Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[LeeLau]

The carton credit business is built on polluters buying themselves green. How is right to wash your dirty business by buying "green credits" from, for example, someone in the Northeast Kingdom of VT that owns 2000 acres of forestland?
Carbon surveyors walk properties to inventory tree size/species makeup to determine how much carbon is sequestered therefore giving owners an amount of "credit" to sell to polluters.
None of this eliminates any carbon entering the atmosphere.[period] What it does is lines the pockets of brokers who came up with this "product". Landowners get money for nothing other than what their asset already produces. But the planet is defiantly getting scammed.
There might be some land that is saved from development, but the reality is most of this land isn't at risk of being cut to provide housing to families looking for a home.
Tying it to some crypto is just icing on the cake.

Thanks VT, simple and others. I live and work in a carbon tax regime and have worked with others in cap & trade. Valid criticisms though.

Fwiw there are some standard setting bodies (Verified Carbon Units etc) but they aren't strong and not all-encompassing. That the sector is prone to abuse and green washing is true

[neckdeep]

Keep in mind any global reserve asset is tied to proof of work.

Gold silver oil BTC. All derive value from work/scarcity.

BTC is far different from exotic far flung crypto projects and digital pictures
.

So, if BTC is comparable to those commodities then why isn't it performing like them. You see, real commodity based stocks and BTC have been tracking in opposite directions because those things are real and BTC is just imaginary nerd gold. Here's the difference: remove the supply of a real commodity from the global economy and its absence has an impact. Remove crypto and all that happens is sad investors. BTC performs like a valuable commodity only in times of easy money, apparently.

[byates1]

Uhh, BTC has out performed everything. BTC is up 300% or more in the last 2 years.

[skaredshtles]

The only thing I know about carbon is traders hitting the bong.

[neckdeep]

Uhh, BTC has out performed everything. BTC is up 300% or more in the last 2 years.

BTC performs like a commodity in times of easy money. Now that money is getting tight, its performing in the opposite way commodities do. Great for the folks 2 years ago but your advice taken 6 months ago and BOOM down 50%. Meanwhile, a real commodity producer like XOM is up 50% and paying a dividend. But, I imagine a real crypto genius like yourself saw that a mile away and has a couple extra new lambos to show for it. Buy the dip!

[LeeLau]

BTC performs like a commodity in times of easy money. Now that money is getting tight, its performing in the opposite way commodities do. Great for the folks 2 years ago but your advice taken 6 months ago and BOOM down 50%. Meanwhile, a real commodity producer like XOM is up 50% and paying a dividend. But, I imagine a real crypto genius like yourself saw that a mile away and has a couple extra new lambos to show for it. Buy the dip!

XOM vs crypto. A weird article but owning both makes me both happy and sad

https://www.cryptocurrencieschannel....bil-vs-crypto/

[CarlMega]

BTC performs like a commodity in times of easy money.

This is my belief. Crazy easy money days = outsized demand in crypto. Rough money days = corresponding abandonment to get liquid or firmer assets.

[neckdeep]

XOM vs crypto. A weird article but owning both makes me both happy and sad

https://www.cryptocurrencieschannel....bil-vs-crypto/

I mention it because the shills keep on insisting crypto is a commodity which is a fallacy. The analogy is a marketing device and a concept that really, really needs to be dragged out into the light of day and have a stake driven through its heart.

[LeeLau]

I mention it because the shills keep on insisting crypto is a commodity which is a fallacy. The analogy is a marketing device and a concept that really, really needs to be dragged out into the light of day and have a stake driven through its heart.

It's such a weird argument. Crypto is a yolo play. Treat it as such imo

[byates1]

We'll see over the next 10 years. I agree most of BTC's gains like all gains are a direct result of 5T of USD sprayed all over the place

I'm looking forward to things getting difficult and staying difficult.

If BTC in 10/15 years is 300/500k per, it's going to look like a quite the opportunity now. I'm taking that opportunity.

Remember I bought my first BTC at 230$. Second at 9000$. Now I'm just dca'ing. Pretty much have most of want I need for a speculative asset.

[neckdeep]

This is my belief. Crazy easy money days = outsized demand in crypto. Rough money days = corresponding abandonment to get liquid or firmer assets.

Well, that is a supply demand curve, I'll grant you that much. But, you are describing investor demand/tolerance for speculative risk. So answer me this: is there ever truly a shortage of speculative risk? Seems like there's always a plentiful supply of that and its the demand that rises and falls. There's never going to be a shortage of crypto. The demand is for a supply of easy money, is what you are basically saying. That doesn't sound sustainable or particularly productive.

When the last btc is mined, all that's going to happen is the marketing muscle moves on and the next generation scratches its head in bemusement over their parents obsession with an obsolete wasteful blockchain. Their world will have plenty of supply shortages of real things and too many billions of people demanding it. No one will care about fake shortages of imaginary digital goods.

[CarlMega]

Well, that is a supply demand curve, I'll grant you that much. But, you are describing investor demand/tolerance for speculative risk. So answer me this: is there ever truly a shortage of speculative risk? Seems like there's always a plentiful supply of that and its the demand that rises and falls. There's never going to be a shortage of crypto. The demand is for a supply of easy money, is what you are basically saying.

Agreed. I'm being critical of people who positively forecast crypto while it basically only existed in a period of easy money. No tests of durability. A speculative risk non-productive asset I guess.

Everyone looks good while they are winning.

[4matic]

What’s the market cap of all crypto minus BTC? I’m assuming that will go to 10% of what it is now. It will be rolling blowups like ARKK stocks. As money exits the trash some of what’s left will flow into BTC so it could hold up.

JPM analysts don’t speak for the company as a whole. Just because one analyst has a gold/btc formula is not a portfolio endorsement. Dimon said if enough customers want it they’ll trade it but they offer no custody service. Like I said, if the customers want to trade marbles they’ll make a market in marbles

[stalefish3169]

/thread


https://twitter.com/Janinho_Sao/stat...UYUG3eCfA&s=19

[neckdeep]

/thread


https://twitter.com/Janinho_Sao/stat...UYUG3eCfA&s=19

In other words, there's not much difference between a moron who got lucky and the guy who thinks making some money off crypto means he is MENSA material.

[J. Barron DeJong]

/thread


https://twitter.com/Janinho_Sao/stat...UYUG3eCfA&s=19

So you’re the one off on the left there?

On this chart, I’m hanging out with that dude (gal?) in the hood, but don’t own crypto, so seems like it could be inaccurate?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Keep in mind any global reserve asset is tied to proof of work.

Gold silver oil BTC. All derive value from work/scarcity.

BTC is far different from exotic far flung crypto projects and digital pictures

Also keep in mind that printing 5T, increasing the M2 by 40% is the greatest ponzi of all, and is responsible for the pain we are starting to feel.

I guess it’s time to remind everyone again that M1/M2/M3 is not a measure of inflation.

M2 has increased by a factor of 3.95 over the past 20 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

CPI has increased by probably around 1.6 (latest numbers are still from 2021)

Which of those measures seems more correct?

(Hint: In 2002 a new Honda Accord ranged in price from $15,500 to $25,300. Is a loaded 2022 Accord closer to $40,500 or $99,900?)

[stalefish3169]

BTC gets its value from being the most powerful computing network in history with a distributed ledger anyone can access and verify.

Meanwhile, convicted fraudster Christine, just smiles awkwardly and tells everyone a reduction of the ECB's balance sheet will come in due course.

Choose wisely.


https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status...l-2LRh1xA&s=19



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[stalefish3169]

So you’re the one off on the left there?

On this chart, I’m hanging out with that dude (gal?) in the hood, but don’t own crypto, so seems like it could be inaccurate?

If warning everyone a year before anyone in this thread that inflation was going to spiral out of control puts me on the dumb side, then I'm guilty as charged. Good thing team transitory is bringing us down safely for a soft landing.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[schuss]

BTC gets its value from being the most powerful computing network in history with a distributed ledger anyone can access and verify.

Meanwhile, convicted fraudster Christine, just smiles awkwardly and tells everyone a reduction of the ECB's balance sheet will come in due course.

Choose wisely.


https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status...l-2LRh1xA&s=19



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Remind me what else you can do with a BTC other than hold it for value. The electricity is gone, unlike the barrel of oil.

[J. Barron DeJong]

If warning everyone a year before anyone in this thread that inflation was going to spiral out of control puts me on the dumb side, then I'm guilty as charged. Good thing team transitory is bringing us down safely for a soft landing.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Yeah, but it wasn’t a given that inflation was going to be high, and the market still expects inflation to be low on average over the next five years; now 2.28%. (And it been coming down over the last few weeks, so the opposite of spiraling.)

What were your thoughts on the Fed balance sheet after the Great Recession? Did you forecast inflation then, because the balance sheet expanded massively? If so, you were wrong.

I’d refer you to my post just upthread, the money supply, Fed balance sheet, etc. is not a measure of, or predictor of inflation.

[J. Barron DeJong]

BTC gets its value from being the most powerful computing network in history with a distributed ledger anyone can access and verify.

Meanwhile, convicted fraudster Christine, just smiles awkwardly and tells everyone a reduction of the ECB's balance sheet will come in due course.

Choose wisely.


https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status...l-2LRh1xA&s=19



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

The thing is, she’s right though….

[byates1]

This guy has, I believe, a reasonable take on what's up. Not shilling BTC.

[J. Barron DeJong]

This guy has, I believe, a reasonable take on what's up. Not shilling BTC.

Your idea of a ‘reasonable’ take is a guy advocating for a return to the gold standard? And on a video that starts out with this add, no less?:




JFC.

[byates1]

you listened to that? it's 40 min. jfc.

he is aware a return to a gold standard isn't likely. he is advocating for some sound money in your investments.

the current system we are living with is as laughable if not more than any nft project.

you think otherwise?