Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[4matic]

but what about their commercial paper?

Lol.. don’t ask. I own a CEF with commercial paper and it got hammered today. Related?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Tether cracking?

It’s not supposed to do this?

[4matic]

I don’t know much about it but that’s a big dent even in the long term chart.

Yellen was pretty serious about this in her testimony. I guess I’m glad she cares about people losing money but it’s not like they weren’t warned. Glad the MC banks largely stayed away.

[dunfree]

Lol.. don’t ask. I own a CEF with commercial paper and it got hammered today. Related?

there’s actual commercial paper there

[4matic]

Terra reminds me of the LTCM collapse in 1998. It was a math based options system (Black-Scholes) that got unraveled.

[bennymac]

any hot tips on what unstable coins I should be buying up?

[RootSkier]

{kermit sipping tea.gif}

[dunfree]

any hot tips on what unstable coins I should be buying up?

Wouldn’t the dipshits have to figure out yield first?

[Flyoverland Captive]

I’m crypto-curious, so I opened an eToro account with $300 just to play around and learn a bit. I bought four cryptos the day before it all shit the bed. After jumping from a couple sinking ships to different also-sinking ships, I’m down about $95. Hodl at his point, I guess. I generally invest in growth, but this roller coaster is way too volatile for my tastes.

[bennymac]

Apparently we’re supposed to feel overwhelming sympathy for those who have lost big - but then simultaneously we’re supposed to put on a brave face and call this just a cleanse. Law of the jungle but also let’s be extra sensitive to those who put it all on black and now have a lambo lease they can’t pay for.

Real people lost real money on some not so real things. That’s not celebrating losses - that’s pointing out that the majority of emperors have no clothes on.

If you think it’s those of us pointing that out that are most deserving of criticism here you are delusional.

[dunfree]

Staledildo is too busy combining his slurp juices on apes, give him space

[BmillsSkier]

Apparently we’re supposed to feel overwhelming sympathy for those who have lost big - but then simultaneously we’re supposed to put on a brave face and call this just a cleanse. Law of the jungle but also let’s be extra sensitive to those who put it all on black and now have a lambo lease they can’t pay for.

Real people lost real money on some not so real things. That’s not celebrating losses - that’s pointing out that the majority of emperors have no clothes on.

If you think it’s those of us pointing that out that are most deserving of criticism here you are delusional.

I doubt Bobby Stainless deals with cryptobros and their Lambo leases, but I’d like to hear him weigh in on a first person perspective from the field.

[byates1]

Eb tucker is kind of hilarious. He has some good points



Mostly gold talk and current events.

[stalefish3169]

Catch the falling knife! Buy opportunities all around!

We come for the bagholder bingo. My entire card has almost been filled out over the last month. Stale just gave me the "fundamentals are unchanged" square.

Attachment 258930

Charts been working on BTC. Almost too well. When there are are no fundamentals you have to rely on the technicals. I’ll follow anything you can chart..and have an opinion on it.

Top of support is $3200. Momentum through there takes you to $1100.

Friday and Saturday are notorious for bear raiding the BTC.

Today has strong page 91 vibes. Literally the same bunch of people are in here acting pompous af, like they nailed it by claiming BTC was dead years ago, after which it rallied 20x from the bottom.

BTC hash rate just hit all time high. Tick tock, next block.

Make with that information what you will.

[4matic]

What’s pompous about my post? Never said dead. Fwiw, the chart now, to me, looks like we go back to March 2020. Maybe the previous high at $20k. I suppose you could use fib numbers or moving averages.

[stalefish3169]

What’s pompous about my post? Never said dead. Fwiw, the chart now, to me, looks like we go back to March 2020. Maybe the previous high at $20k. I suppose you could use fib numbers or moving averages.

To be fair, you're one of the more polite bears.

I said a little bit ago I didn't think 30k was going to hold and BTC was eventually headed to 200 week MA. But that was before the LUNA/UST black swan. So we'll see. I still think BTC goes much much higher over the coming years.

[J. Barron DeJong]

To be fair, you're one of the more polite bears.

I said a little bit ago I didn't think 30k was going to hold and BTC was eventually headed to 200 week MA. But that was before the LUNA/UST black swan. So we'll see. I still think BTC goes much much higher over the coming years.

I don’t believe this is the appropriate use of term ‘black swan’.

[stalefish3169]

I don’t believe this is the appropriate use of term ‘black swan’.

A top 10 crypto by market cap went to zero almost immediately with plenty of contagion. I'd say that exceeds six standard deviations.

[4matic]

I’m a bear on most things. Income investor.

[4matic]

The entire value of all Stable Coins is $175b. The stock market has lost trillions in value so not that big a macro deal if they collapse.

[J. Barron DeJong]

A top 10 crypto by market cap went to zero almost immediately with plenty of contagion. I'd say that exceeds six standard deviations.

Huh. I’d say a crypto going to zero, as many very thoughtful people predicted it would right from the start, disqualifies it from being a black swan event.

But I guess if you can’t predict the exact timing and method of the unraveling, can you really say you were able to predict anything at all?….

ETA:

By the way, Nassim Taleb, who is the one who coined the term ‘black swan’ as it relates to financial events described it thus:

• Is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown
• Has a catastrophic impact when it does occur
• Is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable

[stalefish3169]

I’m a bear on most things. Income investor.

Seems like an odd strategy over a massively long bull run, but more power to you I guess if it makes you money.

[stalefish3169]

Huh. I’d say a crypto going to zero, as many very thoughtful people predicted it would right from the start, disqualifies it from being a black swan event.

But I guess if you can’t predict the exact timing and method of the unraveling, can you really say you were able to predict anything at all?….

ETA:

By the way, Nassim Taleb, who is the one who coined the term ‘black swan’ as it relates to financial events described it thus:

• Is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown
• Has a catastrophic impact when it does occur
• Is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable

Lots of cryptos fade off into irrelevancy over a period of months to years. For a top 10 crypto to do it in matter of days is exceedingly rare. The closest analog is Bitconnect from 2018. But that was an order of magnitude or two smaller.

I hate to break it to you, but almost every fiat currency eventually goes to zero as well.

[4matic]

In 2008 major banks went to zero in days. 460 banks failed

[J. Barron DeJong]

Lots of cryptos fade off into irrelevancy over a period of months to years. For a top 10 crypto to do it in matter of days is exceedingly rare. The closest analog is Bitconnect from 2018. But that was an order of magnitude or two smaller.

I hate to break it to you, but almost every fiat currency eventually goes to zero as well.

I’m -predicting- we’re all going to find out that ‘top 10 cryptos’ fading into irrelevance isn’t exceedingly rare at all.