12/31/13 CAIC Reporting Avy Fatality on Parkview Mtn-Near Steamboat

[killclimbz]

This link was posted in the Berthoud thread. Georgio was the victim.

http://www.skyhidailynews.com/news/9...ty-dirth-grand

He is a really good guy. I am for the better for knowing him.

[adrenalated]

RIP Georgio. Never met him, but always appreciated his condition reports in the Berthoud threads.

[Lindahl]

Sucks to lose one of our own. Never met him, but also appreciated his contributions in the Berthoud thread.

[MakersTeleMark]

Reporting like this really pisses me off:

The Colorado Avalanche Information center reported the avalanche danger in the area at the time of the accident to be considerate (level 2) above tree line and near tree line for all aspects of slopes in the Front Range Zone, which encompasses Willow Creek pass.

[timmaio]

I met him in Wyoming when I was attempting the Grand. He took pictures of us from the Middle. Definitely a nice guy. RIP and vibes to his friends and family.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Reporting like this really pisses me off:

That particular reporter is not known for being constrained by the fact. Not disagreeing, but what part of it rubbed you raw. The fact that Parkview may be in the Steamboat Zone (I don't know)? The fact that it is an avalanche forecast an opposed to a absolute of what the danger is?

[MakersTeleMark]

The Colorado Avalanche Information center reported the avalanche danger in the area at the time of the accident to be considerate (level 2) above tree line and near tree line for all aspects of slopes in the Front Range Zone, which encompasses Willow Creek pass.

For starters.

[adrenalated]

That particular reporter is not known for being constrained by the fact. Not disagreeing, but what part of it rubbed you raw. The fact that Parkview may be in the Steamboat Zone (I don't know)? The fact that it is an avalanche forecast an opposed to a absolute of what the danger is?

Can't speak for Makers, but there's a number of inaccuracies in that single statement:
-Willow Creek Pass is the boundary between the Front Range and Steamboat zones. Parkview Mountain is in the Steamboat zone.
-the term is Considerable, not Considerate
-Considerable danger is level 3, not level 2
-with the new format, the CAIC no longer gives danger ratings based on aspect, only based on elevation. Avalanche problems are described by aspect and elevation.
-the danger for the Front Range zone was Considerable (L3) near and above treeline and Moderate (L2) below treeline on the date of the accident
-the danger for the Steamboat zone was Moderate (L2) at all elevations on the date of the accident

[pbourdon]

We'd been talking in Clear Creek County the past few weeks about how we felt like the 'moderate' rating was a bit relaxed considering what we were seeing out there. Not blaming CAIC as they have a TON of ground to cover and given the spatial variability in one drainage let alone an entire forecast zone you can't really fault them too hard. The big issue here is the tricky nature of the persistent slab problem. These bastards are NOT to be trusted/tested in my opinion. Their party had one member descend the slope safely before it failed on Georgio. Persistent slabs scare the shit outta me and are a typical in CO. People get upset when I say our snowpack sucks and that I don't trust it as far as I can throw it, but incidents like these and the many others over the years go to prove my point. VIBES to George and all involved. So sad to lose such a positive person. Please, when you're out there between now and may think about where you live and the reputation our snowpack carries. It may just save your life.

[spook]

"Moderate" is a terrible word for an avy rating, imo. Another word should be used. Like "caution" or something like it.

Rog

i don't know shit, but if you said there was a moderate chance of your boat sinking or a moderate chance of your tv exploding in front of you or a moderate chance of your house burning down while you sleeping i wouldn't fuck with anything like that.

after reading and watching so much avalanche stuff here over the years, moderate to me means ski at the resort.

[simplypow]

Although he writes professionally, the point on confusion is made quite nicely by this field reporter covering "steamboat" avalanche...

"The Colorado Avalanche Information center reported the avalanche danger in the area at the time of the accident to be considerate (level 2) above tree line and near tree line for all aspects of slopes in the Front Range Zone, which encompasses Willow Creek pass.

Persistent slabs and wind-loaded snow are the main cause of the heightened avalanche danger.

Reid Tulley can be reached at 970-887-3334

[icelanticskier]

i don't know shit, but if you said there was a moderate chance of your boat sinking or a moderate chance of your tv exploding in front of you or a moderate chance of your house burning down while you sleeping i wouldn't fuck with anything like that.

after reading and watching so much avalanche stuff here over the years, moderate to me means ski at the resort.

come up with any analogy's you choose. when it comes to the avalanche game, "moderate" is not so clear as it would be with burning houses, bar brawls, and sinking boats. staring at steep hillsides covered with perfect powder snow is a whole different deal where our minds are thinking "face shots", not "body blows"

rog

[NoPostholio]

that is an excellent descriptor of the achilles heel - the human factor. Well said Rog -

[simplypow]

Although some were clearly nervous the techs opened whales tale/ vertigo. Great day but man oh man things could get really ugly up there if a slab fails with all jong heading down haphazardly at th esame time.

[pbourdon]

As a point of review....

i don't know shit, but if you said there was a moderate chance of your boat sinking or a moderate chance of your tv exploding in front of you or a moderate chance of your house burning down while you sleeping i wouldn't fuck with anything like that.
after reading and watching so much avalanche stuff here over the years, moderate to me means ski at the resort.

I'm a huge sally when it comes to avy danger, but a moderate rating does not relegate me to riding in bounds (to each their own however). But, moderate does mean be aware (which I know these dudes were, an experienced group no doubt), don't let your guard down, and for me, personally, here in Colorado it means keep it mellow. It sucks to skip meadows all winter, but at the same time as I said above I don't trust our shitpack. Moderate danger level means that human triggered slides are POSSIBLE with small avalanches in specific areas (windslab, etc) and large avalanches in isolated areas (areas with PS/PWL). The tough part is with these persistent slabs is they can give you a false sense of security as they can be fairly strong, until they fail. They however, as CAIC has noted repeatedly over the past few weeks are UNPREDICTABLE and tend to go bigger than would normally be expected. This is a tricky problem to negotiate and most who know way more about the subject than I do say the best way to deal with persistent slabs is to avoid them by keeping it to terrain 30degrees or less.

come up with any analogy's you choose. when it comes to the avalanche game, "moderate" is not so clear as it would be with burning houses, bar brawls, and sinking boats. staring at steep hillsides covered with perfect powder snow is a whole different deal where our minds are thinking "face shots", not "body blows"

rog

And of course, herein lies the problem. Its hard to keep it mellow all winter. I want to ride steep shit too! The human factor is arguably more unpredictable than the persistent slab problem, especially when you get a good group of guys together who all know/trust one another and feel comfortable with one another. No one wants to be the guy who puts a buzzkill on the day, especially when its super good conditions. It tears me up to know we lost another member of the tribe. Stay safe out there guys.

[spook]

come up with any analogy's you choose. when it comes to the avalanche game, "moderate" is not so clear as it would be with burning houses, bar brawls, and sinking boats. staring at steep hillsides covered with perfect powder snow is a whole different deal where our minds are thinking "face shots", not "body blows"

rog

i'm sure. i can pretty much guarantee once i'm out there i'll be THE chickenshit. i have no problem being the bummer in group dynamics. then again, i wouldn't go with anybody i didn't trust completely and i can be persuaded but we have to at least talk about it. also, in my mind, you're supposed to be thinking about everything but the face shots right up until you decide it's safe.

besides, i thought you only skied flat shit.

[spook]

As a point of review....





I'm a huge sally when it comes to avy danger, but a moderate rating does not relegate me to riding in bounds (to each their own however). But, moderate does mean be aware (which I know these dudes were, an experienced group no doubt), don't let your guard down, and for me, personally, here in Colorado it means keep it mellow. It sucks to skip meadows all winter, but at the same time as I said above I don't trust our shitpack. Moderate danger level means that human triggered slides are POSSIBLE with small avalanches in specific areas (windslab, etc) and large avalanches in isolated areas (areas with PS/PWL). The tough part is with these persistent slabs is they can give you a false sense of security as they can be fairly strong, until they fail. They however, as CAIC has noted repeatedly over the past few weeks are UNPREDICTABLE and tend to go bigger than would normally be expected. This is a tricky problem to negotiate and most who know way more about the subject than I do say the best way to deal with persistent slabs is to avoid them by keeping it to terrain 30degrees or less.



And of course, herein lies the problem. Its hard to keep it mellow all winter. I want to ride steep shit too! The human factor is arguably more unpredictable than the persistent slab problem, especially when you get a good group of guys together who all know/trust one another and feel comfortable with one another. No one wants to be the guy who puts a buzzkill on the day, especially when its super good conditions. It tears me up to know we lost another member of the tribe. Stay safe out there guys.

hey, i told you i didn't know shit, including the specifics of the avalanche scale! i thought moderate was in the middle. plus, i'm 47, started late and my goal at this point is to get out there without putting myself in danger with a 2 year old at home to whom i hope i can introduce bc skiing when he's old enough. survive and advance.

[pbourdon]

hey, i told you i didn't know shit, including the specifics of the avalanche scale! i thought moderate was in the middle. plus, i'm 47, started late and my goal at this point is to get out there without putting myself in danger with a 2 year old at home to whom i hope i can introduce bc skiing when he's old enough. survive and advance.

Nah man, that scale was posted as a review for everyone, not just you. It seems like we're all (myself included) may be a bit unclear as to exactly what avy professionals mean when they post a 'moderate' rating. Knowing what each level of the scale means as far as size and distro of slides is HUGE. I'm glad to see the rating upped to considerable today like it probably should've been for the past 3 weeks or so since our big storm cycle and subsequent wind events; but it just sucks it took a dude dying to get it there. The most appropriate rating for the past few weeks would've included pockets of considerable danger in an otherwise moderate danger setting, but that's just like, my opinion, man....

[MakersTeleMark]

It comes down to people misreading a general one-word description for an entire zone. Not the forecasters' fault. When you have a huge layer of facets below a persistent slab, of course, if it goes, it goes big. No one can guess when though.

It's so much easier to forecast for recent loading and wind. Trends are easy to predict.

That is why you have to micro your shit: terrain, history, weather, aspect, temps. That can't be described in a daily.

Get your hands cold, analyze it yourself, and then smartly hit the edges and feel it. You have to work up, from the bottom, and from the beginning, to really know what is going on for a particular slope on a particular day.

It takes a lot of work to ski a sick line, or none. It's just that the risk/consequences equation changes from being aware of even those 2 things. But the slope doesn't give one flying fuck either way.

The last thing I would call snow science and avalanche forecasting is science. Sure, on a molecular, statistical, and hindsight basis it is valid; but from a heuristic, "what should I ski today", perspective, it is barely, or even a dangerous, data point.

And that is why armchairing is bs.

[spook]

Nah man, that scale was posted as a review for everyone, not just you. It seems like we're all (myself included) may be a bit unclear as to exactly what avy professionals mean when they post a 'moderate' rating. Knowing what each level of the scale means as far as size and distro of slides is HUGE. I'm glad to see the rating upped to considerable today like it probably should've been for the past 3 weeks or so since our big storm cycle and subsequent wind events; but it just sucks it took a dude dying to get it there. The most appropriate rating for the past few weeks would've included pockets of considerable danger in an otherwise moderate danger setting, but that's just like, my opinion, man....

okay, bro. thanks for pointing that out, bro.

[pbourdon]

It comes down to people misreading a general one-word description for an entire zone. Not the forecasters' fault. When you have a huge layer of facets below a persistent slab, of course, if it goes, it goes big. No one can guess when though.

It's so much easier to forecast for recent loading and wind. Trends are easy to predict.

That is why you have to micro your shit: terrain, history, weather, aspect, temps. That can't be described in a daily.

Get your hands cold, analyze it yourself, and then smartly hit the edges and feel it. You have to work up, from the bottom, and from the beginning, to really know what is going on for a particular slope on a particular day.

It takes a lot of work to ski a sick line, or none. It's just that the risk/consequences equation changes from being aware of even those 2 things. But the slope doesn't give one flying fuck either way.

The last thing I would call snow science and avalanche forecasting is science. Sure, on a molecular, statistical, and hindsight basis it is valid; but from a heuristic, "what should I ski today", perspective, it is barely, or even a dangerous, data point.

And that is why armchairing is bs.

All great points. And please, don't think I'm pointing fingers at CAIC. Like I said in my OP, there's a shit ton of variability in a single drainage let alone the whole forecast zone. From what I understand these guys dug some pits over the course of their tour, so they did get their hands cold for sure; but like you mention, with persistent slabs trends can be very difficult to identify and they tend to go big when they go...

[MakersTeleMark]

All great points. And please, don't think I'm pointing fingers at CAIC. Like I said in my OP, there's a shit ton of variability in a single drainage let alone the whole forecast zone. From what I understand these guys dug some pits over the course of their tour, so they did get their hands cold for sure; but like you mention, with persistent slabs trends can be very difficult to identify and they tend to go big when they go...

Not pointing fingers or pontificating at all. I think this is a good discussion about the inherent limitations of public avalanche forecasting.

[icelanticskier]

besides, i thought you only skied flat shit.

a myth, I assure you.

good discussion!

rog

[bendtheski]

If nothing else comes from this accident and discussion, I at least have a new perspective on the term moderate.

My wife who has never skied said her interpretation of moderate would be a 50% chance. I'm sure that's an over-simplification of a complex analysis, but at least from her perspective, if I expose myself to a 50% chance of being caught in a slide, then I'm being reckless. She's not terribly interested in the subtleties of snow science, terrain management, risk assessment/tolerance, she just wants her husband to come home alive, and at least on that point we're in complete agreement.

There's been a number of near misses in the last couple of weeks, along with some tragic losses. I really hope that discussions like this, the attention from the media (even if they confuse considerable with considerate), and even armchair qb'ing, result in at least a reduction in the numbers of people getting caught.

I would think/hope that everyone has a reason and desire to get home safe. Seems like a delicate balancing act between doing the things that give us enjoyment and quality in our lives, which could also kill us, and staying home, safe, and bored to death.

[steezybomber]

i will reserve my opinions on moderate, I am here simply to say +++vibes+++ to the friends and family. terrible way to end the holiday season, or any time of year. thoughts and prayers