Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

[TahoeJ]

You've repeatedly said bitcoin is a way for you to make some easy money. That's fine. But to then turn around and lecture about ethical hypocrisy in favor of something whose killer app is ransonware and burning coal seems like the wrong hill to die on, doesn't it?

I’m not dying on any hill. Like I said I’m just in the game and recognize it for what it is. Not a believer, not a hater. Also not lecturing anyone, just calling out those who are!

[MultiVerse]

So you're a nihilist?

We aren’t going to sit here and pretend that most stock prices are connected to actual earnings and growth potential, right? I mean, sure, sort of sometimes, but plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise aside from the extremes of growth or failure. Mostly talking about all of the swings in between.

It’s all (mostly) speculation and gambling.

In the short run the stock market is a random walk, in the long run prices for the most part follow key fundamentals.

[4matic]

Buffett/Munger has said basically the same thing about gold. They earn nothing and therefore cost money to hold.

[TahoeJ]

So you're a nihilist?

Nope. Just care about the shit that actually matters.

Decades upon decades of destroying this planet and now bitcoin is the concern? Fuck that noise, it’s polishing brass on the Titanic.

[frorider]

Why not both?

[TahoeJ]

I care about the grid, not how the electricity is being used. As if one small aspect of that is the real problem. It’s a joke. It was a problem before crypto was a thing. It’s just short-sighted and looking past the real problem.

[pureantigravity]

If you told me that Bitcoin was destroying the planet but I had a 2% chance of winning a million Bitcoin bucks in the next year. Sorry planet. I'm in.
Not saying that's the depth of my depravity ....
BUT IT IS! LOL

[pureantigravity]

It all comes down to (1) what are the odds, and (2) how much does it cost to play. Any concerns about the environment will probably cause just mild cognitive dissonance. Even that can be assuaged by reading a few greenwashed articles and thinking about how I'm helping "bank the unbanked." The real problem is that people miscalculate #1 and #2. The odds aren't that good and the cost to play is both a complex equation and easy to underestimate.

[shera]

https://insights.glassnode.com/surve...2021-sell-off/
Concluding Summary
In this piece we have explored a number of metrics and indicators that describe the market structure before, during and after one of Bitcoin's most spectacular (and terrifying) sell-offs. In summary, there are a number of bull and bear cases which may be interpreted from the available data:

For the Bears
Institutional demand clearly softened from February and the resulting supply sink/squeeze was largely dissipated.
The balance on exchanges has increased meaningfully resulting in large volumes of coins and overhead supply that must now be re-accumulated.
Stablecoin prices leading into the Coinbase listing suggested distribution was underway and old hands were spending immediately prior to the sell-off.
A huge volume of short term holders remain underwater, and long term holder unrealised gains are on a historical knifes edge coincident with past bear markets.
For the Bulls
Institutional products GBTC and the Purpose ETF are showing signs of recovery despite collapsing prices providing early signs of renewed institutional interest.
Whilst exchange balances have increased, a more nuanced view indicates a difference between US-regulated and offshore exchanges. There may be a jurisdictional bias at play.
Stablecoin prints have expanded dramatically creating the largest crypto-native dollar buying power on the sidelines in history.
The majority of selling appears to have been short term holders, whilst long term holders appear to have bought the dip with increasing conviction.
Few have made the claim that HODLing Bitcoin was easy, and for many, the volatility seen last week is all part of the ride. What is clear is that the sell-off was of a significant scale, and a large volume of buyers are currently underwater. How the market recovers from here will no doubt be a test of market conviction amidst what continues to be a favourable macro backdrop for digital scarcity.

[Benny Profane]

https://investoramnesia.com/2021/05/...nia-chicanery/

[subtle plague]

My safety deposit box full of conflict diamonds is gonna be my lifeboat.

Until Leonardo di Caprio comes along.

Well at least they can't be tweeted away.

[Bushwacka]

Is ADA the only coin up in the past month? If you ignore the pump and dump.

it has had a nice little gain today and coinbase is claiming 77 percent buys in the last 24 hour probably not to late to get in on the slide at 8:40 eastern. I own a bunch......and quite honestly for the better part of the last 2 years I have been an APE slide trading with no real understanding of what I was doing so does someone want to explain staking to me like I was 10? at least in the terms of Cardano.....

I am long on ADA, not slide trading it only anymore. Also do not take any advice from me ever.

[Benny Profane]

So, bitcoin is essentially trying to replace the 100 dollar bill in illicit transactions?

Krugman Wonks Out: The Greenback Rules. So What? https://nyti.ms/2TpXhFz

[Name Redacted]

Have they figured out how to tightly roll up a bitcoin yet? Didn't think so.

[TahoeJ]

That’s a new form coming soon. Blowcoin.

[pureantigravity]

https://investoramnesia.com/2021/05/...nia-chicanery/

That South Sea Bubble chart looks like it would fit perfectly over the 2020-2021 Bitcoin chart.

[Bunion 2020]

That’s a new form coming soon. Blowcoin.

[shera]

https://twitter.com/edcarpenter20/st...84563267981312

[pureantigravity]

https://twitter.com/edcarpenter20/st...84563267981312

Clearly not a cult.

[pureantigravity]

https://twitter.com/CryptoWhale/stat...69233086009346

Ironically, just like he said in that video was what actually happened last cycle. I am 3 degrees separated from a Silicon Valley couple that mortgaged two of their homes in San Francisco to buy BTC when it was at $16K in 2017-18. They lost both homes in the end after buying the dips down past $8K and then selling at a loss to save losing even more. People like Saylor actually encourage this. I don't feel sorry for anyone with 2 homes in SF. But still, their losses didn't go to buy toilets for van lifers. They went to the pockets of the whales running the tape.

[4matic]

Bitcoin car takes the lead!

[TahoeJ]

https://twitter.com/CryptoWhale/stat...69233086009346

Ironically, just like he said in that video was what actually happened last cycle. I am 3 degrees separated from a Silicon Valley couple that mortgaged two of their homes in San Francisco to buy BTC when it was at $16K in 2017-18. They lost both homes in the end after buying the dips down past $8K and then selling at a loss to save losing even more. People like Saylor actually encourage this. I don't feel sorry for anyone with 2 homes in SF. But still, their losses didn't go to buy toilets for van lifers. They went to the pockets of the whales running the tape.

Welp, I'm sure they're absolutely kicking themselves now for not committing to the long game (which wasn't really that long). You either have to commit and prepare for the swings if you're going to make a move like that, or don't.

It's like counting cards at blackjack. I'll never sit down at a table with less than $2-3k so if I lose some larger hands when the odds were stacked in my favor, I'm committed to the count and maintain my bets accordingly. I have friends who will play with me and mimic my betting... and so many times those who start to back off after a loss end up losing money, while those who stick with it and remain consistent win. (not always, but more often than not. point is, you have to have the stomach for it or you shouldn't play)

[pureantigravity]

Welp, I'm sure they're absolutely kicking themselves now for not committing to the long game (which wasn't really that long). You either have to commit and prepare for the swings if you're going to make a move like that, or don't.

It's like counting cards at blackjack. I'll never sit down at a table with less than $2-3k so if I lose some larger hands when the odds were stacked in my favor, I'm committed to the count and maintain my bets accordingly. I have friends who will play with me and mimic my betting... and so many times those who start to back off after a loss end up losing money, while those who stick with it and remain consistent win. (not always, but more often than not. point is, you have to have the stomach for it or you shouldn't play)

True. You can't play short in a long con. But still, would you have stayed in the game from $20K to $15K to $13K to $10K to $8K and then $5K and then even lower than $4K? That's what happened and so many folks posting Buy the Dip memes all the way down for 2 years. You would have held after 2 years even with reports coming out that 'Blockchain Enterprise Really Sucks'? Look when this thread ran dry - after the first 3 dips. It is easy to say 'play the long game'. A lot harder in real life. And then what if you really intend to play the long game but ... something happens in your life (marriage/divorce/children/sickness/jobloss)? I AGREE with what you are saying. The biggest mistake was obviously putting too much on that bet and then realizing it too late. Oh, and buying the dips (throwing good money after bad money). If they had gone with 5% max of their unleveraged wealth (i.e. not lines of credit or emergency funds) they could have stayed in the game till now and ... been rich. Oh wait. They were rich. LOL. Oh well, gotta distribute wealth somehow! They were up 25% in a matter of 2 weeks. They should have cashed out and left the 25% gains in and let it be. They got greedy.

[TahoeJ]

Would I have stuck with it? Only if I was feeling extremely confident in the long play... otherwise I wouldn't have done it in the first place. I guess that's my point, you have to make your moves with conviction and not just bail on them, otherwise don't make the move at all. Michael Burry in The Big Short is a great example.

That's why I brought up counting cards. If you do it and bet properly, you essentially become the house, flipping the odds in your favor. So if you play long enough, you'll win. But you can't bitch out. And sometimes you'll leave town a loser, but 2/3 or 3/5 of the time you'll leave ahead. Plus, if it's Vegas, for example, even when you lose you get a lot of stuff comped.

[Bushwacka]

Would I have stuck with it? Only if I was feeling extremely confident in the long play... otherwise I wouldn't have done it in the first place. I guess that's my point, you have to make your moves with conviction and not just bail on them, otherwise don't make the move at all. Michael Burry in The Big Short is a great example.

That's why I brought up counting cards. If you do it and bet properly, you essentially become the house, flipping the odds in your favor. So if you play long enough, you'll win. But you can't bitch out. And sometimes you'll leave town a loser, but 2/3 or 3/5 of the time you'll leave ahead. Plus, if it's Vegas, for example, even when you lose you get a lot of stuff comped.

Honestly anyone who gives me advice and doesnt tell me about their loses I am skeptical of.

The entire goal is to win and not get greedy. The reality is if you good you can legit make an insane return with just slide trading I started with 700 dollars 4 years ago and Lost 20k during the dip, but the fact I had 20k to lose and its hurt but did not even come close to sinking me is just how good the last couple years to someone with no experince and just an autistic mind watching patterns can do.

and actually sold most things off 3 days before the Dip into Tether means that I am actually up from prior to the dip and the crash actually helped me. I know longer mess with Bitcoin because it is not volatile enough.

if you slide/day trade and you get lucky and get that 20 percent return in day and choose to keep it, IMO watch it like hawk or put it back into Tether or any of the Gold backed crypto(actually with the 10 percent inflation rate right now those Gold based coins are a solid non risky bet.) Long story short is I built sizable capital from making a couple hundred of dollars a day many times for many year and some days I lost lots, but with to me that original 700 dollars was money I could afford to loose, and beside some of the minor withdraws I have made all the capitol from it is monopoly money and until its millions of dollars Ill continue to drive my 2k shit box and live like I make 40k a year. I literally checked coinbase/crypto like 20 times today.......but I have learn that inaction is best unless you really see something happening to many time people fall into "bear" trap like that poor couple from SF.........