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  1. #3451
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    Sure, the accounting questions within Tether are worthy of skepticism from participants. I'm personally opposed to holding any material sum in USDT for a range of concerns, one of which being their backing (admittedly, I've overweighted the importance of both tehter in general and the accuracy of the initial study - and felt foolish as a consequence). If you follow the industry, you'd know that the bitcoin ethos is strictly opposed to doing anything like that (proof of keys is approaching, as an example). The notion that tether issuance preceding btc runups is suspicious imo betrays an embarrassing level of ignorance regarding market mechanics though.

    The remaining issue is presentation and relevance. It's being used as a wedge issue to question the efficacy and legitimacy of the entire industry, which is an absurd & disingenuous argument. The entirety of the bitcoin culture & ecosystem is founded on the principle of risk (incentive) alignment. No bailouts or centralization of losses that involves compulsion or coercion. If private businesses want to loan each other money to benefit in the long run, great. But if they fail nobody cares. Failure is good, it purges bad actors from the market (even if that means btc falls for a while in response...). If Tether is honest and succeeds, great. If they're cooking books & stealing money, they'll eventually step on dynamite & nobody will look back.

  2. #3452
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    Fed guy gets it, highlights some valid weak points that need to be cured over time.

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/dialogue-...d-is-it-stable

  3. #3453
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    The best money is not debt. Debt is a liability with various types of risk to the holder alongside perverse incentives for debtors.

    The best money is equity. Final settlement, free of upstream risks, pure purchasing power owned by the holder.

    Security & trust minimization reduce societal risk, allow for optimal incentive alignment & strengthen property rights, which form the basis of a society's ability to accumulate & deploy capital.
    Last edited by m20adb; 11-11-2019 at 02:32 PM. Reason: 4matic's pedantry

  4. #3454
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,975

    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Bonds are assets.

  5. #3455
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    May 2002
    Location
    Halfway Between the Gutter and the Stars
    Posts
    3,266
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Bonds are assets.
    Both Jezebelle and James!

  6. #3456
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    Said another way, the liquidity pyramid and thus economy is best supported by a money that is not predicated on the existence of fiduciary media. The core should not be collapsible if at all possible.

    For the simple reason that incentives vary and are often conflicting across the range of an economy's stakeholders.

  7. #3457
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    "Every technology revolution in money led to less centralized control"

    -Prof. Glyn Davies, A History of Money, 1997

  8. #3458
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    870
    Deep dive today from The Globe and Mail:

    Before Quadriga: How shady ventures in Gerald Cotten’s youth led to the creation of his ill-fated cryptocurrency exchange
    http://archive.is/jYFBk

    "Some investors were genuinely duped. But others knew HYIPs were fraudulent and figured that, by getting in early and then withdrawing their money before a program collapsed, they could profit at the expense of less savvy participants."

    LOL



    And then, on the same day, Vanity Fair comes out with a more dramatic read:

    PONZI SCHEMES, PRIVATE YACHTS, AND A MISSING $250 MILLION IN CRYPTO: THE STRANGE TALE OF QUADRIGA
    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019...-gerald-cotten


    When is the movie coming out?
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  9. #3459
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Wish I knew?
    Posts
    2,632
    ^Oh so it's going to zero now.
    The pacifists always lose, because the anti-pacifists kill them.

  10. #3460
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    Jong Kong
    Posts
    82
    It's actually going negative like interest rates. You'll have to pay someone to accept it.

    Sent from my SM-G950U using TGR Forums mobile app
    "Skiing is the easy part, Carl."

  11. #3461
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    870
    Quote Originally Posted by SlyFoxxx View Post
    It's actually going negative like interest rates. You'll have to pay someone to accept it.

    Sent from my SM-G950U using TGR Forums mobile app
    Except with Bitcoin, you will have to pay them with real money to accept it.
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  12. #3462
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Posts
    870
    Quote Originally Posted by AKPogue View Post
    ^Oh so it's going to zero now.
    OK
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  13. #3463
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    Oct 2008
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    Colorado
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    Quote Originally Posted by m964rsa View Post

    The notion that tether issuance preceding btc runups is suspicious imo betrays an embarrassing level of ignorance regarding market mechanics though.

    ].
    You canít assert something like this, that is in essence one of the main knocks against the Bitcoin ecosystem at present, and not make a defense of it.

    Well you can but you sound like a shill and not someone actually interested in making a defended argument.

    If they create Tether with no backing then at best itís no better than fiat and at worst itís a pump the market tool that conveniently raises prices or defends against downward movements of BTC (and others as they tend to follow general movements of BTC).

    The comparison to fiat and other assets of choice to store wealth is important because most assets will, in efficiently clearing markets, reflect the value of the underlying asset and the relative devaluation of the asset of supply is over pumped such as the inflationary printing of money. If the True USDT ratio is not known and is in reality far less than 1:1 then the asset is over inflated - ie the value of BTC et al should go down by some percentage - is it 13% as the above suggests or more like 50% ? No one knows and the clues are there. That condemnation of the study is a exercise in deception and dishonest arguments.



    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Keystone is fucking lame. But, deadly.

  14. #3464
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    Jong Kong
    Posts
    82
    Quote Originally Posted by puregravity View Post
    Except with Bitcoin, you will have to pay them with real money to accept it.
    Fiat is real, my mom said so. Who cares if a $100 bill only costs $.14 to print...

    Sent from my SM-G950U using TGR Forums mobile app
    "Skiing is the easy part, Carl."

  15. #3465
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    Quote Originally Posted by Kinnikinnick View Post
    You can’t assert something like this, that is in essence one of the main knocks against the Bitcoin ecosystem at present, and not make a defense of it.

    Well you can but you sound like a shill and not someone actually interested in making a defended argument.

    If they create Tether with no backing then at best it’s no better than fiat and at worst it’s a pump the market tool that conveniently raises prices or defends against downward movements of BTC (and others as they tend to follow general movements of BTC).

    The comparison to fiat and other assets of choice to store wealth is important because most assets will, in efficiently clearing markets, reflect the value of the underlying asset and the relative devaluation of the asset of supply is over pumped such as the inflationary printing of money. If the True USDT ratio is not known and is in reality far less than 1:1 then the asset is over inflated - ie the value of BTC et al should go down by some percentage - is it 13% as the above suggests or more like 50% ? No one knows and the clues are there. That condemnation of the study is a exercise in deception and dishonest arguments.
    It's an absurdity to present fallacies & demand thoughtful refutation. Often times it's a tactic of disingenuous trolls to invoke the bullshit asymmetry principle as a means of exhausting opponents while serving narrow interests.

    "Tether is not backed" - a narrative that even its author has backed away from. Why do you still parrot it? You're not really addressing or acknowledging the USDT situation for what it is, just using a tangent of it to reinforce your prior beliefs. One thing I got wrong earlier - the balance sheet hole with Bitfinex that set in motion the dilution from 100% USDT backing to 74% backing was Bitfinex's inability to get a banking partner in the US (because banking is a cartel & competitors are blacklisted). Bitfinex was desperate for a partner to help cover operations & ended up choosing poorly (Crypto Capital & ensuing $850M loss - I think around half that money has been seized & isn't permanently loss but don't care enough to verify). Bitfinex worked within their industry to get a loan. There may be a good argument Tether acted inappropriately by diluting reserves, but ultimately that risk is a function of Bitfinex's cash flow strength & ability to repay the loan.

    Outside of a discussion of Tether's adherence to fiduciary norms with respect to the Bitfinex loan (a legitimate debate) I don't see any meat to the broader USDT narrative. There's a reason why the more erudite among btc proponents poke fun of tether truthers. Listen here for more detail. Or read this and look at the market price behavior of USDT over long periods of time.

    And for context on the importance of USDT in bitcoin (the currency) overall, see this below. We're ~45 days out from proof of keys, a bitcoin holiday that is intended to expose unbacked exchanges and bad actors in the space. Many bitcoiners want tether to go bankrupt to reveal its backing & the presence or lack of malfeasance.

    Quote Originally Posted by m964rsa View Post
    Sure, the accounting questions within Tether are worthy of skepticism from participants. I'm personally opposed to holding any material sum in USDT for a range of concerns, one of which being their backing (admittedly, I've overweighted the importance of both tehter in general and the accuracy of the initial study - and felt foolish as a consequence). If you follow the industry, you'd know that the bitcoin ethos is strictly opposed to doing anything like that (proof of keys is approaching, as an example). The notion that tether issuance preceding btc runups is suspicious imo betrays an embarrassing level of ignorance regarding market mechanics though.

    The remaining issue is presentation and relevance. It's being used as a wedge issue to question the efficacy and legitimacy of the entire industry, which is an absurd & disingenuous argument. The entirety of the bitcoin culture & ecosystem is founded on the principle of risk (incentive) alignment. No bailouts or centralization of losses that involves compulsion or coercion. If private businesses want to loan each other money to benefit in the long run, great. But if they fail nobody cares. Failure is good, it purges bad actors from the market (even if that means btc falls for a while in response...). If Tether is honest and succeeds, great. If they're cooking books & stealing money, they'll eventually step on dynamite & nobody will look back.
    Bitcoin is backed by cryptography & governed by math while USD is backed by confidence and governed by politicians.
    Last edited by m20adb; 11-23-2019 at 12:02 PM. Reason: note - I zapped old acct for privacy porpoises. Apologies for confusion

  16. #3466
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    BTC is the ~12th or 13th largest base money out there (link). Issuance rate goes to ~1.7% of supply in April from its current ~3.5%, then down to ~0.8% in 2024. Between now and then, so long as cryptography stays viable & the internet continues to function, it will continue to compete with un-backed paper monies managed by politicians. And if the cryptography is compromised by quantum computing, one of a few hundred thousand ledger copies can be paired with a new hashing algorithm to reboot. It's tremendously asymmetric in terms of difficulty of killing it & discipline within its system vs. the competition.

    versus USD
    Click image for larger version. 

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    s2f model valuation
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    volatility going down over time alongside decay in price increases
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  17. #3467
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    870
    Quote Originally Posted by m20adb View Post
    BTC is the ~12th or 13th largest base money out there (link). Issuance rate goes to ~1.7% of supply in April from its current ~3.5%, then down to ~0.8% in 2024. Between now and then, so long as cryptography stays viable & the internet continues to function, it will continue to compete with un-backed paper monies managed by politicians. And if the cryptography is compromised by quantum computing, one of a few hundred thousand ledger copies can be paired with a new hashing algorithm to reboot. It's tremendously asymmetric in terms of difficulty of killing it & discipline within its system vs. the competition.

    versus USD
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	EJn1QWLUYAA6AAJ.jpg 
Views:	36 
Size:	70.9 KB 
ID:	303484

    s2f model valuation
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	EJ-bsCnWoAAQhwC.png 
Views:	36 
Size:	104.1 KB 
ID:	303485

    volatility going down over time alongside decay in price increases
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	EIpuWdRXkAIL4ER.png 
Views:	36 
Size:	139.8 KB 
ID:	303486
    Good to see that you are using log sharts again.

    In general, most traders and charting programs use the logarithmic shart scale, but it is always a good idea to explore other approaches to determine which is the most suitable for your trading style.
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  18. #3468
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    870
    Quote Originally Posted by m20adb View Post
    It's an absurdity to present fallacies & demand thoughtful refutation. Often times it's a tactic of disingenuous trolls to invoke the bullshit asymmetry principle as a means of exhausting opponents while serving narrow interests..
    ...
    Why did you create a new account (and change the name of your old account)?

    Why not just use your old one - with your elaborate and amazingly intelligent crypto discourse?
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  19. #3469
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    South of 49
    Posts
    870
    Cryptoqueen: How this woman scammed the world, then vanished
    https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-50435014

    Dr Ruja disappears
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  20. #3470
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    Step 1: realize the narrative build up of 'satoshi nakomoto' is a derivative of Rand's john galt.
    Step 2: laugh at how absurd & likely such an endeavor is to fail given the implied challenge to the current model of the nation state, in particular the armies.
    Step 3: acknowledge that it's grown from $0 to $100-200 billion in 11 years with little in the way of successful attacks by incredibly well-funded adversaries.


    Maybe read a book on the subject before making up your mind? There're several good ones 150p or under. Take a couple hours to evaluate where it fits into the spectacle.

    https://www.amazon.com/Inventing-Bit.../dp/B07MWXRWNB

    https://www.amazon.com/Internet-Mone...=UTF8&qid=&sr=

  21. #3471
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Access to Granlibakken
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    7,199
    Quote Originally Posted by puregravity View Post
    Cryptoqueen: How this woman scammed the world, then vanished
    https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-50435014

    Dr Ruja disappears
    No blockchain associated with that crypto currency? WTF. Those investors belong in the Darwin thread.

  22. #3472
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Name:  LLW52wL.png
Views: 140
Size:  59.2 KB
    [KURTZ] Hinterstoisser, you heavy bastard.
    [HINTERSTOISSER] You need to do more push-ups, Kurtz.

  23. #3473
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    Interview with a guy who was deep in the weeds with Tether/Bitfinex/Circle back in 2017.

    Podcast with his bio & explanation 1st hand
    https://open.spotify.com/episode/4p0...S_mbLl-fSFh1MA


    And a writeup summary of his comments:
    Former Circle Head, Dan Matuszewski, now co-founder of trading firm, CMS Holdings, discusses Tether. In particular, why Tether was not the primary driving force behind 2017’s bitcoin bull run, and a declaration that Tether is one-to-one dollar-backed.
    https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/04/f...lly-was-legit/

  24. #3474
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Sandy, Utah
    Posts
    11,368
    Lambos? I havent seen any pics from the bitcoin addicts in this thread with new cars? Sup with that?
    http://www.firsttracksonline.com

    I wish i could be like SkiFishBum

  25. #3475
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    35
    Deutsche Bank "Imagine 2030"

    The End of Fiat Money? p10

    We think fiat money systems should be inherently unstable and prone to high inflation all other things being equal. Politically it is always too tempting to create money when nothing is backing it. That this current fiat system has survived so long has required a fortuitous set of global forces across multiple decades that have created sizeable natural offsetting disinflationary forces.

    The forces that have held the current fiat system together now look fragile and they could unravelin the 2020s. If so, that will start to lead to a backlash against fiat money and demand for alternative currencies, such as gold or crypto could soar.
    Eventually, it is possible that inflation will become more and more embedded in our system and doubts will rise about the sustainability of fiat money. The demand for alternative currencies will therefore likely be significantly higher by the time 2030 rolls around. Will fiat currencies survive the policy dilemma that authorities will experience as they try to balance higher yields with record levels of debt? That’s the multi-trillion dollar (or bitcoin) question for the decade ahead.


    https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RPS_...agine_2030.pdf

    credit to @martybent for the find

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