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  1. #4101
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    You should ask the technoking
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  2. #4102
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    I believe Doge has an unlimited supply so it's not a very good hedge against inflation compared to something already more scarce that has no choice but to stop being created.

  3. #4103
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    Even though there are some clear differences from 2017, this market still feels tremendously small and just as nave. New investors with possibly even more $$$ than 2017 adopters still largely have 0 interest in learning tech or the differences between these coins and protocols. The narrative is this idiotic Berkshire Hathaway message that ETH and BTC are trying to be the same thing, when that could not be more of a lie.

    When the above, ETC and Doge is true, I can't help but get the impression we are still very early as investors. At some point the shit will need to be separated from the gold and we will have a different cycle, but that's hardly happening now. You definitely see some benefits of great ideas like staking/ada but that is not the norm or main driver of this action. Even most people who own ADA are probably too lazy or don't understand how to take 10 minutes to stake.

    Is anyone more familiar with the 90/00s investment waves? I feel like it's usually described as one huge bubble but there had to have been multiple waves that could possibly tell us something.

    Ultimately I get the impression that the crypto powers that be are running the same fkn playbook on us because there's so much new money that people can't help but make the same mistakes. Ultimately, some late adopter will find BTC more attractive at 100K than they did at 65K just like I found it easier to buy at 15K than 3K in 2017. And they will feel more need to buy as the price goes up. People cannot help themselves.

  4. #4104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaaarrrp View Post
    I believe Doge has an unlimited supply so it's not a very good hedge against inflation compared to something already more scarce that has no choice but to stop being created.
    Your other, long, post is a nice and even mostly "consensus" viewpoint in the space. I liked it.

    I think you mentioned the summer of 2017 in there? I've been studying btc price action during that time and I wonder if we are having similar behavior. You can see a long sideways period and then a fat wick down. I have buy orders between 40-47k for that sort of event. But some people are saying that will break the weekly average support and put us out of a bull run. What do you think about that? Personally I don't even care if we have long sideways/down, remember the early runup we had in 2019 - BTC does what it wants!

    edit, here's a chart comparing now with summer 2017:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by shera; 05-12-2021 at 08:45 AM.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  5. #4105
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    As far as Doge and NFTs and even defi with eth fees through the roof, I'm not getting distracted and blowing this way and that with the wind. There are like 9000 altcoins and I don't have time in the day for it. Also I went through 2018 and the whitepaper scams. I need to see a real product with a real use case and a moat/first mover advantage and of course liquidity. BTC, ETH, and LINK is all I'm really bothering with. It took me quite a while to understand the value of LINK.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  6. #4106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaaarrrp View Post
    I believe Doge has an unlimited supply so it's not a very good hedge against inflation compared to something already more scarce that has no choice but to stop being created.
    Scarcity is a two way street. Something that's censorship resistant and a better alternative to hyperinflation even if it's volatile has a good value proposition. As a practical matter however such a system can’t really survive in that niche alone because it needs a huge transaction volume to endure.

  7. #4107
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Scarcity is a two way street. Something that's censorship resistant and a better alternative to hyperinflation even if it's volatile has a good value proposition. As a practical matter however such a system can’t really survive in that niche alone because it needs a huge transaction volume to endure.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKp3Hx4SFV0

    I think Michael Saylor makes a good argument for something like Bitcoin being adopted as extremely long term wealth preservation/storage of assets.

  8. #4108
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Your other, long, post is a nice and even mostly "consensus" viewpoint in the space. I liked it.

    I think you mentioned the summer of 2017 in there? I've been studying btc price action during that time and I wonder if we are having similar behavior. You can see a long sideways period and then a fat wick down. I have buy orders between 40-47k for that sort of event. But some people are saying that will break the weekly average support and put us out of a bull run. What do you think about that? Personally I don't even care if we have long sideways/down, remember the early runup we had in 2019 - BTC does what it wants!
    Thanks! It is hard to say. In many ways, I have my eye more on the ETH-BTC chart than anything. If my idea about the flippening being an essential part of the cycle is correct, something like the following would occur:

    ETH continues it's upward ascension, likely in price and ETH-BTC value. At point when the ETH-BTC value is inflated, BTC will pickup some more steam and they will be more equally competing. Money will be pouring into both because of the perceived ETH flip and competitive buying.

    Soon after-possibly with both at all time highs-both take a long break or much more gradual climb. The prices you mention would not shock me because crypto is so fkn volatile. That said, I'm not sure the greed would allow it to dive too far down for too long since so many crazedriven altcoins require BTC or ETH to buy or move thru the space.

    I keep having to remind myself that we COULD be in the Dec/Jan part of the last cycle. But then I look at the total market cap, the lack of knowledge out there and the belief there is a ton of new investor money on the cusp and feel so bullish. The last stimulus was more the entire crypto market cap.

  9. #4109
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    Your video misses the point. In order for BTC to last for centuries or millennia as Michael Saylor claims the network has to maintain its hashrate. Previous discussion here, here, and here.

    You can't ever let the hashrate stop with BTC. If you're talking about centuries or millennia or longer then gold is an infinitely more efficient store of value because once it's mined, unlike BTC, it no longer requires additional mining to survive.

  10. #4110
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Your video misses the point. In order for BTC to last for centuries or millennia as Michael Saylor claims the network has to maintain its hashrate. Previous discussion here, here, and here.

    You can't ever let the hashrate stop with BTC. If you're talking about centuries or millennia or longer then gold mining is an infinitely more efficient store of value because once it's mined, unlike BTC, it no longer requires additional mining to survive. You can't ever let the hashrate stop with BTC.
    I will need to do more investigation on the explanations for the BTC end game processing support system. I can't help but wonder if you watched the entire thing since you replied before that would even be possible and there's even a part 2.

    Even though I am in technologies such as Hashgraph because I believe in them, it seems like the ability for BTC to adapt to new technologies and require less power to be useful is very underestimated. I also think it's unknowable what sort of support structure big players would willingly setup at costs to preserve an asset class that has so much widespread popularity. I also think it's possible BTC could create some pseudo side chain that further protects and props up the space. Do people underestimate the necessity for bitcoin for other protocols to operate and how these and other players might take part or incur costs to continue it's existence?

    I love gold but what happens when we reach some level of space exploration where gold is now commonplace and cheap to obtain? In some ways I think of stuff like this as pipe dreams but then I look at everything around me and it seems like it's the people who created it that are claiming it will happen.

  11. #4111
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    If space exploration making gold commonplace is your concern then can I interest you in a Mars coin?

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  12. #4112
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    It's not a concern. It's just a possibility I am happy to entertain, even if I think it's unlikely to happen anytime that affects my life.

    I see plenty of things around me that people have said for years couldn't be, even with loads of evidence to the contrary.

    Given what we don't know about tomorrow, I wouldn't state with any certainty that the life cycle of gold being a prized asset couldn't end before Bitcoin.

  13. #4113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaaarrrp View Post

    Is anyone more familiar with the 90/00s investment waves? I feel like it's usually described as one huge bubble but there had to have been multiple waves that could possibly tell us something.
    Yes. There were multiple waves with multiple themes. Some repetitive. Some one-time

  14. #4114
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    I will say if eth2.0 does not get a giant kick in the ass very quickly, there is going to be a lot of very very sore losers.

  15. #4115
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    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    I will say if eth2.0 does not get a giant kick in the ass very quickly, there is going to be a lot of very very sore losers.
    If you mean that it needs to be totally awesome, and on time (July), well, I dunno. I'm currently listening to a Lex Fridman interview with Vitalik and he is talking about the complexities of sharding and how this has never really been tried in crypto yet. And he is talking about how you can always just add an order of magnitude with any software estimate. The proof of stake chain is optional as I understand it, still figuring it out. And there are phases 0, 1, 2...

    Anyway, not trying to spread fud or anything, but it is just a big challenge. I'm rooting for them.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  16. #4116
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    If you mean that it needs to be totally awesome, and on time (July), well, I dunno. I'm currently listening to a Lex Fridman interview with Vitalik and he is talking about the complexities of sharding and how this has never really been tried in crypto yet. And he is talking about how you can always just add an order of magnitude with any software estimate. The proof of stake chain is optional as I understand it, still figuring it out. And there are phases 0, 1, 2...

    Anyway, not trying to spread fud or anything, but it is just a big challenge. I'm rooting for them.
    There are scores of devs that are just waiting to port to a different chain. Just sayin, the kick in the ass is real. Even if you need sub chains to shard, they need to make something happen soon or there will be a major shift in the network effect.

  17. #4117
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    I hear you.

    I used to worry about open source code and how anybody can just copy the code, and that happens all the time (look at binance). But it seems to always come with more centralization, sorry I don't have a ref for you off the top of my head. And don't forget that it works both ways - if some smaller community develops something interesting, it can always be integrated into the major players, whether btc, eth, link.

    We are so conditioned to a top-down human world that it is really hard to trust the process of open code and how do I say it, the egalitarianism and libertarianism of this new system. Peer to peer and open. I find it so compelling. This is still the wild west/new frontier and github is the only sheriff in town. That's what people on the outside don't see. Scary that Microsoft bought github, but that's a story for another day I suppose.

    Sorry for the woo woo.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  18. #4118
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    Unhappy

    Inflation up. BTC down.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  19. #4119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    Inflation up. BTC down.
    Think smarter, not harder stu. Big money pushing price down to crush longs, buy, extract, and hold.

    NFA, but dump some money in now and then post in _______ (pick a future time point).

  20. #4120
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    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  21. #4121
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    He was gifted $8 billion (50%) of the shit. Why wouldn't he dump it?



    It goes deeper: https://decrypt.co/70672/dogecoin-sp...n-dumps-tokens

  22. #4122
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    Take a look at BTC between June 12-Aug 5, 2017. It was a long period of stagnation that started right around the flippening peak.

    Is it possible that what we are experiencing now is that period, naturally occurring earlier in this cycle than the last because the flow of money enters ethereum/alts earlier than the 2017 run?

  23. #4123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaaarrrp View Post
    Take a look at BTC between June 12-Aug 5, 2017. It was a long period of stagnation that started right around the flippening peak.

    Is it possible that what we are experiencing now is that period, naturally occurring earlier in this cycle than the last because the flow of money enters ethereum/alts earlier than the 2017 run?
    Give up on the flip dude. You don't understand where the real money is parked and why.

  24. #4124
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    Why would we believe that "real money" controls the price when it's so clear public sentiment and things like the perceived flippening do drive the price in incredibly volatile ways? I'm not denying that there aren't people who could and do move prices but I don't think they need to engage in much disruption of an overall natural cycle of adoption that will make them loads of $.

  25. #4125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaaarrrp View Post
    Why would we believe that "real money" controls the price when it's so clear public sentiment and things like the perceived flippening do drive the price in incredibly volatile ways? I'm not denying that there aren't people who could and do move prices but I don't think they need to engage in much disruption of an overall natural cycle of adoption that will make them loads of $.
    Public sentiment only means shit for shitcoins.

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