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  1. #10076
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlMega View Post
    So I'm a bond idiot, cold read here. But are you equating trading bonds vs. them coming to maturity vs. a hope that BTC climbs over an extremely long timeline? Isn't that Apples to Oranges to Coconuts?
    I guess we were typing at the same time. My thesis, and answer to your question is in my post above. Yes, there is not a 1:1 comparison. But this is a new frontier, cowboy.

  2. #10077
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Bonds are selling off at a historic rate because people are not optimistic about the future.
    So, Bond rates went to negative yield because people were optimistic about the future?

    Also, your chart is a constant maturity yield chart. Not really a bond chart.

  3. #10078
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Bonds are selling off at a historic rate because people are not optimistic about the future.
    You think low yields = optimism?

    BTW here is 30 year mortage rates:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

    Still incredibly low by any historical measurement.

  4. #10079
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    Let's check the tape.

    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Bonds are selling off at a historic rate because people are not optimistic about the future.
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    So, Bond rates went to negative yield because people were optimistic about the future?

    Also, your chart is a constant maturity yield chart. Not really a bond chart.
    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    You think low yields = optimism?

    BTW here is 30 year mortage rates:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

    Still incredibly low by any historical measurement.

  5. #10080
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    There’s your bitcoin buyer presenting the new world of finance

  6. #10081
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    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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  7. #10082
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    I mean, it's cool if you want to get 2% or less yields while inflation is running in double digits. Good luck with that.

    https://www.investopedia.com/article...or%20inflation.

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  8. #10083
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    We could use a little more funneh in here today.

    https://twitter.com/Cryptofung/statu...1YTuLnsJQ&s=19

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  9. #10084
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    There’s your bitcoin buyer presenting the new world of finance
    Here ya go, guys. LOL

    https://twitter.com/saylor/status/15...A0Kc6sRig&s=19

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  10. #10085
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    Jan 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Here ya go, guys. LOL

    https://twitter.com/saylor/status/15...A0Kc6sRig&s=19

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    She actually said “we should be a nation of savers that produce economic value instead of going further into debt”, which is hysterical because the only way saving produces economic value is by banks creating new debt with it.

    These are your thought leaders in the space…

  11. #10086
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    The source is from some obscure minor player called Deutsche Bank.

    Flashback to earlier this week when I said there is a major problem in the bond market. You assured me that you know more about bonds than I do. I came with a receipt illustrating how fucked the bond market is and now you're like, "Ummmmmm, what?"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rout#xj4y7vzkg
    I did not say that.. But go ahead and blatantly lie.. You have great experience doing that here
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  12. #10087
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    I did not say that.. But go ahead and blatantly lie.. You have great experience doing that here
    You responded by implying that some years are up and some are down like what we're dealing with is just vanilla volatility. When in reality, we're in largely uncharted waters. This is not normal activity.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...et-2022-06-16/

    SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, June 16 (Reuters) - Japan's government bond market is being pushed to breaking point in a contest between foreign speculators and the Bank of Japan, creating challenges for loan pricing and bond sales and raising the prospect of government financing tangles down the track.

    Extreme stress was evident on Wednesday, when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) spent more than 700 billion yen ($5.2 billion) buying bonds to defend its 10-year yield ceiling, only to see 10-year futures suffer their steepest plunge in almost a decade...

  13. #10088
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    You responded by implying that some years are up and some are down like what we're dealing with is just vanilla volatility. When in reality, we're in largely uncharted waters. This is not normal activity.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...et-2022-06-16/

    SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, June 16 (Reuters) - Japan's government bond market is being pushed to breaking point in a contest between foreign speculators and the Bank of Japan, creating challenges for loan pricing and bond sales and raising the prospect of government financing tangles down the track.

    Extreme stress was evident on Wednesday, when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) spent more than 700 billion yen ($5.2 billion) buying bonds to defend its 10-year yield ceiling, only to see 10-year futures suffer their steepest plunge in almost a decade...
    so tell us how Japan can fix this with bitcoin.

  14. #10089
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    Quote Originally Posted by TG View Post
    so tell us how Japan can fix this with bitcoin.
    I mean, have you heard about El Salvador? Are you trying to tell me, with a straight face, that Japan wouldn't jump at the opportunity to be like El Salvador?

  15. #10090
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    Jun 2020
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    Bond returns have been shitty over the past 5+ years, and luckily I have almost all my investments in stocks not bonds. But if you do have bonds, there’s probably a good chance it’s in a bond index. Let’s check in on how those are doing:


    Click image for larger version. 

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    How’s BTC in comparison?

  16. #10091
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Bond returns have been shitty over the past 5+ years, and luckily I have almost all my investments in stocks not bonds. But if you do have bonds, there’s probably a good chance it’s in a bond index. Let’s check in on how those are doing:


    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	E5C26C1C-D828-43BC-A612-408F36B6D5F6.jpeg 
Views:	51 
Size:	353.3 KB 
ID:	419716

    How’s BTC in comparison?
    BTC has gone to the dark side of the moon
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  17. #10092
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    Quote Originally Posted by TG View Post
    so tell us how Japan can fix this with bitcoin.
    Bitcoin is not going to solve Japan's problems, or any country's any time soon. However, it does give people an option to opt out of failing central bank fiat currencies for a monetary system that's as decentralized as the world has seen so far. BTC has also been the best performing asset class of the last decade plus and it's not close.

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  18. #10093
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Bond returns have been shitty over the past 5+ years, and luckily I have almost all my investments in stocks not bonds. But if you do have bonds, there’s probably a good chance it’s in a bond index. Let’s check in on how those are doing:


    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	E5C26C1C-D828-43BC-A612-408F36B6D5F6.jpeg 
Views:	51 
Size:	353.3 KB 
ID:	419716

    How’s BTC in comparison?
    If people are going to try to say that when I post log scale y-axis BTC charts it's misleading, I am going to say that trying to look at BTC for only 1 year of x-axis is not telling the whole story.

    BTC is now at moving averages and other price metrics that have been hugely profitable for accumulation and holding for just a few years. Could this time be different? Perhaps. You should try out the new short ETF if you think it is.

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  19. #10094
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    If people are going to try to say that when I post log scale y-axis BTC charts it's misleading, I am going to say that trying to look at BTC for only 1 year of x-axis is not telling the whole story.
    Umm what?

  20. #10095
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    Ok, the last two Friday nights, bitcoin has been pushed down, dumped on low volume. I wake up to margin calls, trying to put a dark cloud over my weekend! I guess that's one way to flush the leverage out of the system. I wonder about tonight...
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  21. #10096
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    Oct 2002
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    Quote Originally Posted by byates1 View Post
    Sigh. All the exchanges pointedly said they are not freezing assets in Russia or Ukraine. All the exchanges have a lending option within

    BTC is donated
    Sent to your wallet
    Upload to exchange
    Borrow USD or whatever
    Now you have fiat in your wallet.

    So yeah no AK, just 10 min on your phone.
    Wonder how that’s all working out? Not sure what kind of LTV policies are typically in place with this sorta thing, but if it’s any more than 25% some folk be sweatin, for sure.
    focus.

  22. #10097
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Bitcoin is not going to solve Japan's problems, or any country's any time soon. However, it does give people an option to opt out of failing central bank fiat currencies for a monetary system that's as decentralized as the world has seen so far. BTC has also been the best performing asset class of the last decade plus and it's not close.

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    So remind me again how Bitcoin can replace currencies when it currently maxed out at something like 7 transactions per second?

    You call them failing with no evidence. USD and Euro are not going anywhere.

  23. #10098
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    BTC has also been the best performing asset class of the last decade plus and it's not close.

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    Is that asset class unicorn farts?
    “I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.”
    ― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

    www.mymountaincoop.ca

    This is OUR mountain - come join us!

  24. #10099
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    Quote Originally Posted by garyfromterrace View Post
    Is that asset class unicorn farts?
    18,000% gain if you bought at the bottom; I doubt we'll see an asset without a balance sheet make that kind of run ever again.
    If BTC was worth $1,000, that gain would still look amazing, but would clearly not be reflective of 2022 crypto sentiment.

  25. #10100
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    My statement means a lot of things. But the entire premise of BTC is that decentralized consensus is reached very reliably without having to trust intermediaries. If you hold BTC, its integrity is instantly verifiable, unlike gold. You also don't have to trust that unelected central bankers won't debase your money by suddenly adding 20% more to the supply.
    Integrity? Sorry, not buying.
    “I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.”
    ― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

    www.mymountaincoop.ca

    This is OUR mountain - come join us!

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