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  1. #6326
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    It's almost like you think this is a negative sum game or something.
    Of course. It's a ponzi game. Not a Ponzi Scheme to be clear.

  2. #6327
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Of course. It's a ponzi game. Not a Ponzi Scheme to be clear.
    That is one of the better explanations of speculative manias I have read. Kudos.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

  3. #6328
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    Saifedean and PlanB, veritable titans, podcasting:
    The resilience of stock-to-flow with PlanB - https://saifedean.com/podcast/93-the...ow-with-planb/
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  4. #6329
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Not that I know of. Sidecoins, rollups, siloed protocols.... it's things like this that constantly remind me that "Web 3.0" is so very much in its infancy. Tomorrow I have to fund Shakepay, send Eth to Binance, bridge to Polygon to buy Matic, then convert to USDT and fund Metamask, then buy KlimaDAO, then stake it.

    ahhhh DeFi. It's like doing my first ever Redhat Linux install
    Truth…the first Ethernet card I bought came with source for a driver I had to compile to use the card. “Ahhh, that’s why it was cheaper than the brand names.” Have been looking at the source for BTC and last night the BitTorrent DHT and it feels familiar.

  5. #6330
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    That is one of the better explanations of speculative manias I have read. Kudos.
    I thought I'd expand on this. Early finance readings would say that Fed money printing was also a Ponzi Game but played over generations and the winners being the current and next generation but the lovers potentially being the future generation UNLESS one could (gradually) inflate money back so that future payments would) gradually become less and less meaningful. Obviously a dangerous macro game to play.

    edit to add a classic article https://www.jstor.org/stable/2526789

    If one is to extend that to crypto ( and I think its a stretch), then crypto and Web 3.0 and the various shifts it will trigger are more likely than other Ponzi games to persist over time and have more amplitude of money making (and conversely money destruction) potential. Viewed from the lens of Web 1.0 there are lots of lottery tickets. The payouts are bigger. The losses are distributed over a wider population because there are more participants.

    Viewed in this context crypto YOLOs are logical

  6. #6331
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Viewed in this context crypto YOLOs are logical
    Does this context preclude:

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    There will also be losers. Reality says more and bigger than the winners.
    ? Or do you just mean it's logical that people will gamble even when the odds are against them?

  7. #6332
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Does this context preclude:



    ? Or do you just mean it's logical that people will gamble even when the odds are against them?
    People will gamble even when the odds are against them. People think they'll be the winners and that others will lose. Sampling numbers is difficult due to survivorship bias.

    Kahneman and Tversky won a deserved Nobel prize for outlining the reasons.

  8. #6333
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    Ok, so why gamble on BTC instead of something else? Does the fact that the biggest negatives are externalities make the odds seem better?

    It sounds like there's a pretty strong sentiment that BTC will survive the longest because it was the first to solve all the blockchain problems, but it also created the environmental problem. Why shouldn't the first one to solve that get just as much legitimacy? Particularly among the younger folks who stand to inherit a bigger share of that particular externality?

  9. #6334
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    People will gamble even when the odds are against them. People think they'll be the winners and that others will lose. Sampling numbers is difficult due to survivorship bias.
    Powerball being a great example or just about any lottery or Casino games.

    Speculating on Crypto or day trading stocks at least there is no House that has odds in their favor instead it will be the other participants that will take a loss, right? Cause for a seller to make money there has to be a buyer convinced what the seller is selling will move either up or down.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

  10. #6335
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Ok, so why gamble on BTC instead of something else? Does the fact that the biggest negatives are externalities make the odds seem better?

    It sounds like there's a pretty strong sentiment that BTC will survive the longest because it was the first to solve all the blockchain problems, but it also created the environmental problem. Why shouldn't the first one to solve that get just as much legitimacy? Particularly among the younger folks who stand to inherit a bigger share of that particular externality?
    I already stated my reasons. Others have theirs

    1st mover advantage. Debasement of USD/TIPS as my alternate. Laws of supply/demand in favour. Ability in Canada to hold it in registered plan Tax deferred thus massive capital gains advantage.

  11. #6336
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    Speculating on Crypto or day trading stocks at least there is no House that has odds in their favor instead it will be the other participants that will take a loss, right? Cause for a seller to make money there has to be a buyer convinced what the seller is selling will move either up or down.
    All correct. Plus with crypto there is the ability for nimble speculators to "yield farm" ie move from token to token to obtain yield thus offloading bags fairly quickly to latecomers who may or may not become bagholders depending on how the tokens do.

    Ie better odds, low entry barriers, potential asymptotically large gains ( for crypto as opposed to stocks)

  12. #6337
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Not that I know of. Sidecoins, rollups, siloed protocols.... it's things like this that constantly remind me that "Web 3.0" is so very much in its infancy. Tomorrow I have to fund Shakepay, send Eth to Binance, bridge to Polygon to buy Matic, then convert to USDT and fund Metamask, then buy KlimaDAO, then stake it.

    ahhhh DeFi. It's like doing my first ever Redhat Linux install
    Why not just by USDT directly on any fiat onramp?

    You want some cray defi shit, this guy has it on lock:

    https://www.youtube.com/c/DefiCryptoToday
    Is it radix panax notoginseng? - splat

  13. #6338
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    I already stated my reasons. Others have theirs

    1st mover advantage. Debasement of USD/TIPS as my alternate. Laws of supply/demand in favour. Ability in Canada to hold it in registered plan Tax deferred thus massive capital gains advantage.
    Yeah, I caught your reasons earlier, and the argument of lesser ponzi makes some sense, I'm just trying to understand why it stops at BTC specifically for so many people. Is that a rational argument for security at the cost of environmental disaster, or just sentiment?

    ETA: ponzi game is my new vocab for the week
    Last edited by jono; 11-25-2021 at 09:33 AM.

  14. #6339
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    I am grateful for bitcoin, truly. It has changed my life and I hope and expect it will do the same for people all around the world.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  15. #6340
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    ‘i got mine so i won’t critically examine the process’

    america in a nutshell

    i never bought bitcoin 10+ years ago because (i didn’t need drugs and) it was apparent it had become a fake tech advertising gold rush which just means those lagging in tech understanding/access would be the new plebs. the friction is still way too high

    that’s a new version of the same, not a revolution

    NFT self-flagellation highlights our current state of detractive tech development in a perfect way

  16. #6341
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    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    Why not just by USDT directly on any fiat onramp?
    TBH that was a bit of a ramble. There's more liquidity in the KLIMA/USDT pair than the KLIMA/Matic pair which I was looking to USDT. I'm inclined to buy and hodl MATIC (as opposed to USDT) so I may simply do the txn in MATIC and accept the slippage. I'd have to look at conversion fees and take that all into account.

    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Yeah, I caught your reasons earlier, and the argument of lesser ponzi makes some sense, I'm just trying to understand why it stops at BTC specifically for so many people. Is that a rational argument for security at the cost of environmental disaster, or just sentiment?
    Again; for me, BTC was my first entry to crypto. It took me a while to get past my reservations which included the undeniable environmental impact. However because my cost base for BTC is so low there's substantial inertia in rotating to other cryptocurrencies. If/when I do liquidate my BTC I'd rotate to things that are more ESG - friendly; of which there are many choices. Partly that would be personal ethics, partly that would be because I feel that many consumers look askance at BTC's impact. However, I have no idea at what point I would liquidate.

    I suspect many simply hold their nose and accept the stench. I know I do and reconcile it by biking everywhere possible, having no kids, recycling etc etc.

  17. #6342
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    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    ‘i got mine so i won’t critically examine the process’

    america in a nutshell

    i never bought bitcoin 10+ years ago because (i didn’t need drugs and) it was apparent it had become a fake tech advertising gold rush which just means those lagging in tech understanding/access would be the new plebs. the friction is still way too high

    that’s a new version of the same, not a revolution

    NFT self-flagellation highlights our current state of detractive tech development in a perfect way
    Name:  Greed-is-good.jpg
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post

    I suspect many simply hold their nose and accept the stench. I know I do and reconcile it by biking everywhere possible, having no kids, recycling etc etc.
    Fuck off.

  18. #6343
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    I see BTC as analogous to gold- other precious metals are clearly more valuable, more useful, more everything- but in the end gold is king of metals and always will be until people don't care about metals as a store of value.

  19. #6344
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Again; for me, BTC was my first entry to crypto. It took me a while to get past my reservations which included the undeniable environmental impact. However because my cost base for BTC is so low there's substantial inertia in rotating to other cryptocurrencies. If/when I do liquidate my BTC I'd rotate to things that are more ESG - friendly; of which there are many choices. Partly that would be personal ethics, partly that would be because I feel that many consumers look askance at BTC's impact. However, I have no idea at what point I would liquidate.

    I suspect many simply hold their nose and accept the stench. I know I do and reconcile it by biking everywhere possible, having no kids, recycling etc etc.
    That's interesting, thanks! This sounds like an intersection of a long term buy to accumulate strategy and a trade. Maybe I'm taking this too far, but it sounds like you do expect (or at least won't be surprised by) a departure from BTC for environmental reasons, which I assume means you would plan to move quickly if you started to see this beginning? As opposed to just buying every dip and waiting for more money to flow into the game for new highs. Or do you see BTC settling gently enough that you'd have time to get out without any great urgency?
    A woman came up to me and said "I'd like to poison your mind
    with wrong ideas that appeal to you, though I am not unkind."

  20. #6345
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    Happy Black Friday!

    Is it radix panax notoginseng? - splat

  21. #6346
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    Happy if you own REQ.

  22. #6347
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    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  23. #6348
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    This is the most honest page I’ve seen in this thread.
    I like the Ponzie Game analogy.
    It doesn’t have as much to do with a young visionary generation changing the world as it has to do with a generation that doesn’t think about planning, patience, work, security. This is the ultimate lottery ticket/Instagram/YouTube/whatever play at becoming a millionaire with minimal effort.
    The millions of people (like me?) putting a few grand in with FOMO are paying the thousands of people who will ultimately “win”.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Lots of Cream, Lots of Sugar

  24. #6349
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    People should fear missing out on the evolution of technology and the creation of an entirely new asset class.

  25. #6350
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    That is one of the better explanations of speculative manias I have read. Kudos.
    That's like thinking the invention of the computer and internet was a speculative mania.

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