New UCLA Study on This Year's La Nina/PDO/AMO Convergence

[LightRanger]

http://www.universityofcalifornia.ed.../article/24212

Scary as shit.

[geomorph]

Scary? I guess if you've been living in an arid region dividing up water based on normal flows that weren't normal at all and haven't come up with a good backup plan. But another word I would use to describe this situation is "expected"

[LightRanger]

Scary? I guess if you've been living in an arid region dividing up water based on normal flows that weren't normal at all and haven't come up with a good backup plan. But another word I would use to describe this situation is "expected"

Sure. No surprise to me. I'm familiar with the historic climatology of the area.





And it's still scary as shit.

[Rasputin]

Too many sun worshipers for the amount of moisture down there.

[DAFTC]

Interesting press release. Only read that since the JAWRA site is down right now.

MacDonald is pretty established, but it can get complicated to rigorously extend inference on a dendrochronological record from a fairly limited area (Uintas) to a much larger area (the entire Upper Colorado) experiencing some pretty different land cover and for a river system that doesn't bear much resemblance to its historical state.



None of which changes the fact that water infrastructure and associated development in the Southwest/SoCA are tragicomic, making the general contours of the near to mid-term water scarcity both expected and scary.

[SterlingSpikeDancer]

AND it seems like most La Nina years in the upper Upper Colorado region (Rockies) usually get more snowpack in those years. So, even if there is a decline in the Uinta's snowpack, if there is a corresponding increase in the Upper Basins located in Colorado and SE Wyo, wouldn't it be a wash?

Ahhh, fuckit...the SKY IS FALLING THE SKY IS FALLING...there, all better.

[LightRanger]

None of which changes the fact that water infrastructure and associated development in the Southwest/SoCA are tragicomic, making the general contours of the near to mid-term water scarcity both expected and scary.

Word.

I don't think the development was smart, but the implications are scary nonetheless. That's what I was trying to say to geomorph.

Sterling, I think the far upper basin will do well, but much of it may not. We shall see. As everybody knows, trying to predict the weather is like...

Well, I don't know. It's hard though.

[QuikR12]

Looking at another implication of the water scarcity issue is in power production. A huge amount of the West's power is generated by large hydro,(~45% depending on location) which will generate less if there is less water. That means that with even normal weather seasons (not extremely hot or cold) we will be facing significant peaks in power prices, and possibly a return of the power stability issues. If the convergences of these three weather patterns brings unseasonably hot or cold weather, it could spell serious trouble.

[LightRanger]

Looking at another implication of the water scarcity issue is in power production. A huge amount of the West's power is generated by large hydro,(~45% depending on location) which will generate less if there is less water. That means that with even normal weather seasons (not extremely hot or cold) we will be facing significant peaks in power prices, and possibly a return of the power stability issues. If the convergences of these three weather patterns brings unseasonably hot or cold weather, it could spell serious trouble.

Yep. There's been a ton of news coverage lately about the water level in Mead being like 8 feet above cutback levels for power at Hoover's turbines.

The other MAJOR issue that hardly anybody is talking about is the mass quantities of water used by the new solar projects being proposed and approved in the Mojave. Interior just approved two new huge projects yesterday. And tons are in the pipeline (pardon the pun). Although these projects are "green," and that's awesome, many of them use much more water than even nuclear plants. R, check out this link: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternew...m_medium=email

[Hugh Conway]

Congress created this water crisis. Vote Republican 2010.

[LightRanger]

Congress created this water crisis. Vote Republican 2010.

Been drinkin' the I-5 Westlands Water District Koolaid, eh HC?

Those signs make me laugh out loud, seriously.

http://valleyecon.blogspot.com/2010/...n-decline.html

http://forecast.pacific.edu/water-jo...009_092810.pdf

And then there's the hysterical spew from no-talent assclown Devin Nunes:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/10/0...nia-water.html

[geomorph]

Didn't mean to make light of the situation. Just been to too many water conferences with scientists that have been saying for years that there is a problem but nothing being done about it [/jaded scientist]

[neckdeep]

Tell it to the Anasazi.....you ain't seen nuthin yet!



"We're using the trees as if they're surrogate rain gauges up in the mountains," Meko said.

Connie Woodhouse, an associate professor of geography, happened to be doing a study for the U.S. Geological Survey in Colorado to develop tree-ring chronologies relating to lakes, so they were able to divide the sites.

Meko had hoped to get past 1300 AD, but couldn't promise that he would. "But as it turned out," he said, "we found a good set of sites with wood that went back to 1200, and the oldest ones going way back before that."

What they documented, once the tree-ring samples were brought back to the lab and evaluated, was sobering – a drought of about six decades in the 12th century, "almost the whole lifetime of a person without having a wet year," he said.

"This was just a really unusual period in the mid-1100s, mainly for not having wet years. This gap of not having individual wet years – for around 60 years there was no real wet year – that type of scenario really has the water managers upset. We really depend on those single really wet years to fill up reservoirs."

The storage capacity of the reservoirs on the Colorado is about four years, Meko said. "We can't have just normal conditions to refill the reservoirs," he said. The worry is that with climate change there won't be the wet year that recharges the reservoirs.

[WICS]

Recent floodwaters in Australia relating to La Nina?
Anyone care?

-okbye