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Thread: Forecasting Tools
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11-09-2011, 10:19 AM #1
Forecasting Tools
Which forecasting tool/site do you trust the most? The bastards at Noaa are always wrong.
Behold my fluffy goodness, you bastard.
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11-09-2011, 10:21 AM #2
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11-09-2011, 10:23 AM #3
^what he said. the weather sites I like the most are nws and wunderground
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11-09-2011, 10:30 AM #4
NOAA/NWS are the people who provide (almost) all the info that other forecasters from the channel 3 weather and traffic bimbo right up to those produced for airlines/military/NASA/FEMA.
You should read the forecast discussion bulletin issued by your local NWS office which details their latest model runs and compares the various results and confidence in forecast, trends for future forecast, etc.. Your local Avalanche center relies heavily on NWS forecast and modelling many share office space. Obviously they will have a product more suited to our needs. you might try looking for local University atmospherics department websites. Professor at UW runs a fascinating local weather blog.Last edited by PNWbrit; 11-09-2011 at 10:49 AM.
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11-09-2011, 11:04 AM #5
In the northwest, I prefer NWAC in the winter for a solid overview and discussion. Sometimes I'll go straight to the source and check out UW's high-res MM5 models to figure out more exactly when/where the weather is supposed to hit.
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11-09-2011, 11:09 AM #6
for Canada, the new avalanche bulletin system was unveiled here at the University of Calgary this morning. Easy to understand, icon-based system.
http://avalanche.pc.gc.ca/bulletin-e...=1&d=TODAY&r=3
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11-09-2011, 12:37 PM #7
Opensnow.com seems to be very Maggot friendly. Possibly even made by a Maggot. It gives me exactly what I want.
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11-09-2011, 12:41 PM #8
Not anymore.... until said maggot changes it back to being more user friendly.
I think NOAA is the best bet out there- it seems like all the other one-off forecast sites just take the NWS forecast and re-word it for their target audience. Sure, NOAA (weather.gov, BTW) misses the size of the storm fairly regularly, but they typically hit on when the storm is coming- with mountains in the picture, I don't think any forecast is ever that good. I mean hell, in what other industry can you forecast with as wide of a range as weather guys (2-8", 10-degree guarantee, etc) and have it be acceptable?
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11-09-2011, 12:46 PM #9
snow-forecast.com
mountain-forecast.comAlways do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.
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11-09-2011, 12:48 PM #10
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11-09-2011, 01:24 PM #11
With regard to snow totals..
NOAA = usually pretty conservative
snowforecast.com = very optimistic.
Snow totals are usually somewhere in between.
I like this 24 hour loop.
If you want to go weather geek, unisys has tons of info..like this,
IMO, the CAIC is usually the most accurate.
YMMV.
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11-09-2011, 01:37 PM #12Registered User
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Soylent - up until this year the forecaster who runs opensnow.com (yes, a maggot) ran a site called Colorado Powder Forecast that was extremely useful and straightforward with excellent commentary and forecasting for the CO regions.
That same information (for the most part) is still available on the new opensnow.com site for CO, but just requires jumping through a few hoops and in not quite as straightforward and user friendly of a format.
The forecaster clearly knows his CO weather, and I can certainly understanding wanting to move on to bigger and better through the launch of opensnow.com and wish the operator nothing but the best of luck in his endevor, but it's just a little painful to lose the beauty of a sight that CPF was...Corner store junkies giving advice
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11-09-2011, 01:47 PM #13
What happened to the Red Baron?
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11-09-2011, 01:47 PM #14
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11-09-2011, 01:52 PM #15
Around Jackson we're pretty lucky to have Woody, http://www.mountainweather.com/.
Something about the wrinkle in your forehead tells me there's a fit about to get thrown
And I never hear a single word you say when you tell me not to have my fun
It's the same old shit that I ain't gonna take off anyone.
and I never had a shortage of people tryin' to warn me about the dangers I pose to myself.
Patterson Hood of the DBT's
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11-09-2011, 02:02 PM #16
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11-09-2011, 02:03 PM #17
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11-09-2011, 02:08 PM #18
I agree, snow-forecast is total shit.
Someone mentioned the MM5 from the U of Washington: 12km Domain and 36km Domain. I've had good luck with it's accuracy and timing. Pretty easy to read, if it's red it's going to dump (or piss rain depending on temps). The temperature model is good too... 1500m Temps & 3000m Temps
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11-10-2011, 08:06 AM #19
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/education.php
start studying, or go to college and do it better.
On the EC we only have so many days, so we suck it up and ride.
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11-12-2011, 02:06 PM #20Registered User
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11-12-2011, 02:45 PM #21
For satellite images, I like http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/. It has visible, infrared, and water vapor imagery. This, combined with the NWAC information and the NWS forecast discussion give me a good idea of what to expect.
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11-12-2011, 03:06 PM #22Registered User
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UBC also has a pretty good setup for the coast mountains (4km resolution) here:
http://weather.eos.ubc.ca/wxfcst/
And if you don't mind contour plots:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontrollerLast edited by theshredder; 11-20-2012 at 01:51 PM.
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11-12-2011, 05:19 PM #23
Noaa has a topo map available. If you click on the top of say, Aspen Highlands, it shows different snow totals than if you just get the forecast for Aspen. Also, I find that if I couple that with this web site http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream_fcsts.html that I can get a pretty good idea of what to expect. Watching the Jet Stream seems to help, at least in Co.
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11-12-2011, 05:47 PM #24
For EC conditions - FIS weather blogger Lionel Hutz is money when a storm is rolling in and you want to find the goods....
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/Climb the mountains and get their good tidings. Natures peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop away from you like the leaves of Autumn. - John Muir
"How long can it last? For fuck sake this isn't heroin -
suck it up princess" - XXX on getting off mj
“This is infinity here,” he said. “It could be infinity. We don’t really don’t know. But it could be. It has to be something — but it could be infinity, right?” - Trump, on the vastness of space, man
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11-13-2011, 03:22 AM #25Registered User
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/
Uw models for Northwest.
Wunderground has detailed Euro access with snowfall for every 3 hour interval.
http://www.wunderground.com/wunderma...=0&ls=0&rad2=0
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