Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[byates1]

Also. Actual cash is like 3% of overall dollars. 97% is numbers on a screen.

[mcphee]

Much wow

[byates1]

Glad I could help.

[stalefish3169]

The hurdle rate is supposed inflation. But everyone has their own inflation rate. Look at houses, cars, food etc. Inflation is not 5% for desirable things.

Like adult diapers, it depends.

Just heard some very serious economists on NPR predict US inflation will be back to 3% by the end of the year. These were the same clowns who said inflation was transitory. LMAO

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[Bunion 2020]

Huh, I just heard a mild recession predicted for Q3/Q4. That would do it.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Just heard some very serious economists on NPR predict US inflation will be back to 3% by the end of the year. These were the same clowns who said inflation was transitory. LMAO

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Inflation trend over the past 12 months:



Data is noisy, and subject to revisions (as part of the official process, as more complete data becomes available), but not at all crazy to expect the headline CPI to be at 3% by end of the year, since the trend line is there already.

Of course you won’t believe it when it happens, because you still won’t be able to afford the house you want.

[schuss]

Oh look, Binance getting sued. Raise your hand if you're shocked a crypto exchange is lying through their teeth. Anyone?
https://www.docdroid.net/I02zzqT/sec-v-binance-4-pdf

First, Binance and BAM Trading, under Zhao’s leadership and control, have
unlawfully offered three essential securities market functions—exchange, broker-dealer, and
clearing agency—on the Binance Platforms without registering with the SEC. Acutely aware
that U.S. law requires registration for these functions, Defendants nevertheless chose not to
register, so they could evade the critical regulatory oversight designed to protect investors and
markets.
4. Second, Binance and BAM Trading have unlawfully engaged in unregistered
offers and sales of crypto asset securities, including Binance’s own crypto assets called “BNB”
and “BUSD,” as well as Binance’s profit-generating programs called “BNB Vault” and “Simple
Earn,” and a so-called “staking” investment scheme available on the Binance.US Platform. In so
doing, they have deprived investors of material information, including the risks and trends that
affect the enterprise and an investment in these securities.
5. Third, BAM Trading and BAM Management have made misrepresentations to
investors about controls they claimed to have implemented on the Binance.US Platform, while
raising approximately $200 million from private investors in BAM Management and attracting
billions of dollars in trading volume from investors (including retail and institutional investors)
seeking to transact on the Binance.US Platform.

[skaredshtles]

Oh look, Binance getting sued. Raise your hand if you're shocked a crypto exchange is lying through their teeth. Anyone?
https://www.docdroid.net/I02zzqT/sec-v-binance-4-pdf

First, Binance and BAM Trading, under Zhao’s leadership and control, have
unlawfully offered three essential securities market functions—exchange, broker-dealer, and
clearing agency—on the Binance Platforms without registering with the SEC. Acutely aware
that U.S. law requires registration for these functions, Defendants nevertheless chose not to
register, so they could evade the critical regulatory oversight designed to protect investors and
markets.
4. Second, Binance and BAM Trading have unlawfully engaged in unregistered
offers and sales of crypto asset securities, including Binance’s own crypto assets called “BNB”
and “BUSD,” as well as Binance’s profit-generating programs called “BNB Vault” and “Simple
Earn,” and a so-called “staking” investment scheme available on the Binance.US Platform. In so
doing, they have deprived investors of material information, including the risks and trends that
affect the enterprise and an investment in these securities.
5. Third, BAM Trading and BAM Management have made misrepresentations to
investors about controls they claimed to have implemented on the Binance.US Platform, while
raising approximately $200 million from private investors in BAM Management and attracting
billions of dollars in trading volume from investors (including retail and institutional investors)
seeking to transact on the Binance.US Platform.

[schuss]

Hadn't read the whole thing, but just saw this gem:
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...55220175978496

Quote from Chief Compliance Officer of Binance: "We are operating as a fking unlicensed securities exchange in the USA bro"

[4matic]

Just heard some very serious economists on NPR predict US inflation will be back to 3% by the end of the year. These were the same clowns who said inflation was transitory. LMAO

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

If inflation continues on current path it is and was transitory.

While Fed was clearly late raising rates they’ll be back fighting deflation soon enough. At that point it will be how much they can control the long end of the curve. The reason they are so hawkish now is that high rates long term make servicing federal debt a huge drag on the economy and more deflation.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Just got a Zillow report for our zip code. Prices down 11% over the past year. Fed needs to solve this deflation issue before it becomes embedded!

[byates1]

Hope you're kidding. Housing goes berserk and then drops 11 is slowly returning to reality.

The reality really.is that everything is a mirage.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Hope you're kidding. Housing goes berserk and then drops 11 is slowly returning to reality.

The reality really.is that everything is a mirage.

I’m saying that tongue in cheek. But over the past year my neighborhood had been dragging housing inflation towards negative.

[stalefish3169]

Inflation trend over the past 12 months:



Data is noisy, and subject to revisions (as part of the official process, as more complete data becomes available), but not at all crazy to expect the headline CPI to be at 3% by end of the year, since the trend line is there already.

Of course you won’t believe it when it happens, because you still won’t be able to afford the house you want.

The "official" inflation numbers are made the fuck up.

[skaredshtles]

The "official" inflation numbers are made the fuck up.

[stalefish3169]

If inflation continues on current path it is and was transitory.

While Fed was clearly late raising rates they’ll be back fighting deflation soon enough. At that point it will be how much they can control the long end of the curve. The reason they are so hawkish now is that high rates long term make servicing federal debt a huge drag on the economy and more deflation.

The US Government and Fed have backed themselves into a corner. They NEED inflation to wipe away the debt that some projections expect will hit 50 Trillion (!?!) dollars by the end of the decade.

You guys were all saying I was cray cray in 2020 when I stated inflation was about to blow up and go bananas. Inflation did go crazy. The Fed, Treasury, Executive Branch, and Congress all fucked up bigly. Most likely scenario is inflation is sticky and we have persistent inflation for the bulk of this decade.

[J. Barron DeJong]

The "official" inflation numbers are made the fuck up.

Well, I stand corrected.

You’re not going to wait for inflation to come in at 3% before not believing it.

I guess we all should just base inflation on what we’re personally experiencing. In which case, we’re heavily into deflation: My house is down! Gas is down! Food is cheaper!

HOW IS THE FED GOING TO PULL ME OUT OF MY DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL!?!

[J. Barron DeJong]

Most likely scenario is inflation is sticky and we have persistent inflation for the bulk of this decade.

People with a lot more money on the line than you are betting you are wrong:

[schuss]

The "official" inflation numbers are made the fuck up.

You know, not everything works like crypto...

[skaredshtles]

Well, I stand corrected.

You’re not going to wait for inflation to come in at 3% before not believing it.

I guess we all should just base inflation on what we’re personally experiencing. In which case, we’re heavily into deflation: My house is down! Gas is down! Food is cheaper!

HOW IS THE FED GOING TO PULL ME OUT OF MY DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL!?!

I laffed.

[skaredshtles]

<snip>Most likely scenario is inflation is sticky and we have persistent inflation for the bulk of this decade.

Please tell us, Nostradumbass - at what annualized rate do you see this "sticky" inflation being?

[stalefish3169]

You know, not everything works like crypto...

Cool. So I guess you're gonna pick up some new Apple VR Goggles for the whole family at $3500 a pop then?

[stalefish3169]

Well, I stand corrected.

You’re not going to wait for inflation to come in at 3% before not believing it.

I guess we all should just base inflation on what we’re personally experiencing. In which case, we’re heavily into deflation: My house is down! Gas is down! Food is cheaper!

HOW IS THE FED GOING TO PULL ME OUT OF MY DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL!?!

I don't know where you live. But on the West Coast, even with some modest decreases, houses are still well above their 2020 costs. And of course interest rates are several multiples higher, so actual affordability is out of reach for many. Gas here is slightly down, although that is probably mostly due to Uncle Joe emptying the strategic reserves at a historic rate. Food here is where I am feeling inflation the most; empirically I'd say it's running 20-30% YOY.

[bennymac]

Cool. So I guess you're gonna pick up some new Apple VR Goggles for the whole family at $3500 a pop then?

Wow what a checkmate move you just pulled

[skaredshtles]

Wow what a checkmate move you just pulled

He's obviously playing 4D Hungry Hungry Hippos.