Uncertainty & Desire

[DasBlunt]

Dang. I read it once in September/October now I'm about 3/4 of the way through on my second read. It really is extremely well put together and understandable. It has really shown me how complex avalanches really are and how many factors go into creating safe or unsafe conditions.

amazing book for sure.

[CookieMonster]

I like the order of this, helps make it VERY simple in desirable high altitude situations.

I have spent the summer doing daily "book reports" of each chapter in Bruce Tremper's book. The thing about his book is how perfect it is....almost too perfect/technical. I have pages of notes, but your 8 lines above really helps distill that work and knowledge.

This is a fantastic way to learn, and I'm impressed.

You probably don't have limitless time, but it would be very cool if you made a short exam for each chapter.

Post it here and I bet the mods would sticky it.

[tone capone]

Really dig your blog, Cookie Monster. Thanks for the link.

[CookieMonster]

Really dig your blog, Cookie Monster. Thanks for the link.

Thanks for the kind words tone_capone. I do appreciate it.

[stalefish3169]

I adapt to uncertainty in an exponential manner. If I'm twice as uncertain, I'm four times as conservative. Obviously, this is theoretical, but you get the point.

As for desire, it can be rough when buddies come up to AK expecting the ultimate, and I can't fulfill their wants because it's not the right time. That being said, when it's go time, there is nothing more fun than stepping it up.

P.S. Your blog is spectacular.

[CookieMonster]

Thanks to everyone for the great and informed responses. I'm trying to stay out of the conversation as much as possible because there aren't really any right or wrong answers. I'd like to pose another question:

Do you feel that uncertainty and desire put you at risk for making errors? Can you connect uncertainty and desire, either separately or in conjunction, to errors you've made in the past?

I adapt to uncertainty in an exponential manner. If I'm twice as uncertain, I'm four times as conservative. Obviously, this is theoretical, but you get the point.

As for desire, it can be rough when buddies come up to AK expecting the ultimate, and I can't fulfill their wants because it's not the right time. That being said, when it's go time, there is nothing more fun than stepping it up.

This is interesting. I've never thought about A. ) quantifying conservatism, or B. ) what sort of formula might exist. But I like this "twice as uncertain, four times as conservative" concept very much. It's very clear and easy to understand.

P.S. Your blog is spectacular.

Thanks for the kind words. This is the nicest compliment I've received. The emails and anonymous comments I get aren't always nice!

[ellyka112]

This is a good discussion topic.

Most of my travel plans and decisions are based on certainty so I rarely find myself in an uncertain situation. That being said, if I'm ever caught in an uncertain situation, staying alive always trumps desire.

for me, it's a constant battle to make sound choices. as i get older the risks seem to be more apparent, even when the desire is high. realistically there are still too many variables that affect my desire and my ability to make my perception match the reality. i try to err on the cautious side and hope i make the right decision when it counts.

[Missing Link]

If you have a "desire" to live, you reduce "uncertainty" by making informed decisions. If you are unable to make an informed decision about stability, which can be difficult, select terrain that is non-consequential. End of dilemma.

Backcountry skiing does not always have to be status statement thats judged by slope angle.

ML

[CookieMonster]

If you have a "desire" to live, you reduce "uncertainty" by making informed decisions.

I don't think you can reduce uncertainty by making informed decisions.

If you are unable to make an informed decision about stability, which can be difficult, select terrain that is non-consequential. End of dilemma.

This is absolutely right.

[Missing Link]

How do you reduce uncertainty without gathering information?

If I think I'm driving down the wrong side of the road, but I'm uncertain, I look for information that will reduce my uncertainty. As I see the headlamps coming straight at me I take that information and error correct.

I have now made an informed decision and have completely reduced my uncertainty.

ML

[CookieMonster]

If you have a "desire" to live, you reduce "uncertainty" by making informed decisions.

You cannot reduce uncertainty by making informed decisions. You must consider uncertainty in order to characterise any decision as "informed".

If I think I'm driving down the wrong side of the road, but I'm uncertain, I look for information that will reduce my uncertainty. As I see the headlamps coming straight at me I take that information and error correct.

This is a pretty black and white example, and it's the information reduces your uncertainty, not the decision. The decision is simply the reaction. Your example does describe the decision process accurately, in that it's ongoing, integrative, and continuously adaptive.

Anyway, the example you provide is akin to observing Class I data such as cracking or whumpfing or avalanches. In these cases, it is very easy to say that the snow is absolutely unstable.

Unfortunately, because the winter snowpack is conditionally unstable throughout most of the winter, it becomes very difficult to reduce uncertainty to zero at most times and places.

I'm curious about the degree to which people formally consider desire and uncertainty in the backcountry. Specifically how it makes them feel, and how they react to it.

[Missing Link]

CM, good discussion. So many places to go with it!

CM

and it's the information reduces your uncertainty, not the decision

The information I gather will certainly influence my decision, no matter how black and white it is. The idea behind gathering information is to reduce or add to my uncertainty which will in turn affect my decision. The more informed I am regarding my surroundings, the better equipped I am to make a decision that does not succumb to the emotions of desire when we're talking powder runs. "We must make order out of the chaos" (W. Munter) is in part dealing with the "uncertainty" aspect of the equation. I accomplish this with a checklist approach in the planning phase. "The Checklist Manifesto" (Atul Gawande) http://www.facebook.com/search.php?q...reload#!/AIARE

So far as "formally" considering desire and uncertainty. I'm not familiar with any formal recording standards tied to either of those elements. What modern brain researchers will tell you, such as Johna Lehrer, author of "How We Decide" whose research in part is based on FMRI scans conducted on humans, is that emotions and logic are present yet play unequal roles in the decision making process; too much logic and you're lost in the inability to move forward, too much emotion and we all know what types of decisions that will lead to.

So that leaves us with considering that when traveling in the BC with friends in search of awesome turns, that we need to "think about how we think" - that emotion/desire and uncertainty go hand and hand in the decision making process and that we'd better consider how they conspire well prior to reaching any decision points in hazardous terrain.

In closing I would say that formally I consider uncertainty and desire by having options in hand prior to going out - a preferred and alternative option in hand and discussed with my touring partners prior to travel in hazardous environments. There is no question about how the desire of awesome powder or a long sought after objective will make me feel - how I react to it is the crux and that reaction needs to be injected with some degree of logic that revolves around the process of an informed decision.

ML

[CookieMonster]

CM, good discussion. So many places to go with it!

CM


The information I gather will certainly influence my decision, no matter how black and white it is. The idea behind gathering information is to reduce or add to my uncertainty which will in turn affect my decision. The more informed I am regarding my surroundings, the better equipped I am to make a decision that does not succumb to the emotions of desire when we're talking powder runs. "We must make order out of the chaos" (W. Munter) is in part dealing with the "uncertainty" aspect of the equation. I accomplish this with a checklist approach in the planning phase. "The Checklist Manifesto" (Atul Gawande) http://www.facebook.com/search.php?q...reload#!/AIARE

So far as "formally" considering desire and uncertainty. I'm not familiar with any formal recording standards tied to either of those elements. What modern brain researchers will tell you, such as Johna Lehrer, author of "How We Decide" whose research in part is based on FMRI scans conducted on humans, is that emotions and logic are present yet play unequal roles in the decision making process; too much logic and you're lost in the inability to move forward, too much emotion and we all know what types of decisions that will lead to.

So that leaves us with considering that when traveling in the BC with friends in search of awesome turns, that we need to "think about how we think" - that emotion/desire and uncertainty go hand and hand in the decision making process and that we'd better consider how they conspire well prior to reaching any decision points in hazardous terrain.

In closing I would say that formally I consider uncertainty and desire by having options in hand prior to going out - a preferred and alternative option in hand and discussed with my touring partners prior to travel in hazardous environments. There is no question about how the desire of awesome powder or a long sought after objective will make me feel - how I react to it is the crux and that reaction needs to be injected with some degree of logic that revolves around the process of an informed decision.

ML

This is brilliant!

( And informative. )

[homemadesalsa]

Cookie Monster I think ML is getting close to your thoughts about trip planning helping to resolve uncertainty.

Great conversation.

Now, harnessing desire... is that a function of age, maturity, having children (I have heard that one many times from students), or what?

Looking at my reading, Deep Survival for example, taking an extra minute to think, let a decision go through the logic phase rather than the reactive phase of emotion, will help us avoid Desire taking over.

[CookieMonster]

Cookie Monster I think ML is getting close to your thoughts about trip planning helping to resolve uncertainty.

Great conversation.

Now, harnessing desire... is that a function of age, maturity, having children (I have heard that one many times from students), or what?

Looking at my reading, Deep Survival for example, taking an extra minute to think, let a decision go through the logic phase rather than the reactive phase of emotion, will help us avoid Desire taking over.

This great conversation has been buyoed significantly by your contributions!

You raise a really good point about taking that extra minute to allow things to settle. As a male, I battle with "reactive tendencies" fairly often ( in many areas of life ), but I try to use the well-being of my family as a reality check. As in "they don't deserve to suffer just because you need to let off some steam".

But things definitely weren't always this way... in fact it's embarrassing for me to even think about how stupid and foolishly self-centred I've been in the past.

So, as you have outlined above, in "hot situations", what do people use for a reality check that helps them insist upon that quiet minute?

I never want my family to sit at a frozen trailhead somewhere and wait for "news". That's my reality check.

[Missing Link]

CM - that reality check is likely to quell any frivolous desire!! ML

[homemadesalsa]

So, as you have outlined above, in "hot situations", what do people use for a reality check that helps them insist upon that quiet minute?

We've been teaching something called the "pre-mortem test," as opposed to the "post-mortem." In other words, what would the accident report say? "Avalanche professional misses obvious clues, caught in preventable slide." that one sometimes works for me.

[The Gnarwhale]

Yeah Lynne, I've been taught a similar way to reframe a potential action, though in a guiding context. It's slightly less morbid and hinges on "...your Honor" statements. As in "Yes, your Honor, I understood that was a hazard but...." Naturally the idea is that if the statement sounds eyebrow-raising in that phrasing, it probably is.

In the organization I work for it's something of a running quip. That's allowed it to be an accepted way to question a peer's judgment while side-stepping the tension that sort of conversation often carries.

[Alaskan Rover]

Interesting...juxtaposing uncertainty with desire, but I'm not sure that either can be fully divested from the other. If 'uncertainty' COULD be fully excised out of whatever endeavor, be it attempting that never before climbed face, or trying that cool but crazy steep chute you've been drooling over for three years but haven't yet attempted, would that not diminish the 'desire' of that endeavor to some extent...making it somehow less fulfilling when completed?

What brings me to the mountains is the same thing that brings me to sail offshore oceans...it is the fathoming of the depths of one's soul and the quickening of pulse one gets when attempting some adventure that is just a little bit unsure. It is just off the footpath of normalcy and fully in the territory of desire that one's heart beats the strongest and perhaps the truest.

Them's just my two thoughts on it, anyway.

[CookieMonster]

Thanks for the great contributions; this thread is good and interesting.

[JoeStrummer]

I'm 42 with a young son and the only things I desire without qualification are blowjobs and tax breaks.

If a questionable slope doesn't offer a greater chance of either of those two things, I find safer terrain.

[pbourdon]

This is a phenomenal thread....subscribed

[mrwaffles989]

I think a good idea is to get a card and laminate it, maybe 4x6, and write down a checklist of the most important factors that contribute to avalanches. It would be a reliable and methodical way to keep track of the main factors for avalanches, and it would take away the possibility of overlooking or forgetting some important factors when in the heat of the moment in the BC. Before you enter a dangerous area just look at the list and then look for those warning signs on the slopes around you.

I made this last year. It's just one tool you could use in your avy toolbox. Good stuff in here.
[ame="http://tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2575506#post2575506"]Avalanche Safety Chart Thing - Teton Gravity Research Forums[/ame]

[neck beard]

Paj, what you are talking about sounds like the avaluator card. Pretty good for covering the basic 7 signs, makes sure you check those. Seems to be a lot of discussion on the application though in the ISSW thread. I wouldn't give it up as a checklist, but I don't use it as a green-light/red-light based upon adding up the scores.

The ISSW thread discussion is interesting.

More on the Avaluator, it has two applications within the package. One is the "Slope Evaluation Card" that Socialist mentioned. It is a plastic card slightly bigger than a credit card.

The other application is a "Trip Planner" inside the booklet. You can use it online here http://www.avalanche.ca/avaluator/
Input the parameters and the Trip Planner offers a recommendation.

There is a new V.2 Avaluator out this year and internally is seems the CAC are very committed to it.

[LeeLau]

My desire to ski steep exposed shit is very strong. How I'm trying to re-frame that desire is by re-reading events I've seen or re-live incidents in which I've been exposed. The sheer horror I feel and visceral nauseau I experience after doing so beats back the ski-steep-shit desire in me.

If you haven't had the pleasure of personal involvement in near-death situations read something unpleasant like Accidents in North American Mountaineering, first person accounts of burials and death, accounts of survivors guilt. There's plenty of that around and it might help one press the reset button on the testosterone meter

EDIT - I just realized that I didn't answer CM's question at all