How to fuck shit up in Austria - A recipe

[klar]

Super sketchy situation that has nonetheless been interesting to watch.

Step 1 - Basic ingredients
A more or less split polar vortex has one major depression over NE Canada and another over Siberia. A strong continental high is reaching far into the north over Scandinavia and blocking the westerly flow Europe is receiving from the very active Atlantic and disturbances are diverted south into the mediterrenean.



Step 2 - Fine tuning
Thanks to the general flow situation a Genoa low develops and intensifies. For best effect make sure it does not move south or east too quickly. Arrange so that your alpine mountain region of interest is hit perpendicularly by the resulting southern flow, in this case we will use the south-eastern Alps, with the mountain regions of East-Tyrol and Carinthia as a particular example. We wait for orographic lift to take effect through the main flow and combine this with some frontal precipitation. As the previous days were calm and clear, the valleys are filled with pools of cold air. This serves to further intensify the precipitation in the mountains.

Veritical lift: Note effect of Alps.

Flow direction is on point.

If the sky is mostly free of clouds in the immediate lee of the Alps we are on the right track.


Step 3 - Seasoning
You have now managed to produce something between 1 to potentially up to three meters of snow in your regions of interest (215cm in 48 hours is the current record, still snowing). For full effect they should fall on a somewhat unfortunate old snowpack. Of course your regions of interest consist mainly of very narrow, steep valleys, which are well populated. Raise the temperature by about 5 degrees after the first meter has fallen.
Old pack:


Result: You have managed to raise the avalanche danger level to 5 in the most affected regions for the first time in 10-15 years, while everything south of the main alpine ridge is at level 4. You have closed major roads and caused huge traffic problems (school holidays are just starting, great timing!) on main highways. Trains are not running, obviously. Six towns are now cut off from the rest of the world and while only about 50 people have been evacuated so far, that number may rise when it starts snowing again tonight. 3000 people have no electricity. The army is starting to clear roofs in certain towns. Because of the weather they have not been able to fly much to do control work on roads. One person died because they were hit by a slide while driving a snow plow in their town. Another person died because they were doing something by a creek in the flat meadow next to their house and apparently the small creekside slope went and pushed them into the water.

I read the Valdez coming unglued topic and couldn't help thinking that there would be 5 farm houses and a skilift under that slide if that was an Austrian valley.

[jumpturn]

Nice explanation, klar.

Level 5 avalanches mean business...like blocking roads and destroying buildings. The good news is that they improve skiing by blasting lines through forests.

Should be a fine base once the sliding is done.

Are the ski areas closed until things settle down?

[sqikunst]

^^ Intersing to see it broken down like that and the explanation as to how the snow totals sort of caught everyone off guard. LKW's without chains absolute chaos on the roads. The cleared roads all have 2-3 meter snow banks now and the towns are just doing everything they can to move the snow. All the roofs have 2 meters of snow on them and it rained this morning, people are gonna be shovelling a lot of snow this week in East Tirol.

[klar]

Are the ski areas are closed until things settle down?

yeah, pretty much, at least in carinthia and east-tyrol. in ötztal/stubai and regions that did not get as much snow some lifts are running in most areas and at least today closures were mostly because of wind.

^^ Intersing to see it broken down like that and the explanation as to how the snow totals sort of caught everyone off guard.

I don't think many people were surprised. the snow totals were being predicted very well some days ago and people are actually reasonably well prepared because of it. official warnings were first given out on tuesday I think.

[tylaw333]

St Anton is off the chain right now goto st Jakob top then go through the gate with the skull warning etc and get ready for the ride of your life de loused In the comatorium

[TBS]

Scary shite!

Walk softly for a while...

[klar]

The weather pattern just keeps going and going, the southern regions are due for another meter or so over the next two days. Avalanche situation has relaxed a bit with the consistently warm temps although a couple of valleys are still cut off.

Over a distance of about 100km you can currently go from green valleys at 15°C (spring flowers blooming in january!) north of the main alpine ridge to 3m of snow on the ground in the south. southern austrian stations are up to 380-650% of normal precipitation for the month of january, while the north is way below average.

January precip in Austria as precentage of 20 year mean:


Nice image of lee waves.

[sqikunst]

^^ when it finally goes bluebird it will literally be a straight line of white and green along the main alpine ridge.

[klar]

yesterday in south tyrol:

[anemic]

wow. amazing video. you sure called this one klar.

[Sutter]

yesterday in south tyrol:

watched it start to finish: an enormous octopus warship.

[COpow]

Whoa... Those people on the deck must have been shitting themselves... Cool to watch, sucks for the homeowners.

[LeeLau]

Schau Schau!

[bodywhomper]

yesterday in south tyrol:

is anybody eventually going to calculate the recurrence interval on that thing?

Thanks

[iceman]

Crazy video. Interesting write-up Klar.

[freak]

is anybody eventually going to calculate the recurrence interval on that thing?

sure. it is gonna be a pretty long interval, otherwise there would not have been houses that close. the trees in the avy were also kinda old...

the situation has been quite extreme the last week. the hut which has been destroyed in the same valley by another avy has been there since 1895 and has been destroyed by an avalanche only once before (in 1932)...

freak~[&]

[bodywhomper]

sure. it is gonna be a pretty long interval, otherwise there would not have been houses that close. the trees in the avy were also kinda old...

the situation has been quite extreme the last week. the hut which has been destroyed in the same valley by another avy has been there since 1895 and has been destroyed by an avalanche only once before (in 1932)...

freak~[&]

Thanks. I figured it was a long interval for the same reasons that you list. Recurrence intervals for avalanches are pretty interesting, at least to me.

[itsnowjoke]

Holy Schnieke!

[bl2000]

I blame Tom.

[Shadam]

I just gotta comment ...

orsum thread !!!

EPIC vid !!!

[klar]

Thanks. I figured it was a long interval for the same reasons that you list. Recurrence intervals for avalanches are pretty interesting, at least to me.

the initial huge snowfall was a "once in 75-100 years" event in terms of precipitation rates and accumulation. the slide in the video was a product of a lot of snow followed by a lot of rain. in 1720 20 people died because a neighbouring hamlet got slid on but I suppose that was a different slide path. this particular slide obviously does not occur very often or at least it doesn't usually get that big.

In Austria there is a system of colour coded zones where red areas are the most critical. You are not allowed to build new structures in the red zones and if there are old buildings in a red zone the inhabitants get evacuated whenever there is any cause for concern. In the yellow zones you have to build according to special regulations (fortify your house so that it can survive a slide etc). South Tyrol, which is technically part of Italy, has a similar system. If that place had been known to be problematic or if the house was in a red zone the people probably would have been evacuated much earlier. It was suggested that they leave after the slide happened and some were flown out (slide blocked the road). Several people apparently declined because they did not want to leave their animals.

[theshredder]

Reminds me of back in June in southern Alberta when a surface low developed on the north side of an upper level trough and tracked west. Moist air converged over the mountains and the orographic effect doubled or maybe even tripled precip on the north side of the low. Parts of the east slopes of the Rockies got something like 400 mm of rain in 2 days. Rivers swelled. Trails/roads were destroyed.

Eldo was asking what if it all fell as snow. I guess now we know. Thanks for posting.

[bodywhomper]

the initial huge snowfall was a "once in 75-100 years" event in terms of precipitation rates and accumulation. the slide in the video was a product of a lot of snow followed by a lot of rain. in 1720 20 people died because a neighbouring hamlet got slid on but I suppose that was a different slide path. this particular slide obviously does not occur very often or at least it doesn't usually get that big.

In Austria there is a system of colour coded zones where red areas are the most critical. You are not allowed to build new structures in the red zones and if there are old buildings in a red zone the inhabitants get evacuated whenever there is any cause for concern. In the yellow zones you have to build according to special regulations (fortify your house so that it can survive a slide etc). South Tyrol, which is technically part of Italy, has a similar system. If that place had been known to be problematic or if the house was in a red zone the people probably would have been evacuated much earlier. It was suggested that they leave after the slide happened and some were flown out (slide blocked the road). Several people apparently declined because they did not want to leave their animals.

Thank you.

[uglymoney]

Saw this crazy video on Wunderground and found more details here. Thanks Klar

[klar]

lots of glidecracks releasing everywhere today in the snowy areas, including the meadow next to the parking lot in the valley.





Also, the wildlife is having problems with the snow. Hope this guy makes it.