against actions NationStatesTM...well...good luck..

[Meathelmet]

Could Chinese govt or various actors already have all this figured out, seems like they don't miss a beat too often on economics? Do they care about the bitcoin ecosytem anyway? /rhetorical

Take from an acquaintance of mine: China (or more accurately CPC) used BTC as research vessel, to see what kind of shape it would take. Like what kind of new social / economical systems would emerge, resiliency of the underlying infra (computational/physical). Basically use it as a petridish or a research project. Now The Party has gathered enough data to continue their Long March and the project is considered as nuisance and a risk. The party is preparing for their 100th Birthday and it does not want any kind of surprises anymore, so mining taking stressing the electric grid during summertime is just a risk they are not interested in.

So : ByeBye Version 1.0 and stay tuned for the party approved 2.0.

[stalefish3169]

Come on man….Bitcoin will not benefit anyone who doesn’t already own Bitcoin (and has for a while) or does not have the capital to acquire it.

Bitcoin growth from here on out is primarily the rich getting richer, along with a few hodlers with a lower cost basis.

You should try listening to this and then think about what you just typed.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5rO...nk&dl_branch=1

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[stalefish3169]

Take from an acquaintance of mine: China (or more accurately CPC) used BTC as research vessel, to see what kind of shape it would take. Like what kind of new social / economical systems would emerge, resiliency of the underlying infra (computational/physical). Basically use it as a petridish or a research project. Now The Party has gathered enough data to continue their Long March and the project is considered as nuisance and a risk. The party is preparing for their 100th Birthday and it does not want any kind of surprises anymore, so mining taking stressing the electric grid during summertime is just a risk they are not interested in.

So : ByeBye Version 1.0 and stay tuned for the party approved 2.0.

Let me get this straight. A regime with an absolutely horrible track record on human rights realized they can't control a decentralized network and is abandoning it. And you're saying this is a bad thing?

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[TahoeJ]

Tell me what happens if the whole internet goes dark? Those bitcoins (and fiat) will be worth piss....gold? Not so much.

Uhh... you realize if the internet goes dark we're just completely fucked regardless of crypto and there'd be complete chaos, right? What a strange argument.

[stalefish3169]

Money only fuels commerce if it is also growing itself but too much or too little are also problematic.

So where does printing 20%+ of the M2 money supply in one year fall on this spectrum?


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[MultiVerse]

We're going to find out. The danger is real. So far the United States has weathered the pandemic better than most thanks to the Fed but that doesn't mean we won't see higher than expected inflation. But it's not as simple as saying the M2 or whatever money machine go brrrrrrr and then conclude out of control inflation is invertible.

Nobody is really sure where it will go. If the Fed manages to contain average PCE growth between 1.8% to 2.2% over the course of the decade and a PCE level of around 135 in 2030 that would probably count as success for the Fed’s AIT (Average Inflation Targeting) policy.

[Meathelmet]

Let me get this straight. A regime with an absolutely horrible track record on human rights realized they can't control a decentralized network and is abandoning it. And you're saying this is a bad thing?

There you go again, Direction Tangent. I merely stated that, to paraphrase you, "A regime with an absolutely horrible track record on human rights realized they can't control a decentralized network and is abandoning it."

The motives do not matter, causalities do. I am merely stating the facts (to the best of my knowledge) how events are currently unfolding and pondering the ramifications on larger scale. I have no direct economical interests in the matter at hand, but a lot of direct interests regarding economy, human rights, geopolitics, security, democracy and especially ecology/sustainability.

[Skidog]

Uhh... you realize if the internet goes dark we're just completely fucked regardless of crypto and there'd be complete chaos, right? What a strange argument.

Of course, but when the dust settled, which it would, do you think a Bitcoin or gold would be worth more?

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