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01-14-2013, 09:14 AM #4326Banned
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- 7,167
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01-14-2013, 09:18 AM #4327
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01-14-2013, 09:18 AM #4328Banned
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would be a sound decision.......
todays avy report:
"Tuckerman Ravine has Considerable and Low avalanche danger. The Sluice, Lip, and Center Bowl have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. All other forecast areas have Low avalanche danger. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated terrain features. This is an unusual day as far as avalanche potential goes, so please read on for details.
Huntington Ravine has Moderate and Low avalanche danger. Central Gully and Pinnacle Gully have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. All other areas have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely except in isolated terrain features.
Well, it sure is an interesting morning to be an avalanche forecaster. Hermit Lake is hovering just shy of 50F (10C) right now with thick fog up in the ravine. It’s been this way since early last night, and temperatures have been above freezing in the ravines since Friday. Yesterday, I thought we might escape without too much damage to an already thin snowpack, but the difference between yesterday and this morning is significant. The Cutler River leading out of Tuckerman has opened up completely and the Little Headwall is now a torrent of falling water. Today, temperatures will begin to fall back into normal winter numbers. The summit temps should go below freezing late morning and the rest of the mountain will follow in the early afternoon. This will begin a process of freezing the saturated upper layers of snow, but this process will take some time. Until then, we will continue to have free water within the snowpack percolating downward, finding small channels, and working its way into larger streams.
Today’s biggest avalanche problem is the potential for water in these streams to rise up into the snowpack and release wet avalanches. These may be wet slabs or loose wet avalanches, but either can be very dangerous due to their incredible mass. The locations where streams tend to flow all year and drain larger areas of the terrain hold the greatest potential for streams to exceed their capacity and overflow into the snowpack. The best examples of where we might see naturally triggered wet avalanches include the Lip, the Center Bowl, Sluice, Pinnacle, and Central Gully.
The avalanche potential in the rest of the forecast areas is lower than in these five slide paths, but remember that Low danger does not mean no danger. In many of these areas, there is less snow overall and less water draining down the gullies. I believe the probability that we’ll see avalanche activity here is at the level where “unlikely except in isolated terrain features” is the best way to describe the problem. The snowpack has already weathered a prolonged period of warm weather, so many of the potential weak layers have already been tested. Look at locations with pockets of deeper snow to be the ones that maybe have not been fully tested. Examples where I’d be on the lookout include the lower portions of the gullies in Huntington, also up high in Hillman’s and Left Gully, and in the mouth of Right Gully.
Ok, moving on from avalanches…today the mountain will begin to freeze up. Once this happens, conditions on steep snow will become treacherous. A slip, trip, or fall in steep terrain will need to be arrested immediately, and depending on how hard the crust sets up, this may be nearly impossible for even the most skilled mountaineer. Over the years we’ve seen enough of these lightning fast long sliding falls to know that they are not something to take lightly. Consider your terrain choices carefully this upcoming week. There are currently few locations where the runout of a long fall does not involve significant consequences."
the lil headwall may never come in this season, seen it before............grim.
twas barely skiable the two trips through last week, nice pow tho.
rog
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01-14-2013, 09:26 AM #4329
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01-14-2013, 09:52 AM #4330
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01-14-2013, 10:04 AM #4331
SICK MORETOWN!!! my parents built a house on Howes road in 1970 that we still own. Absolutely Love it up there.
Make more cold. I got one day in at Jay peak last season and I haven't gotten on the snow yet this season!! Like the pirate with the steering wheel on his crotch, it's driving me nuts!thats new hampshire as fuck
We ain't eager to be legal, so please leave me with the keys to your Jeep Eagle.
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01-14-2013, 10:07 AM #4332Banned
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01-14-2013, 10:09 AM #4333Registered User
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Ugh. What happens to ULLR every Jan. that makes him take a whiz on the EC? Glogg hangover?
Anyway, I'm going to rogblog here to catch up:
JonathanS: I will send you a pair of of all Ti DIN 50 NASA branded tech binders if you DO NOT post pix in your new race suit
TC: knee's still just annoying here. I keep going thru MCL tear, reattachment and re-tear cycles. Going back under the knife this month. Been enjoying all the pics in absentia.
MBB: since I'm out, keep that gear unless you feel the need to get it back to me. I won't need it in the near future. PM me if you want to meet up, but really no hurry at all on my end. Hang on to it if it works for you.
May start unloading some gear soon due to the knee / knife.
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01-14-2013, 10:23 AM #4334
I miss it terribly, even though I am just over the hill now. Dream is move back there. Our place was up on the Moretown Mtn. rd, before Howe's on Carrigan, just above the sand pits. Views of the Hump out our window were stunning. Spent my childhood roaming the mountain woods behind us. Wish we still owned that house.
"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."- Alan Greenspan
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01-14-2013, 10:42 AM #4335
You definitely looked fully stoked when we bumped into each other on the deck at Magic. Congratulations on making it through to the other side and getting after it!
A nice four day run: great conditions at Gore on Thursday (made with runs with Radam and his Dad including my first exploration of the trees this year), incredibly dry, loose powder on Freefall at Plattekill Friday, and two days of bizarre, thermal inversion at Magic. Had a great time skiing with both the regular Magic Mags and some folks I hadn't met before. And I'm doing what I can for the Worth cause: as I was going in for an afternoon break I ran into a guy on the deck I've met a few times before, he was asking about the DBs, so I suggested he click in and take them for a spin while I was recuperating. He got 2 runs in and then we finished the day out together including very last chair before the bell. His was impressed with the responsiveness and surprisingly quick edge to edge pop. It's definitely been a blast skiing on them and I'm pretty close to being dialed in on the sweet spot all the time now as I've gotten stronger and my balance has returned.
I had hoped to get whatever scraps were left today, but Magic opted not to open for a "snow preservation day." But I'm calling bullshit; snow pack and conditions at the end of the day yesterday were better than opening day on Magic Carpet --> Lower Trick --> Wand --> Showoff. The 10 or so skiers that would have shown up today would not have had any significant affect on the amount of snow left as we head into the cold cycle starting in the next day or so when they will necessarily be blowing more snow to prep for the MLK weekend. Of the 16 days they have been scheduled to operate since opening day, they have not done so for 4.5 of those days. Ah well, Friday's not *too* far off...If it's too loud, you're too old
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01-14-2013, 10:46 AM #4336
On a separate note:
FUCK CANCER!!!!!!!
Really, this shit just eats me up.
Vibes to the Magic Mag going under the knife on Friday. I'll be thinking of you and look forward to your swift recovery and return.If it's too loud, you're too old
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01-14-2013, 11:07 AM #4337
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01-14-2013, 11:19 AM #4338
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01-14-2013, 11:21 AM #4339
glad yall got out this weekend. i missed out on the soft snow, should have finally made that pilgrimage to the bowl saturday - looked fun!
picked up these for my GF on kijiji for our hut trip to mont logan in March. all of a sudden she's incredibly pumped to ski and is even asking me about telemark and listening to me go on and on about the BC
take note mags, italian leather may be the way to a girl's heart / stoke
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01-14-2013, 12:00 PM #4340
Great meeting you and glad we were able to figure out, well, that we were talking to one another! I think our conversation started completely generically as 2 guys who just didn't know each other and were simply sharing how stoked we were to be there!
Happy that you had a ton of skiing on that 4 day run!
x1000000000000
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01-14-2013, 12:30 PM #4341
Great looking boots, rudeness. My old skool buddy and I were out for a few laps in leathers and straight sticks today to celebrate our birthdays. Happy Birthday Tua us!
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01-14-2013, 12:59 PM #4342
^^^ love the Tua stoke! i've got her on a pair of Karhu Orions. I've got some Madshus Eon which are great but I wish they were still Karhus. Would be fun to try the Fischers with the "nordic rocker" some day.
And big vibes to anyone fighting the big C. All power to ya
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01-14-2013, 01:29 PM #4343
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01-14-2013, 02:06 PM #4344
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01-14-2013, 02:24 PM #4345
That spot was skiing so well this weekend. Looks like it still is. Hmmmm....pre-dawn raid? Well, then it may be rink-ish.
"I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."- Alan Greenspan
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01-14-2013, 02:33 PM #4346
weasel1...Those are some sexy ass boards there....grrrrrr they a FKNA SWEET.....
always forward but never straight
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01-14-2013, 02:36 PM #4347
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01-14-2013, 02:47 PM #4348thats new hampshire as fuck
We ain't eager to be legal, so please leave me with the keys to your Jeep Eagle.
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01-14-2013, 04:57 PM #4349Banned
- Join Date
- Dec 2009
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- 7,167
nice boots! spent my 1st coupla seasons west skiing in the almost identical merrill version of those on 80-60-70 dynastars. skied all terrain on that setup, even everything in tux and beyond. the gear we use today isn't really even skiing imo. WAY too fucking ez
in preparation for the new home closing tomorrow, i smartly packed my board and suit while heading off to the banks and whatnot. my gal sees me grab my board and asked what i was doing. "oh, nothing honey" . fucking 60 degrees with full sun and fine lil waves rolling through. thank god the walk through tomorrow morning isn't till 8:30am.......and only a mile from the beach
fucking strawjack!
rogblog
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01-14-2013, 06:05 PM #4350
From NEWW an hour ago.
THE LITTLE WAVE THAT COULD
Latest guidance is suggesting the little wave for Wednesday riding North along the stalled cold front may be a bit more juiced than earlier progged, will up snow amounts to 4-8 inches in some locations and 6 inches in others, Winter Storm warnings and or advisories may be needed later this evening or tomorrow morning.
Silent....but shredly.
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