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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
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    ON YOUR PLATE
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    Forecasting Tools

    Which forecasting tool/site do you trust the most? The bastards at Noaa are always wrong.

    Behold my fluffy goodness, you bastard.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
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    Seattle
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    33,546
    Quote Originally Posted by Pancakes View Post
    Noaa is always wrong.
    forecasting not an exact science... neither is English.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Montana
    Posts
    51
    ^what he said. the weather sites I like the most are nws and wunderground

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
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    Seattle
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    NOAA/NWS are the people who provide (almost) all the info that other forecasters from the channel 3 weather and traffic bimbo right up to those produced for airlines/military/NASA/FEMA.

    You should read the forecast discussion bulletin issued by your local NWS office which details their latest model runs and compares the various results and confidence in forecast, trends for future forecast, etc.. Your local Avalanche center relies heavily on NWS forecast and modelling many share office space. Obviously they will have a product more suited to our needs. you might try looking for local University atmospherics department websites. Professor at UW runs a fascinating local weather blog.
    Last edited by PNWbrit; 11-09-2011 at 10:49 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    SnoqWA
    Posts
    2,599
    In the northwest, I prefer NWAC in the winter for a solid overview and discussion. Sometimes I'll go straight to the source and check out UW's high-res MM5 models to figure out more exactly when/where the weather is supposed to hit.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Rogers Pass
    Posts
    385
    for Canada, the new avalanche bulletin system was unveiled here at the University of Calgary this morning. Easy to understand, icon-based system.

    http://avalanche.pc.gc.ca/bulletin-e...=1&d=TODAY&r=3

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    942
    Opensnow.com seems to be very Maggot friendly. Possibly even made by a Maggot. It gives me exactly what I want.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Three-O-Three
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    15,418
    Quote Originally Posted by soylent green View Post
    Opensnow.com seems to be very Maggot friendly. Possibly even made by a Maggot. It gives me exactly what I want.
    Not anymore.... until said maggot changes it back to being more user friendly.

    I think NOAA is the best bet out there- it seems like all the other one-off forecast sites just take the NWS forecast and re-word it for their target audience. Sure, NOAA (weather.gov, BTW) misses the size of the storm fairly regularly, but they typically hit on when the storm is coming- with mountains in the picture, I don't think any forecast is ever that good. I mean hell, in what other industry can you forecast with as wide of a range as weather guys (2-8", 10-degree guarantee, etc) and have it be acceptable?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Pemberton
    Posts
    449
    snow-forecast.com
    mountain-forecast.com
    Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    942
    Quote Originally Posted by smmokan View Post
    Not anymore.... until said maggot changes it back to being more user friendly.

    I think NOAA is the best bet out there- it seems like all the other one-off forecast sites just take the NWS forecast and re-word it for their target audience. Sure, NOAA (weather.gov, BTW) misses the size of the storm fairly regularly, but they typically hit on when the storm is coming- with mountains in the picture, I don't think any forecast is ever that good. I mean hell, in what other industry can you forecast with as wide of a range as weather guys (2-8", 10-degree guarantee, etc) and have it be acceptable?
    I have no idea what you are talking about??

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    7500'
    Posts
    240
    With regard to snow totals..

    NOAA = usually pretty conservative

    snowforecast.com = very optimistic.

    Snow totals are usually somewhere in between.

    I like this 24 hour loop.

    If you want to go weather geek, unisys has tons of info..like this,

    IMO, the CAIC is usually the most accurate.

    YMMV.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Edgewater, CO
    Posts
    696
    Soylent - up until this year the forecaster who runs opensnow.com (yes, a maggot) ran a site called Colorado Powder Forecast that was extremely useful and straightforward with excellent commentary and forecasting for the CO regions.

    That same information (for the most part) is still available on the new opensnow.com site for CO, but just requires jumping through a few hoops and in not quite as straightforward and user friendly of a format.

    The forecaster clearly knows his CO weather, and I can certainly understanding wanting to move on to bigger and better through the launch of opensnow.com and wish the operator nothing but the best of luck in his endevor, but it's just a little painful to lose the beauty of a sight that CPF was...
    Corner store junkies giving advice

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    river city
    Posts
    2,205
    What happened to the Red Baron?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Near Perimetr.
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    3,857
    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Farcisimus View Post
    snow-forecast.com
    Why the fuck do you post those websites? For the last ten years they have provided nothing but haphazard guesses, the day after.

    The most pisspoorpieces of shit ever created to the interweb.

    The floggings will continue until morale improves.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    crown of the continent
    Posts
    13,947
    Around Jackson we're pretty lucky to have Woody, http://www.mountainweather.com/.
    Something about the wrinkle in your forehead tells me there's a fit about to get thrown
    And I never hear a single word you say when you tell me not to have my fun
    It's the same old shit that I ain't gonna take off anyone.
    and I never had a shortage of people tryin' to warn me about the dangers I pose to myself.

    Patterson Hood of the DBT's

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    942
    Quote Originally Posted by miahw2828 View Post
    Soylent - up until this year the forecaster who runs opensnow.com (yes, a maggot) ran a site called Colorado Powder Forecast that was extremely useful and straightforward with excellent commentary and forecasting for the CO regions.

    That same information (for the most part) is still available on the new opensnow.com site for CO, but just requires jumping through a few hoops and in not quite as straightforward and user friendly of a format.

    The forecaster clearly knows his CO weather, and I can certainly understanding wanting to move on to bigger and better through the launch of opensnow.com and wish the operator nothing but the best of luck in his endevor, but it's just a little painful to lose the beauty of a sight that CPF was...
    Oh, I agree with that. The website doesn't flow as well. It seems like he's done away with forcing you to log on the get the whole forecast summary. CAIC is my go to forecast for accuracy.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    942
    Quote Originally Posted by Lexi-Bell View Post
    What happened to the Red Baron?
    Red Baron was GREAT!

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    263
    Quote Originally Posted by Meathelmet View Post
    Why the fuck do you post those websites? For the last ten years they have provided nothing but haphazard guesses, the day after.

    The most pisspoorpieces of shit ever created to the interweb.
    I agree, snow-forecast is total shit.

    Someone mentioned the MM5 from the U of Washington: 12km Domain and 36km Domain. I've had good luck with it's accuracy and timing. Pretty easy to read, if it's red it's going to dump (or piss rain depending on temps). The temperature model is good too... 1500m Temps & 3000m Temps

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wrong Island
    Posts
    102
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/education.php
    start studying, or go to college and do it better.
    On the EC we only have so many days, so we suck it up and ride.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Seattle
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    1,991
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Casino View Post
    I agree, snow-forecast is total shit.

    Someone mentioned the MM5 from the U of Washington: 12km Domain and 36km Domain. I've had good luck with it's accuracy and timing. Pretty easy to read, if it's red it's going to dump (or piss rain depending on temps). The temperature model is good too... 1500m Temps & 3000m Temps
    Love these. Thank you for sharing.

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Bellingham WA
    Posts
    72
    For satellite images, I like http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/. It has visible, infrared, and water vapor imagery. This, combined with the NWAC information and the NWS forecast discussion give me a good idea of what to expect.

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    mcflattown
    Posts
    724
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Casino View Post
    I agree, snow-forecast is total shit.

    Someone mentioned the MM5 from the U of Washington: 12km Domain and 36km Domain. I've had good luck with it's accuracy and timing. Pretty easy to read, if it's red it's going to dump (or piss rain depending on temps). The temperature model is good too... 1500m Temps & 3000m Temps
    UBC also has a pretty good setup for the coast mountains (4km resolution) here:

    http://weather.eos.ubc.ca/wxfcst/

    And if you don't mind contour plots:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller
    Last edited by theshredder; 11-20-2012 at 01:51 PM.

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Posts
    616
    Noaa has a topo map available. If you click on the top of say, Aspen Highlands, it shows different snow totals than if you just get the forecast for Aspen. Also, I find that if I couple that with this web site http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream_fcsts.html that I can get a pretty good idea of what to expect. Watching the Jet Stream seems to help, at least in Co.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    E >>> W
    Posts
    3,653
    For EC conditions - FIS weather blogger Lionel Hutz is money when a storm is rolling in and you want to find the goods....

    http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/
    Climb the mountains and get their good tidings. Natures peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop away from you like the leaves of Autumn. - John Muir

    "How long can it last? For fuck sake this isn't heroin -
    suck it up princess" - XXX on getting off mj

    “This is infinity here,” he said. “It could be infinity. We don’t really don’t know. But it could be. It has to be something — but it could be infinity, right?” - Trump, on the vastness of space, man

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    129
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/

    Uw models for Northwest.

    Wunderground has detailed Euro access with snowfall for every 3 hour interval.
    http://www.wunderground.com/wunderma...=0&ls=0&rad2=0

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