Financial Mags...splain to me: Facebook IPO

**Bromontana** · 11-08-2015, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by commonlaw

Facebook is going to continue to need kids and kids are fickle. If you don't want your dad's perfectly bitchin' GTO, you'll look elsewhere. MySpace was the GTO and Facebook was the elsewhere. Sure, Facebook gobbles up ancillary tech, but they are mainly buying user bases. There is a whole grip of people down in the Valley who have shed loads of money to reacquire those users with a new brand. Non-widget tech companies have a huge row to hoe to remain relevant. They aren't pumping out Swiss watches. Constant innovation. If Facebook doesn't start connecting people to services and products in a meaningful way, like Amazon, someone else can step in to help people connect with people all the same. And it will be with a company that your father can't anecdotally talk about.

ty for taking my THC-speak and making a coherent point

**4matic** · 11-08-2015, 01:50 PM

Popularity with young people has little to do with FB growth. It's a requirement that businesses have a Facebook presence. Also, the advertising is more engaging than GOOG. FB does $4B in ad revenue and GOOG does $15b. There are only two winners in online advertising. FB and GOOG.

Agree with Brock. FB is much more like GOOG than anything else.

**Art Shirk** · 11-08-2015, 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

It's a requirement that businesses have a Facebook presence.

I was going to ask why you think that is but I suppose I don't need three posts to get to one point. This is true precisely because of the dismissive statement you made just prior. One does not work without the other. And "popularity" is fleeting.

And while true that these guys hire like a tech company with top brass talent (good friend who graduated top of her MIT class is a recent alum), I don't think they know what to do with the data they have.

If I had to guess, I'd bet as soon as they really start pushing towards more monetization they will get more annoying to the consumer - the same consumer who started the journey with them simply sharing photos and pictures of their tacos. The new entity to step in will do the exact same thing but the consumer won't be offended because their history is different.

On the plus side, everyone wants to be on the same platform so attrition pain is in their favor.

**stfu&gbtw** · 11-08-2015, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Popularity with young people has little to do with FB growth. It's a requirement that businesses have a Facebook presence. Also, the advertising is more engaging than GOOG. FB does $4B in ad revenue and GOOG does $15b. There are only two winners in online advertising. FB and GOOG.

Agree with Brock. FB is much more like GOOG than anything else.

Google will become Alta Vista at the moment a tool as revolutionary as google was in 1998 steps up to replace it. Google in the late 90's was like magic. It's not any more. Facebook is the same. We've only scratched the surface of the public computer network concept. The next big winner will be whoever works out the mobile interface problem. So far, no one's even come close. All the tools are on the table. Our cheap devices have incredible processing power, we can cheaply transmit 25mbps wirelessly over open space to millions of people simultaneously... Google and Facepage and all the services like them will soon become only "stuff"... South Korea and Japan are primed to conquer the world.

**DJSapp** · 11-10-2015, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by commonlaw

..."popularity" is fleeting.

...The new entity to step in will do the exact same thing but the consumer won't be offended because their history is different.

On the plus side, everyone wants to be on the same platform so attrition pain is in their favor.

This is the exact issue. Facebook's SOLE ASSET is it's users. Users that pay nothing for the service and the only tie to the platform is that their other friends use it too. Anyone who thinks anything else is a fool. All it takes is a slightly better app, combined with some change FB makes to make the experience of sharing taco photos more annoying to trigger a user migration. It has happened before and it will happen again. The only question is how long will FB have in the sun.

Google took a good shot at it with google+, but missed the mark with timing, as there wasn't enough uprightous rage at FB to trigger a migration.
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See Also: Migration of Power Maggots to TGR in 2003. It wasn't the forum that changed, or the features, the admin pissed off the users and the users left for the same shit in a new location.

**spindrift** · 04-28-2016, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

"Remember when everybody was going to have a blog?"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/11/facebook/

...

Another quarter, another bump...

And another opportunity for the TGR pundits to weigh in.

**4matic** · 04-28-2016, 09:11 AM

FB is now the leader and pulling away in online advertising. GOOG is even feeling the effects. I suspect it has a few more quarters at least but news that FB user fatigue is cropping up will eventually be a problem. Future depends on ability to monetize Instagram and WhatsApp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ns_by_Facebook

**Bromontana** · 04-28-2016, 11:23 AM

Facebook owns Occulus Rift as well right? I see that as a material upside but admittedly have spent about zippy hours reading on its actual rev potential.

**spindrift** · 07-27-2016, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

"Remember when everybody was going to have a blog?"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/11/facebook/

"But the dropping posts on Facebook prove that everybody is not a star. That the wild west atmosphere of the internet is a phase. And as things solidify, cyberspace resembles the rest of society… There’s a very thin layer of superstars/winners, a small class who believe the low barrier to entry means they can win the lottery, while the rest have checked out and are interacting one to one and consuming when they’re not.

Same as it ever was. Passivity reigns. TV never became interactive and the websites built on this premise, that if you build it they will come and spew their data and make you rich, is flawed too."

Another quarter, another bump. With a special hat tip to Benny, whose market insights are almost as profound as his analysis of candidates and politics. I am continually impressed. And of course this post would not be complete without a memorial nod to the genius of Mr. Conway as well...

So Benny, is this all an artificial bubble that is being juiced up by an evil global conspiracy led by DWS to line Hillary's and Bill's pockets???? Inquiring minds want to know. Or do we need to wait for an expose by Matt Taibbi to find out?

Seriously, is there any question at this point that FB is a real business? Does anyone think it is going away any time soon?

In the spirit of actually offering something constructive.... I was recently in east Africa. As far as I can tell, WhatsApp is pretty much a universal communication mechanism there. The other thing you could not miss was M-Pesa (not related to FB). WhatsApp and M-Pesa were everywhere. I mean you could be in the middle of nowhere and if there was a cell signal, both of those things were in use. I'm not sure what FB is gonna do with it WhatsApp - but that is one interesting asset. I need to play with it. Anyone have experience? Dare I ask - any insights? (seriously)

**Brock Landers** · 07-27-2016, 04:32 PM

Hah! I lol'd

**Bromontana** · 07-27-2016, 11:21 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Yes. It's essentially a pyramid scheme, and the original cons are cashing in to the marks and muppets today. This is the only reason they put up money. They could give a fuck if Facebook is alive or dead in a few years.

you will be held accountable

. Quit while you're ahead and don't fight the tradewinds.

**abraham** · 07-27-2016, 11:32 PM

Originally Posted by spindrift

In the spirit of actually offering something constructive.... I was recently in east Africa. As far as I can tell, WhatsApp is pretty much a universal communication mechanism there. The other thing you could not miss was M-Pesa (not related to FB). WhatsApp and M-Pesa were everywhere. I mean you could be in the middle of nowhere and if there was a cell signal, both of those things were in use. I'm not sure what FB is gonna do with it WhatsApp - but that is one interesting asset. I need to play with it. Anyone have experience? Dare I ask - any insights? (seriously)

I don't have it my phone now but for almost all my European friends it's the way to reach them. I think it's cheaper than sms in a bunch of countries because of how data charges are used? It's kinda like Line in being dominant in certain worlds. Pretty sure that's why facebook paid so much for it, because there was a network of users. I'll probably get it on the phone again in a few weeks when I go back.

Some of my more privacy minded (paranoid?) friends are using other options like circle and threema now but there's always the issue of not having enough users, like G+ when it started.

**spindrift** · 07-30-2016, 11:30 AM

Originally Posted by abraham

I don't have it my phone now but for almost all my European friends it's the way to reach them. I think it's cheaper than sms in a bunch of countries because of how data charges are used? It's kinda like Line in being dominant in certain worlds. Pretty sure that's why facebook paid so much for it, because there was a network of users. I'll probably get it on the phone again in a few weeks when I go back.

Some of my more privacy minded (paranoid?) friends are using other options like circle and threema now but there's always the issue of not having enough users, like G+ when it started.

Thanks. I guess I'm going to have to play with it. I suppose it revealed a certain inner bias. It seems I just kind of subconsciously assumed that most used the tools I use. Then I was looked at like I was an idiot for not having WhatsApp on my phone

Always useful to learn when you are being provincial.... I suspect it is a good thing for shareholders (including me) that FB looked more broadly.

**Phill** · 07-31-2016, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by spindrift

As far as I can tell, WhatsApp is pretty much a universal communication mechanism there. The other thing you could not miss was M-Pesa (not related to FB). WhatsApp and M-Pesa were everywhere. I mean you could be in the middle of nowhere and if there was a cell signal, both of those things were in use. I'm not sure what FB is gonna do with it WhatsApp - but that is one interesting asset. I need to play with it. Anyone have experience? Dare I ask - any insights? (seriously)

I resisted whatsapp for years but it is everywhere here. I finally couldn't hold out any longer because of a group project I was working on but I still hate it and my uninstall it. Its just a reinvention of msn messenger / aol for your phone and I didn't cry when those died.

When you install it, you instantly become 100x more popular than you were before, and are constantly contacted by people who sort of want to talk to you but not quite enough to pony up the 1 cent for an SMS.

**spindrift** · 05-03-2017, 03:14 PM

Paging Benny "the Analyst" Profane to the white courtesy phone.

Just looking for more high quality business analysis from a real pro.

Because it is always good to see someone whose expertise spans business and politics with equal levels of insight

**The Suit** · 05-03-2017, 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by spindrift

Paging Benny "the Analyst" Profane to the white courtesy phone.

Just looking for more high quality business analysis from a real pro.

Because it is always good to see someone whose expertise spans business and politics with equal levels of insight

You should ask him about Amazon while you're at it.

**spindrift** · 07-27-2017, 09:54 AM

Another quarter another bump.

Paging @PunditProfane to the white courtesy phone. Your fans are awaiting your continued insights about how FB was a dog at the IPO price....

**4matic** · 07-27-2017, 11:12 AM

Cautious Analyst today was talking about ad growth. At the current rate of growth FB will have 90% of all digital add dollars in 4 years.

**spindrift** · 07-27-2017, 07:50 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Cautious Analyst today was talking about ad growth. At the current rate of growth FB will have 90% of all digital add dollars in 4 years.

Well, Google might try to stop that trend

It is not a zero sum game at the moment. But the wind does not seem to favor old school ad venues. FB, Google and others seem to be sucking the blood of those places.

**Stu Gotz** · 07-27-2017, 08:36 PM

I really don't get the FB juggernaut. The numbers are off the charts, but no one seems to actually use the service other than a few power housewives. Certainly no one under 30. Are advertisers just lazy and ad spend will eventually catch on that FB doesn't reach the intended audience? Am I horribly missing the picture?

**Mazderati** · 07-27-2017, 09:35 PM

Well, yes.

**Stu Gotz** · 07-27-2017, 09:54 PM

Touche'.

**splat** · 07-27-2017, 10:43 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

I really don't get the FB juggernaut. The numbers are off the charts, but no one seems to actually use the service other than a few power housewives. Certainly no one under 30. Are advertisers just lazy and ad spend will eventually catch on that FB doesn't reach the intended audience? Am I horribly missing the picture?

I'm sure the age numbers would surprise you. FB's targeted marketing delivers whatever you choose to the audience you choose based on the things they like. I think it's the most incredible marketing tool since TV. Big money.

**Benny Profane** · 07-29-2017, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

I really don't get the FB juggernaut. The numbers are off the charts, but no one seems to actually use the service other than a few power housewives. Certainly no one under 30. Are advertisers just lazy and ad spend will eventually catch on that FB doesn't reach the intended audience? Am I horribly missing the picture?

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/28/pro...happened-next/