20k bet on Packers going 19-0 paying 100-1... what do you do?

**pappag** · 12-02-2011, 11:46 AM

When the book offers you a 100k buyout.
Take it or let it ride?

And yes, there are true life implications on this... sadly, I'm not involved.

**4matic** · 12-02-2011, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by PappaG

When the book offers you a 100k buyout.
Take it or let it ride?

And yes, there are true life implications on this... sadly, I'm not involved.

Take the money. They have a tough schedule the rest of the year and some of those teams NEED wins in December.

**huckbucket** · 12-02-2011, 11:54 AM

Guaranteed 5 bag? No bainer.

**skifishbum** · 12-02-2011, 12:00 PM

shoot the bookie take it all
and take the hostages heliskiing with hookers and Blow?

**Neezer** · 12-02-2011, 12:04 PM

I am a Packer fan, but I say you take the 100k. They will be set for home field here in another week or so depending on the 9ers, they play detroit and chicago again, and both teams are in the hunt with wins, also the giants need a win this weekend.

gonna be tough.

**4matic** · 12-02-2011, 12:04 PM

Originally Posted by Neezer

I am a Packer fan, but I say you take the 100k. They will be set for home field here in another week or so depending on the 9ers, they play detroit and chicago again, and both teams are in the hunt with wins, also the giants need a win this weekend.

gonna be tough.

Raiders are for real with Palmer too.

**DasBlunt** · 12-02-2011, 12:08 PM

Shit, the NFL payoff referees, just like NBA, someone has more money than Green Bay. Take the payoff.

**PassTheDutchie** · 12-02-2011, 12:09 PM

You counter, asking for $200k.

**skifishbum** · 12-02-2011, 12:10 PM

only takes a couple blown coverages on any given sunday or monday night for the superbowl schuffle crew
once them playoffs start fail= no superbowl schufflin and IMO it was best for the bears to loose that game
to ironically miami

**4matic** · 12-02-2011, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by PassTheDutchie

You counter, asking for $200k.

I'm guessing that's the offer for this weekend. It will go up on Monday. Are you feeling lucky?

**Brock Landers** · 12-02-2011, 12:18 PM

Bet 100k on the giants money line. If packers win, take the 200k or whatever it goes up to next week (or do the same thing). If giants win, you get 150k or whatever and lose your 20k original bet

**MotherFucker** · 12-02-2011, 12:19 PM

Take the 100k.

I'd be shocked if the starters don't sit at least one game to rest for the playoffs. It's backfired on teams on the past but coaches always take the safe route, as they should.

**Grange** · 12-02-2011, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Take the money. They have a tough schedule the rest of the year and some of those teams NEED wins in December.

An undefeated regular season is not my biggest concern with the Packers. With 5 games left and three at home going 16-0 is a real possibility. This weekend's game against the Giants will be the toughest. The Giants need a win, but seeing as how the Saints dismantled the Giants should really scare the Giants because the Packers have an even better quarterback and offense than the Saints. The Raiders have to come to Green Bay which is generally pretty tough and then the Packers play at Kansas City, which shouldn't be too big of a challenge. The Raiders are already 1st in their conference so their backs won't be against the wall. The last two games are at home against two teams they know well and have already beat this year. Add in that one team (Bears) will be without their starting QB and the other is a dome team with a QB with a history of interceptions going against the best intercepting defense in the league and 16-0 doesn't sound out of the question.

All that said come playoffs they'll likely see teams with solid offenses and QB's so their porous middle of the field defense is a real cause for concern. Take away Clay Matthews and the Packers don't have any top linebackers, which has been their big weakness. Their DB's are good to great but they can only cover so long. I would not make that bet because I think even if they go 16-0 all the way through the playoffs is too damn risky.

**Boomer28** · 12-02-2011, 12:24 PM

They have 5 reg. season games left:
Giants, Raiders, Chiefs, Bears, Lions

They will play hard in the next 2 for sure I feel and the Chiefs sucks so that leaves 2 borderline playoff teams who could be fighting for their playoff lives. Then 3 more as they will get a first round bye. The only 2 teams I really see giving them trouble are the Saints & Niners and then whoever from the AFC.

I think they go 14-0 easily but as mentioned the Bears & Lions could be going hard for the wild card and McCarthy might want to rest starters.

So 8 games left assuming they go to the Superbowl, which I think is pretty likely baring some injury. What do you do? Hedge. Not sure exactly but I'm sure there is a way to protect your 20k and come in well north of 100k but short of the 2mm payday.

It could be done on a game-by-game basis or you could look for counter odds to your original bet mixed in. I'm sure some sharp could figure it out as sure as I am that the 100k offer is crap.

**ass-to-mouth** · 12-02-2011, 12:29 PM

Let it ride. Roger Goodell wants GB to go 19-0.

**butterscotch** · 12-02-2011, 01:00 PM

If you had 20k to blow at the beginning of the season, you have 20k to blow now.

Be a man, let it ride.

**liv2ski** · 12-02-2011, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by butterscotch

If you had 20k to blow at the beginning of the season, you have 20k to blow now.

Be a man, let it ride.

I call bullshit that the bet was made. Show me the ticket. But ya, if you have the jack and the stupidity to plunk down $20k on such a dumb fuckin bet, let it ride. Or use your brain and take the $100k. Show us how smart you were.

**pappag** · 12-02-2011, 01:23 PM

He didn't take the 100k offer.

If you had 20k to blow on a prop bet, 100k isn't too impressive. What the guy should have done was bet 20k on the Packers first game of the season and keep rolling the winnings into the next game. Likely would have been near 2MM now.

**TahoeJ** · 12-02-2011, 01:40 PM

Take the money. The 49ers match up really well with them (best D in football and they can run the ball). Plus, it's just really tough to win back to back Championships in any sport.

**TahoeJ** · 12-02-2011, 01:41 PM

There may be a clever way to hedge this bet. You should seriously tell your friend to e-mail Bill Barnwell at Grantland.com and ask him.

**gatorboy** · 12-02-2011, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by PappaG

What the guy should have done was bet 20k on the Packers first game of the season and keep rolling the winnings into the next game. Likely would have been near 2MM now.

2 million? I'm not sure of that....I'd like to see the math. Considering he wouldn't be playing even money with a spread....more likely is a less-than-even-money money line. (example - bet $100 to win $50).

UNLESS they have covered the spread in every game (doubtful).

**gatorboy** · 12-02-2011, 01:52 PM

BTW - bookie or sports book?

**pappag** · 12-02-2011, 02:16 PM

You're right. Unless my math is wrong, you'd be sitting on 250k right now going to 340k if they win Sunday.

-240 wk 1 - 20k for 28k
-500 wk 2 - 28k for 34k
-600 wk 3 - 34k for 40k
-255 wk 4 - 40k for 56k
-255 wk 5 - 56k for 78k
-925 wk 6 - 78k for 86k
-450 wk 7 - 86k for 105k
-250 wk 9 - 105k for 147k
-800 wk 10 - 147k for 165k
-900 wk 11 - 165k for 183k
-260 wk 12 - 183k for 253k

EDIT - sports book.