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  1. #3376
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  2. #3377
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    This past weekend I haz reached target allocation for hodling. We're probably at a point now where new entrants face an increasingly uphill battle to be wholecoiners (owning >1btc). $10k BTC is much harder to accumulate than $4k BTC. Once it hits $100k there'll be very, very few both capable of and willing to take on the risk of buying an entire BTC.

    I'm of the view that this cycle terminates somewhere between $125k & $300k BTC. Good chance the next bear market has significant political churn of bans, attempted bans, etc. But it's tough to see that happening before BTC makes a move into trillion-dollar marketcapville. The social strain of watching neighbors get rich off something that has a degree of structural opacity that prevents understanding w/o substantial effort is going to drive the public insane with regret/jealousy/anger.

    public: You mean I get nothing unless I read and build knowledge? NO! I demand a seat at the table!
    btc: smell my mule

  3. #3378
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    Price oscillates around protocol demand, which is correlated to stock-to-flow. Scarcity & protocol utilization as the two foremost drivers of market prices over the long term.

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    https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/m...y-91fa0fc03e25

  4. #3379
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    Solid read.

    https://jameso.be/2019/08/24/bitcoin-is-for-this.html

    Starting in 2008, central banks injected an unprecedented amount of new money into the global financial system. Along with big gaps in wealth distribution, this has created profound systemic risk. The last few months have shown indications that this risk is starting to come to the surface.

    As I lay out the narrative I've watched unfold over the past few years, I'll occasionally interject with observations (formatted like this) on why I think Bitcoin is going to become increasingly important, even relative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. After reading a draft of this post, my brother lovingly dubbed this "the shill zone," and I don't disagree.

    It should be obvious, but as an explicit disclosure: I am long Bitcoin.

    The setup in front of us is not for a garden variety recession. It’s for potential cataclysm: a drawdown that will hit normal investors hard, but retirees and pensions especially so, threatening the premise of our financial system. This crash, or even just the threat of it, will lead our governments to take extraordinary action in an attempt to avert a long depression. That action will cause an incredible level of inflation.

    As I’ve watched the following events play out, some of the only optimism I feel is due to the emergence of Bitcoin as a nascent asset class. I see this new tool as one of the only potential safeguards that people in normal income brackets have against the kind of trouble I’m forecasting.

    Welcome to negative

    It’s an exceptional time in economics. Negative-yielding bonds have passed the $16 trillion mark for the first time ever. Germany’s flagship 30 year bond yield has gone negative, also for the first time in history....

  5. #3380
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    ^^nice, liked it as well.

    The thing is, almost nobody reads anymore. The autonomous movement of the nonthinking is a very real thing. People won't know it's time to reevaluate until asset prices slap them in the face. And by then it'll be too late.

  6. #3381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    ^^nice, liked it as well.

    The thing is, almost nobody reads anymore. The autonomous movement of the nonthinking is a very real thing. People won't know it's time to reevaluate until asset prices slap them in the face. And by then it'll be too late.
    Yeah, the pension section is nutz.

  7. #3382
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    paid out a bit, still stoked on luminary status.

  8. #3383
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    woah

  9. #3384
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    Coincidence? I THINK NOT!! Name:  xtinfoil.gif
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  10. #3385
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    BTC bears, please explain.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...mpression=true

    (Reuters) - A forgery crisis is quietly roiling the world's gold industry.

    Gold bars fraudulently stamped with the logos of major refineries are being inserted into the global market to launder smuggled or illegal gold, refining and banking executives tell Reuters. The fakes are hard to detect, making them an ideal fund-runner for narcotics dealers or warlords.

    Cont'd.

  11. #3386
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    ^^it's pretty silly in actuality. The 'counterfeit' gold is still 99.98% gold, just of unknown provenance.

  12. #3387
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    $1bln moved in a few mins for $697.61. High fee paid most likely to ensure it went in the next block, could be much lower.

    https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/44...208ce2ce09ed7d

  13. #3388
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    people need something to believe in.

    with value. interesting thread, w/o Satoshi Nakamoto


  14. #3389
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  15. #3390
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Precisely. Bitcoin is such a giant leap for money that it'll take 40 years to fully displace the legacy nonsense.

    It feeds on the host of bad decisions - amply supplied by the fiat markets.


  16. #3391
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    Gold has taken a couple thousand years so not sure if 40 is enough.

    That said...I bought a little. Goooo BTC!!
    Decisions Decisions

  17. #3392
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    Welcome

    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Gold has taken a couple thousand years so not sure if 40 is enough.
    True - it's probably silly to guess. I do think the internet's gradual absorption of commerce is a better analogy than gold though.

    Antonop: This isn’t about who adopts bitcoin first or who adopts cryptocurrencies first, because the internet is adopting cryptocurrencies, and the internet is the world’s largest economy. It is the first transnational economy, and it needs a transnational currency.

    https://www.goodreads.com/work/quote...ernet-of-money

  18. #3393
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    Quote Originally Posted by rayshow View Post
    I started with cryptocurrency as with a fascinating hobby. I was researching, reading from multiple resources (my favourite one was and still is cryptolinks ) to wrap my head around the entire crypto thing. Initially I was just ignoring the whole cryptocurrency hype and regretted cause early bitcoin adopters made fortunes, so I don't want to lose my another chance to get rich in a few years.
    Cool, I just wanted to buy drugz.

  19. #3394
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    Quote Originally Posted by rayshow View Post
    I started with cryptocurrency as with a fascinating hobby. I was researching, reading from multiple resources (my favourite one was and still is cryptolinks ) to wrap my head around the entire crypto thing. Initially I was just ignoring the whole cryptocurrency hype and regretted cause early bitcoin adopters made fortunes, so I don't want to lose my another chance to get rich in a few years.
    At least you're honest that it is just FOMO.

  20. #3395
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    I haven't read this yet but poasting this for perusal.

    Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2016-14, March 2016

    A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard

    by
    Warren E. Weber weweber@gmail.com Research Consultant, Bank of Canada
    Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
    Adjunct Professor, University of South Carolina

    https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-conte...swp2016-14.pdf

    Abstract
    This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Because the Bitcoin standard would closely resemble the gold standard, the paper explores the lessons about how it would perform by examining the classical gold standard period, specifically 1880–1913. The paper argues that because there would be virtually no arbitrage costs for international transactions, countries could not follow independent interest rate policies under the Bitcoin standard. However, central banks would still have some limited ability to act as lenders of last resort. Based on the experience during the classical gold standard period, the paper conjectures that there would be mild deflation and constant exchange rates under the Bitcoin standard. The paper also conjectures how long the Bitcoin standard might last if it were to come into existence.

  21. #3396
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    The sentiment cycle is a very real thing though you need to understand scale to use it effectively. 12/2017 was a blowoff top on the weekly while 6/26 was a blowoff top on the ~4hr timeframe. bitcoin needs probably a month or two of sideways consolidation between 8k and 12k.
    We're +2.5 months into consolidation and I think it is done going sideways +/- a day or few. BTC volatility is quite low and should go up substantially in the next 2-4 weeks. My bias is obviously up mid/long term.

    reference price, 10,247usd. Expecting $20k this year but it's a market run by humans so who knows.

  22. #3397
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  23. #3398
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    I slogged through Mark Carney's recent Jackson speech and it had some interesting stuff relevant to btc.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...ark-carney.pdf

    Long term: Changing the Game

    "ultimately, a multi-polar global economy requires a new IMFS to realise its full potential"

    Transition to RMB + USD system would be problematic if history is a guide. Best to have monopoly or multi-polar setup.

    "the relatively high costs of domestic & cross border electronic payments are encouraging innovation, with new entrants applying new tech to offer lower cost, more convenient retail payment services."

    "it is an open question whether such a new Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC) would be best provided by the public sector [...] Even if the initial variants of the idea prove wrong, the concept is intriguing."

    "It is worth considering how an SHC in the IMFS could support better global outcomes, given the scale of the challenges of the current IMFS and the risks in transition to a new hegemonic reserve currency like the Renminbi."

    "An SHC could dampen the domineering influence of the US Dollar on global trade .. shocks in the US would have less potent spillovers through exchange rates, & trade would become less synchronised across countries."

    "Widespread use of the SHC in int'l trade & finance would [...] encourage EMEs to diversify their holdings of safe assets away from the dollar. This would lessen the downward pressure on equilibrium interest rates & help alleviate the global liquidity trap."

    "by leveraging the MoE role of a reserve currency, an SHC might smooth the transition that the IMFS needs."

    "[in the last 20 years] the deficiencies of the IMFS have become increasingly potent. Even a passing acquaintance w monetary history suggests that this centre won't hold."

  24. #3399
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  25. #3400
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    ^^nice, liked that

    and more fodder for teh peeple

    https://twitter.com/yassineARK/statu...55663128944641

    (side note: the author is this dude's pop)

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