Powerball - MegaMillons: You play?

[fortysix&2]

So, my wife and I have decided to start playing Powerball - for fun. Mind you, we are very conservative when it comes to recreational spending (except skiing of course). Naturally, as a data-freak, I downloaded historical data for PB and MM, and checked sets of numbers against the data. It turns out, the empirical data suggests PB has a 16% return, and MM has a 9% return (for every dollar spent, I get $0.16/$0.09 back).

Anyone else play? Any big winners? Strategies?

[tex1230]

Lottery is a tax on people who are not good at math. until your expected return is > $1, you are wasting money.

[SterlingSpikeDancer]

I play, and consider it a "tax" that goes towards my parks usage here in Colorado. And my completely unscientific analysis tells me that I tend to win more frequently playing MM than I have historically with PB. Still kind of fun to give $5/month to the kitty and know it helps GOCO here.

[Blurred]

Why do the fucktards only play when the jackpot is super high? If you hit the fucking thing for a measly 5 million, that's still a great ROI.

PS-new law effective immediately......if you say "we're going to keep working at our jobs" after winning the lottery, you'll be instantly shot in your stupid fucking head and your winnings will be given to those who will spend it having the time of their life.

[iceman]

I only play when the payout hits a billion. This strategy has saved me a ton of money over the years.

[jahoney]

...my retirement plan

oh yes, I take it very seriously

[dumpy]

I play MegaMillions and some state lotto scratchers and what not.

Let me rephrase that, I donate money to State of New York's education system. With that donation I'm eligible for certain "door prizes", if I win something, great. If not, no biggie.

That is the only healthy attitude towards lottery, anything else and you are fucking kidding yourself.

[Elkhound Odin]

I run a pool @ work when the jackpot gets really big.

[Tippster]

...my retirement plan

oh yes, I take it very seriously

Heh.



I play - a dollar (well now 2 for PB) once a week or so - I switch between PB and MM now that DC is part of the MegaMillions lottery... whichever has the higher payout. Buys me some nice daydreams while waiting around at work. And yes, Brett - I play even when the winnings are under $10M.

[Cayuse]

Yeah, I play every now and then. Cheap daydreams for a couple days..

Sent from my Thunderbolt using TGR Forums

[Danno]

I play every now and then, though I stopped playing PB when they started charging $2, because my rule is never more than $1. So I buy MM or the CO Lottery. I put the tickets in my wallet and don't check them for a couple of months. That way, the dream (which is what I am really buying) lasts a little longer, because I could be a millionaire right now and not even know it!

[PNWbrit]

NPR show Freakonomics had an interesting piece on lottery economics, Prize Linked Savings Plans and stuff. Worth a listen.

[Ted Striker]

[Kied]

I play every now and then, though I stopped playing PB when they started charging $2, because my rule is never more than $1. So I buy MM or the CO Lottery. I put the tickets in my wallet and don't check them for a couple of months. That way, the dream (which is what I am really buying) lasts a little longer, because I could be a millionaire right now and not even know it!

Same strategy here. Sit on 'em, and prolong the dream.

[::: :::]

Megamillions up to $970m
cash option at $548m
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mega-millions-jackpot-970-million-jackpot-today-2018-10-18/
drawing on Fri


Powerball up to $430m and a drawing tonight

[riser4]

I play every now and then, though I stopped playing PB when they started charging $2, because my rule is never more than $1. So I buy MM or the CO Lottery. I put the tickets in my wallet and don't check them for a couple of months. That way, the dream (which is what I am really buying) lasts a little longer, because I could be a millionaire right now and not even know it!

Tri-state MegaBucks had a VT winner for an 11mil jackpot last week. I couldn't bear to check my ticket so as to keep the dream alive. Then I saw on WCAX that the ticket was purchased at some other store. Way to ruin the dream. Thanks.

[skaredshtles]

Statistically speaking, buying a ticket doesn't actually increase your odds of winning.

[::: :::]

Statistically speaking, buying a ticket doesn't actually increase your odds of winning.

compared to not buying a ticket?

[Danno]

Statistically speaking, buying a ticket doesn't actually increase your odds of winning.

statistically speaking, you'd be wrong. I have a less than zero chance of winning if I have a ticket; there is a probability greater than zero that we can assign to me, it just might take a few (hundred) decimal places. Whereas you have a zero chance of winning, and no amount of decimal places will lift you above zero. Math. It's hard.

[liv2ski]

Shit, that is a lot of money. Guess I need to buy a ticket

[OregonDead]

That's right you don't have to buy a ticket to win the lottery. I can't count the number of times I've won small amounts but I've never won from a ticket that I bought. Someone might just find the winning ticket or have it given to them. I wonder what percentage of winners actually buy their own ticket.

compared to not buying a ticket?

[PNWbrit]

statistically speaking, you'd be wrong. I have a less than zero chance of winning if I have a ticket; there is a probability greater than zero that we can assign to me, it just might take a few (hundred) decimal places. Whereas you have a zero chance of winning, and no amount of decimal places will lift you above zero. Math. It's hard.

You could find the winning ticket. Odds of that happening would be similar to buying it...

Recently heard this show on NPR that discussed lottery winning probability.

VEDANTAM: Sometimes math can help us understand the magic, magic like winning the lottery, not just once but several times. That's what happened to a woman named Joan Ginther.

MAZUR: In 1993, I think it was, she won $5.4 million in Texas lotto. Thirteen years later, she won again, $2 million, and then a few years after that, she won $3 million. And then in 2010, she won $10 million.

VEDANTAM: What are the odds of one person winning the lottery four times?

MAZUR: Yeah, the odds are - I think somebody made a calculation, and I did too, that the odds are about 18 septillion to 1 against it happening.

VEDANTAM: Eighteen septillion to 1 - that's incomprehensible. For those who are not mathematicians, a septillion is one followed by 24 zeroes. But Joseph Mazur says we're actually asking the wrong question. Think about it this way - if I buy a lottery ticket and I ask the question what are the odds that I will win, my odds are very small. But if I ask what are the odds that anyone will win the lottery in a country of hundreds of millions of people, the odds are actually much higher. So if you ask the question slightly differently, not what are the odds that Joan Ginther will win the lottery four times, but what are the odds that any one will win four times, you get a very different answer.

MAZUR: I think I calculated at one point about 5 million to 1, which is not anywhere near the septillions. It's about 5 million to 1. And that - it takes into account the fact that we have thousands of lotteries in the world. I mean there are many lotteries, and many of them are big-time lotteries.

VEDANTAM: So 5 million to 1 - still unlikely, but not incomprehensible. What makes it even more comprehensible is the fact that most lottery winners don't stop gambling when they win.

MAZUR: And you do find that almost everybody who does win a lottery fairly big-time spends all that money or much of that money in trying to win again.

VEDANTAM: Joseph Mazur says this might have been the case with Joan Ginther.

MAZUR: You win $5.4 million, you have - you have money to play with. You have house money. So you're - you're not taking the house money to bet again. And her odds of winning a second time are better than most people because she's got the money to play with. She wins a second time. Then she's playing with more money. And you can see the - between the first winning and the second winning, it was 13 years. Between the second winning and the third, it was only two years. And between the third and the fourth was only two years as well.

VEDANTAM: So Joseph Mazer can wrap his head around what happened to Joan Ginther, but there are some coincidences that just defy mathematical interpretation.

[MontuckyFried]

When I win Friday's jackpot, the next BBI is 100% on me! Heck. Might even buy whatever mountain we're doing it at and make it a TGR exclusive ski resort with lifetime membership for all you mofos.

Whenever some idiot who won a jackpot goes broke within a year, we all wonder how the heck that's possible. Oh, just watch me. I'll make it happen in a month. Muahahaha...

[Art Shirk]

I run a pool @ work when the jackpot gets really big.

I was asked if I wanted to run a MM pool this week. I can think of no worse hell than managing a split of hundreds of millions of dollars for dozens of rabid money-grubbing, self-important lawyers and salespeople on the off chance someone wins in exchange for virtually non-existent odds increase.

[skaredshtles]

statistically speaking, you'd be wrong. I have a less than zero chance of winning if I have a ticket; there is a probability greater than zero that we can assign to me, it just might take a few (hundred) decimal places. Whereas you have a zero chance of winning, and no amount of decimal places will lift you above zero. Math. It's hard.

I guess if you consider a 0.0000003863% chance better than 0.0000000000% then, by all means, do so.

But, statistically speaking - those are both a 0% chance.