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  1. #2976
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    Fair point--I was actually referencing PG's previous post. I thought they both referenced it but the first was explicitly about the mechanism of profiting from manipulation. I.e. not for accumulation, but because the futures markets net more profit than the manipulation costs. One of these is much more bullish than the other, wouldn't you say?

  2. #2977
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Fair point--I was actually referencing PG's previous post. I thought they both referenced it but the first was explicitly about the mechanism of profiting from manipulation. I.e. not for accumulation, but because the futures markets net more profit than the manipulation costs. One of these is much more bullish than the other, wouldn't you say?
    As the actions & motivations relate to one or a small set of participants, they're not bullish or bearish outside of a narrow time window. They're already noise just a few days out - except for those who were using leverage imprudently. Maybe the oldest past time for speculators with contacts is the game of identifying participants too far out over their skis & giving them a gentle push. Of course, having a modest position on the other side to profit in the event they should fall. The game is a few hundred years old. Call it regulatory arb in the bitcoin space. Its existence is pretty agnostic as far as the viability of bitcoin goes. It's just a speed bump for those looking to lever up.

  3. #2978
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    This scam could be agnostic, apart from the churn and the incentive for dishonesty in the market it provides. Like, who's stopping the market maker from "borrowing" (note the rebound) some BTC and using their inside knowledge of the futures market they've set up to rip off their so-called customers? The exchanges are the whales.

    The story you painted was not really agnostic, though, more indicative of buyers.

  4. #2979
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    This scam could be agnostic, apart from the churn and the incentive for dishonesty in the market it provides. Like, who's stopping the market maker from "borrowing" (note the rebound) some BTC and using their inside knowledge of the futures market they've set up to rip off their so-called customers? The exchanges are the whales.

    The story you painted was not really agnostic, though, more indicative of buyers.
    How is this bullish for underlying? A participant injects volatility to build a larger stake. Higher vol without a change to the destination just dilutes sharpe - it's not a bullish characteristic for a market to have. Not only that, the exercise has no bearing on the broader market, only the size of the participant's account. Back in the 1800s it sure as shit wasn't bullish for RR stock holders.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    Yeah, quick recovery. I'm reading a book about Jay Gould, a dude who used to duke it out with Vanderbilt in the 1860s. The trick back then for railroad owners was to short their own stock, organize a bear raid to push down the price, close shorts for a profit then use the profits and lower prices to then acquire ever-larger amounts of the underlying stock. Probably the same dynamic here. Scare away weak hands & build a bigger position.

  5. #2980
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    The case you highlight indicates a desire on the part of someone with lots of money to acquire a larger position: a buyer. I took "ever larger" to imply that this was an ongoing strategy to accumulate stock (or BTC in the present version), please correct if I got that wrong.

    OTOH, given your strategy it seems like it's not important unless it means something to you in terms of objectivity or something, right?

  6. #2981
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    The case you highlight indicates a desire on the part of someone with lots of money to acquire a larger position: a buyer. I took "ever larger" to imply that this was an ongoing strategy to accumulate stock (or BTC in the present version), please correct if I got that wrong.

    OTOH, given your strategy it seems like it's not important unless it means something to you in terms of objectivity or something, right?
    The bias is just as likely to be neutral as it is bullish. Rebuying a larger position could be an investment only in having a bigger lever to repeat the gambit. There's just a lot we don't know despite the certitude of that blog's author. The challenge for bitcoin is to overcome a few substantial hurdles in order to succeed in the mission of achieving a permanent chunk of the global SOV/reserve currency markets:

    1 - Downsides of decentralization & immaturity of the market [unexpected volatility & liquidity, ephemeral nature of investor preferences]
    2 - Opposition from central banks & the banks that own them as well as populists in office
    3 - Technical sabotage of the system or network

    Old school manipulation is preferable to other, legal things that happen every day in ES, NQ, RTY, YM, NKD, FTSE, DAX. So this past week has been a reinforcement of the volatility warning & not much else.

  7. #2982
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    This is something that concerns me. Again though, it's primarily a volatility risk and entirely off the primary network. The erosion of confidence is much more indirect and hard to predict, but it's potentially a factor on something of this scale.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitfinex

    A recurring pattern you see with the detractions is that they're peripheral & don't take away from the integrity of bitcoin itself. If that were to change, you'd see selling pressure in the network in some fashion if not in price directly. There's a lot of metadata that's public facing and can aid in tracking the heartbeat of bitcoin (also a point of differentiation with traditional markets).

  8. #2983
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    USD fundamentals continue to strengthen. As for Bitcoin, I don’t think it’ll ever be used outside of crypto scams because there’s too many people out there with too big a stake in the USD pyramid scheme. Just like how MLM schemes never seem to run out of fresh new fools, so will USD and FIAT in general always have a trickle of new naive greedy people who think they’ll get rich by having a properly diversified portfolio and investing in sound companies.
    Gravitas, Pietas, Dignitas, Virtus

  9. #2984
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    Least of all stock brokers...

    "I don't pretend to have all the answers, and I think there's something to be said for that" -One For The Road

    Brain dead and made of money.

  10. #2985
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    What/when will happen is anyone's guess.
    Last edited by puregravity; 05-23-2019 at 01:03 PM.
    Gravitas, Pietas, Dignitas, Virtus

  11. #2986
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    Quote Originally Posted by puregravity View Post
    What/when will happen is anyone's guess.
    Probably could've just said that.

    aka Speculation.
    "I don't pretend to have all the answers, and I think there's something to be said for that" -One For The Road

    Brain dead and made of money.

  12. #2987
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless View Post
    Probably could've just said that.

    aka Speculation.
    I don't think he follows the phrase it's better to be thought an idiot than open your mouth and remove all doubt.

  13. #2988
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    Regardless, at least crypto is helping hackers get value out of ransomware. https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/5/21...-young-hackers

  14. #2989
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    May 22, 2019, 05:50am
    Twitter's Jack Dorsey And Square Are Making Mass Bitcoin Adoption 'Inevitable'

    In March, Dorsey said Square would be hiring three or four bitcoin and cryptocurrency engineers and one designer to work full-time on "open source contributions to the bitcoin and crypto ecosystem," also promising to pay them in bitcoin if they wanted.

    Dorsey, who's previously said he thinks bitcoin is "likely" to become the internet's first native currency, revealed he's been buying a whopping $10,000 worth of bitcoin per week earlier this year and invested in a bitcoin and cryptocurrency hardware wallet to store his swelling bitcoin holdings.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/billyba.../#24a37f9c3a36

  15. #2990
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    Quote Originally Posted by frorider View Post
    Regardless, at least crypto is helping hackers get value out of ransomware. https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/5/21...-young-hackers
    BACKUPS BACKUPS BACKUPS. My company was recently hit by a ransonware attack. Took probably 3 days to restore everything, but we didnt pay a dime.
    http://www.firsttracksonline.com

    I wish i could be like SkiFishBum

  16. #2991
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    Hot-take: In the future it'll be rare to hear about an 'entire bitcoin' and much smaller units like bits & satoshis will be at a valuation that's compatible with every day transfers and price quotes. Halving of mining rewards from 12.5BTC to 6.25BTC happens next year. Supply growth dramatically slowing while the gap between legacy system trust & native electronic system trust narrows.

    Need some kind of ripple or ether to handle transactional volume if fiat is going to be displaced in everyday transactions, but the cat's out of the bag in terms of returning to a worldwide, SOV-based currency. It used to be specie which is much more efficient than fiat in terms of facilitating ww commerce... current system is a cluster**** of unecessary risk borne by international firms. Removal of currency risk from int'l commerce would be a yuge stabilizing force for enterprise accounting & thus ERP/overall strategy. Also would serve as a valuable feedback mechanism to hold irresponsible govts in check.

    Current f/x market is something like 80trln USD volume per year. And it adds no value. Just a logistical hurdle and critical risk that only exists to service floating fiat markets. It would be difficult to imagine a less efficient worldwide money management system than what currently exists. Rent-seeking galore...

    Click image for larger version. 

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  17. #2992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skidog View Post
    BACKUPS BACKUPS BACKUPS. My company was recently hit by a ransonware attack. Took probably 3 days to restore everything, but we didnt pay a dime.
    This. My last company got hit by ransomware on their NAS pretty hard (multiple *large* shares affected) - took about 8 hours to get things restored back to within 24 hours of the attack. People lost data, but it was only the changed/new data during the day of the attack.

    Management and executives hate spending money on data protection, though. A lot of companies are going to get burned HARD in the upcoming days/months/years, is my guess.

  18. #2993
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    dammit, get back up to 8k; so I can take my initial 4k out for the fourth time !
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  19. #2994
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    Quote Originally Posted by puregravity View Post
    USD fundamentals continue to strengthen. As for Bitcoin, I donít think itíll ever be used outside of crypto scams because thereís too many people out there with too big a stake in the USD pyramid scheme. Just like how MLM schemes never seem to run out of fresh new fools, so will USD and FIAT in general always have a trickle of new naive greedy people who think theyíll get rich by having a properly diversified portfolio and investing in sound companies.
    Blah blah blah blah it can't be used for anything. Name:  Screenshot_20190523-121622.jpeg
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    https://about.att.com/story/2019/att_bitpay.html

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  20. #2995
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalefish3169 View Post
    Blah blah blah blah it can't be used for anything. Name:  Screenshot_20190523-121622.jpeg
Views: 109
Size:  43.7 KB

    https://about.att.com/story/2019/att_bitpay.html

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app
    But why the fuck WOULD you use it to pay your AT&T bill?

  21. #2996
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    The 'there are only 21 Million' is irrelevant. First, the network can be forked ad-nauseam. Second, there are 10,000,000 Satoshi per BTC. That makes each Satoshi now worth $0.00075. If Bitcoin (the One True Original) were ever to supplant fiat, then at a price of about $1M per BTC, the Satoshi would be set too high for any small sub 2 cent transactions. That's fine in America but won't accommodate other countries with much finer currency needs. However, at $1M per BTC, the price is still too low in total worth because that only allows for a $15Trillion monetary system. So #1 It doesn't have to be inflationary, and #2 if it does, then just move to America.

    Personally, I prefer a Hawala system whereby TGR insiders control and monitor the supply of IBB (Imaginary Beanie Babies). No environmental issues (such as mining and equipment etc) and much faster transactions - even micro transactions as the TGR system will allow individual body parts of IBB to be traded. Say, you browse a paywalled content, just have the system deduct 1 or 2 eyeballs from your IBB balance. Fine control of transactions could be carried on down to the protein and molecular level.

    Satushi would be mortified that a cartel of extreme athletes fans are controlling world finances. It is still better than BTC for many reasons ... and Hawala systems are much more resilient to consensus attacks. Ever seen a money changer run out because of a 51% attack? I rest my case.
    Gravitas, Pietas, Dignitas, Virtus

  22. #2997
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    Quote Originally Posted by puregravity View Post
    The 'there are only 21 Million' is irrelevant. First, the network can be forked ad-nauseam. Second, there are 10,000,000 Satoshi per BTC. That makes each Satoshi now worth $0.00075. If Bitcoin (the One True Original) were ever to supplant fiat, then at a price of about $1M per BTC, the Satoshi would be set too high for any small sub 2 cent transactions. That's fine in America but won't accommodate other countries with much finer currency needs. However, at $1M per BTC, the price is still too low in total worth because that only allows for a $15Trillion monetary system. So #1 It doesn't have to be inflationary, and #2 if it does, then just move to America.

    Satushi would be mortified that a cartel of extreme athletes fans are controlling world finances. It is still better than BTC for many reasons ... and Hawala systems are much more resilient to consensus attacks. Ever seen a money changer run out because of a 51% attack? I rest my case.
    You're setting up this false choice where fiat transactions need to be replaced in order for btc to keep growing. The hurdle there is more firm anyhow: network throughput capacity. Bitcoin can't shoulder the burden of all fiat transactions on the primary network. If those were to become crypto-based transactions it would need to be either off-network on exchanges or on a more scalable network like ether or ripple. The price for these more volume-friendly units would be much more stable and function as less of a reserve than a cheap & easy to use utility.

    The table below shows USD values of different fractions based on a $1M valuation, which doesn't line up with what you noted above. BTC could scale up to $20 quadrillion* before the value of a mili-satoshi crossed 1c USD. But it wouldn't be used for small purchases due to transaction costs (remember throughput capacity of the primary network of bitcoin). If a coin goes over $250k or so I think it will be because it's being used as a reserve currency & SOV, with on-network transactions averaging ever-greater size. Think multi-nationals hedging f/x exposure by quickly converting daily/weekly/monthly revenue into something more manageable than ever-larger buckets of vulnerable local fiat. Or wealthy families looking to hedge traditional exposure with infrequent transactions. It can take whatever shape the market needs so long as a few limitations are respected. And the functional gaps can be filled by fiat or ~ether with easy convertibility back & forth.

    It's true bitcoin can be copied and replaced tomorrow in theory. As the barrier to entry is mostly effort and ingenuity, it's easy to disregard what's been built. But value is in the perception and for the last 10 years it has consistently been valued in a manner that sustains the virtuous cycle of miners supporting transfers and being paid in exchange. The moat in application is much larger than the theoretical one. Much like the 'interchangeable' protocol behind email, a major strength of bitcoin comes from this network effect.

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    *network, not coin price
    Last edited by Bromontane; 05-24-2019 at 12:04 AM.

  23. #2998
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    As a use case for the remittance market (foreign workers sending money to families) check this out...

    Yesterday I got a trezor to hold some btc. Sent some from my ledger to the trezor in <1min. Then sent a small amount back from the trezor to the ledger which is this transaction:

    https://blockstream.info/tx/9de82da7...3515e6eed94338

    details of my portion of that transaction:
    - 0.05 btc / or 50,000 bits / ~394 USD
    - transaction fee of 205.41 bits or $1.64 / 0.41%

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    Now, whether or not bitcoin itself can or will handle the remittance market in the future, this is a clear technological advance over Western Union's longer transfer times alongside fees upwards of 5, 10, 15, 30% that are charged to people that need to send money to families back home. Think Bangladeshi cab drivers in the middle east, Indian workers abroad, Central Americans working abroad & sending home money etc. Those people are habitually preyed upon by rent seeking in the current financial system. Once they realize how cheaply they can conduct these kinds of payments the user base is going to asplode for related coins. As adoption improves the trickle down into improved perceptions of bitcoin is inevitable, just a function of shifting international perceptions.

    internet is to communication as bitcoin is to money... liberalization & lower friction

  24. #2999
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    I haven't read much of this thread, because honestly, this is all Greek to me. The weird ways people make money are fascinating. I hope they do some good with it once in a while.

    So I work in the construction world. I sell mostly industrial and commercial electrical products. I am helping design a Bitcoin data mining data center right now. The biggest concern has been the max temps my products can handle. The products we are talking about move 200-400 amps, and have been tested at +70 C. We just made it within their specs. Any lower of a rating, and they would have had to use something else. This place will just be machines running, no AC, just servers. Most data centers I do, the huge expense is cooling. This place is just gonna run. I have no idea why these servers don't need to be cooled like other data centers, but I find it fascinating.

    They are now looking at running the servers in huge tanks filled with an antifreeze type solution so the heat dissipates into the liquid. No idea how this works, or how they do repairs (which is where my product comes into play), but it will be cool to see, if they let me in the door.

    All this to mine bitcoin 24/7. Must pay well.

  25. #3000
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    Quote Originally Posted by warthog View Post
    I haven't read much of this thread, because honestly, this is all Greek to me. The weird ways people make money are fascinating. I hope they do some good with it once in a while.

    So I work in the construction world. I sell mostly industrial and commercial electrical products. I am helping design a Bitcoin data mining data center right now. The biggest concern has been the max temps my products can handle. The products we are talking about move 200-400 amps, and have been tested at +70 C. We just made it within their specs. Any lower of a rating, and they would have had to use something else. This place will just be machines running, no AC, just servers. Most data centers I do, the huge expense is cooling. This place is just gonna run. I have no idea why these servers don't need to be cooled like other data centers, but I find it fascinating.

    They are now looking at running the servers in huge tanks filled with an antifreeze type solution so the heat dissipates into the liquid. No idea how this works, or how they do repairs (which is where my product comes into play), but it will be cool to see, if they let me in the door.

    All this to mine bitcoin 24/7. Must pay well.
    All for between 3 to 7 transactions per second worldwide. WeChat manages users accounts and purchases of all kinds for a Billion users per day and has no need for blockchain hype or the environmental wastefulness that comes from 'mining' operations. The irony is that the worlds most successful spending app, WeChat, does more business than any other payment app invented, with typical databases.

    Mother Earth breathes easier when the price drops because most mining operations shut down at those times due to unprofitability. Unfortunate unaware bagholders 'mining contracts' usually guarantee that mine founders get their money either way - even if the equipment goes in the garbage at the end of the day. Which is where it is going because they were offering mining equipment for free just a few months ago in China due to the lower prices for Bitcoin. And then there is the attrition due to technology. With new chip dies and chip tech, old miners become obsolete really fast. Just look on craigslist for last years stock or ask NVIDIA that saw a 79% decline in the market for mining equipment.

    edit: not just when the price goes down. When the price goes up, the network hashrate increases, causing existing miners to lose share. The obsolescence of mining equipment happens whether the price goes up or down.

    re: Satoshis per Bitcoin
    Bromo is right in that it is actually 100 Million Satoshis per Bitcoin and not 10 Million that I stated. That's still too small for automated micro payments, and also comes with a lengthy transaction lag and hefty transaction cost, and as stated, is not a real 'scarcity' since the Bitcoin database can be forked ad-nauseum as many have done and already profited from (Bitcoin SV, BCH, Bitcoin Diamond, etc. etc.). The scarcity argument requires people to dismiss the reality of CTRL C + CTRL V in the digital world.
    Last edited by puregravity; 05-24-2019 at 07:06 PM.
    Gravitas, Pietas, Dignitas, Virtus

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